Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 181725 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1225 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1021 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

The current forecast looks good. No changes planned at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Dry weather will return to the region, with lingering light shower
activity exiting by 12Z this morning. This period will be marked by
the 500mb low across central Saskatchewan and Manitoba slowly
exiting across northern Ontario by Wednesday and Thursday. A 500mb
trough extending from the low through MT/WY Tuesday night will swing
across our area Wednesday-Wednesday evening. Expect the 500mb trough
to shift to our east, across MN on Thursday, with ridging returning
to the Dakotas.

Meanwhile at the sfc, a weak cold front stretched west to east
across ND this morning will slowly sink to the ND/SD border by the
end of the day today. This will set the stage for cooler air to
slide in for Wednesday, as the frontal boundary sinks to our
southeast by 09Z Wednesday. Cool high pressure will then build in
and linger overhead through Thursday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday
will end up at to slightly below normal, ranging from 52 to 60F.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

For the vast majority of the long term the ABR CWA will be under the
influence of a mid level ridge. There are a couple of waves that
ride the ridge during the period, but at this time any measurable
pcpn associated with those waves looks unlikely given the dry
airmass in place. The next best chance for pcpn looks to be early
next week.  Temperatures, overall, should favor above normal through
the entire long term forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF




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