Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 230629 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
129 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 124 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 814 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

Forecast appears on track. Patchy fog/drizzle should continue
overnight with low cigs in place or developing. WAA kicks in late
with HRRR still indicating increasing coverage of
rain/thundershowers late. Temperatures look fine for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

The models have been consistent and agree well through the short
term. The large upper level low pressure trough over the southwest
U.S. will slowly lift northeast and into Southern Canada/Northern ND
through Saturday night. In response to this, a warm front will lift
northward across our cwa tonight and Friday. The areas of drizzle
and fog along with thick stratus clouds will likely continue into
the night with the low and mid level waa. Radar was showing many
weak returns this afternoon. The webcams and obs were also showing
some drizzle/light showers. Also, have in chances of showers and
thunderstorms for tonight and Friday with the waa. As the surface
low pressure area moves into SD Friday evening and then onto the
north into Saturday, a dry line/cool front in behind will sweep east
across our cwa Saturday and Saturday evening. Showers and storms may
develop along this boundary as it moves quickly east. Saturday night
looks to be dry and breezy with wrap around clouds beginning to
advect into the region from the northwest. After a cool day today,
it will be much warmer on Friday as the low clouds break up/move
north and we mix out the warmer ll air along with some sunshine.
Locations in our sw cwa may see the mid 80s. Saturday should become
mostly sunny in the dry slot of the upper low with highs mostly in
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

Period starts off with an upper level low over the region. Area will
be on the cold air advection side of the low Sunday into Monday,
with cool temperatures, breezy winds, and potential for showers.
Although, there are still some differences noted amongst the models
regarding the exact track of the upper low, which does influence
shower potential across the area. For right now, will keep low
chances in the forecast but did increase chances a bit Sunday
afternoon. Removed POPs across the eastern CWA towards the end of
the period, which seemed to be hanging onto precip chances too long
as the upper low departed. The GFS keeps the low around much longer
than the EC, so SuperBlend is picking up on this solution a bit. If
the GFS starts to trend more towards the EC, then POPs can likely be
removed for Monday night and perhaps even Monday.

Looking towards the middle of next week, there will be some cool
overnight lows as a surface ridge sets up over the area. Overall,
the air mass itself is not terribly chilly, with 850MB temps in the
+5C to +10C range.  But, given the longer nights, any length of time
under clear skies and light winds will allow temps to tumble. For
right now, left inherited Superblend temps, but will monitor for
potential lowering in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 124 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

A mix of mvfr/ifr cigs and vfr/sub-vfr visbies is expected to
persist across the region through Friday morning. Most cigs should
actually lower some overnight. Improvement is expected Friday
afternoon as a warm front gradually pushes to the north.
Drizzle/showers and even isolated thunderstorms are expected by
early morning and will likely impact TAF`d terminals off and on
through early afternoon.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Dorn



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