Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 010527 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BUT MAY
HAVE TO EXTEND MENTION OF RAIN IN THE NORTHEAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS GIVEN RADAR TRENDS. UPDATES OUT AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
DISSIPATE AS TIME GOES ON. THERE IS A GRADUAL CLEARING OF CLOUDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...BUT AS ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY
APPROACHES TONIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THE THE EASTERN CWA REMAINS
UNDER CLOUD COVER WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS WELL.

MONDAY...WARM AIR AND MOISTURE MAKE THEIR RETURN TO THE REGION. 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE BACK INTO THE TEENS /ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN OTHER MODELS/...AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO
STREAM BACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH
THE REGION. A 20 TO 30 KT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CWA OVERNIGHT. MODELS HINT AT PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND OF COURSE THIS MAY OR MAY
NOT INFLUENCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IF IT DOES OCCUR.

THE GULF REALLY OPENS UP TUESDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. MODELS SHOW INCREASING CAPE AND SHEAR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE GENERAL
IDEA IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AT
THE LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS. MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR SNEAKING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WHICH COULD INITIALLY LIMIT SOME CONVECTION OVER OUR
CWA...BUT ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK GENERALLY ON THE WETTER THAN NORMAL
SIDE AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROFFING REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH A 50H LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH DIGS IN AND CLOSES OFF
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA COAST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WE COULD STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LEAVES TO THE
EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN.
OTHERWISE...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WESTERN US TROUGH
WILL TRAVERSE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. STILL HAVE IN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH...HAVE TRIMMED THEM BACK SOME AND MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE
THEM OUT OF SOME OF THE PERIODS IN THE NEXT FORECAST. HIGHS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MOSTLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE TNT AROUND KMBG/KPIR. FOR NOW AM NOT
CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THEREFORE HAVE ONLY PUT SCT010 IN
THOSE TAFS FOR LATE TNT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE



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