000
FXUS63 KABR 212330 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND TIMING THE END OF PRECIPITATION.

BREEZY...COOL...CLOUDY AND PERIODICALLY RAINY CONDITIONS PERSIST
AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY
OR COOLING A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S /WEST/ AND 50S /EAST/.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE SD/MN
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO RATHER SLOWLY PULL SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE...LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST ONE MORE SLUG OF
PRECIP WORKING SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF MN MAINLY INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF FORECAST ZONES LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION FINALLY COMES TO AN END DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE UP TO
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WEST-RIVER...TO UPWARDS OF HALF AN
INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST ZONES. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WHILE 925HPA THERMAL PROGS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS PERSIST. THEN...ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF FORECAST ZONES EXPECTED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK UP INTO THE 60S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BE EXITING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH RAIN ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD BE SETTING THE
STAGE FOR FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
WET SOILS...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. MODELS SHOWING JUST A BIT
OF A GRADIENT YET WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO RETURN
AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY. BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MODELS STILL SHOWING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC
DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY BEGIN INCREASING AS WELL. OF
COURSE...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS FAR OUT IN TIMING THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THAT WILL POTENTIALLY BE
TRAVELING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND POP GRIDS.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. VSBYS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE RAIN. MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME IFR
OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL RISE BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN