Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 300528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN


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