Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 011936
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE SHORT
RANGE. FOR TNT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LATE
AFTN/EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1K...RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE TO NO
CAP...SUSPECT WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP AND PERSIST UNTIL
ABOUT SUNSET. PROBABLY NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY
GIVEN LACK OF ANY DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. BUT THAT SAID THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GFS/NAM FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE
COVERAGE-WISE. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND MILD WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DECENT MIXING GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE/DRY
ATMOSPHERE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE LLJ GETS CRANKED
UP OVER ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN CWA. HI RES AND LOW RES MODELS A
LIKE HAVE BEEN HINTING AT ELEVATED LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY EAST INTO MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SUCH
IN THE FORECAST. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SYSTEM
KICKS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL ADVECT
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EAST ACROSS THE CWA A HEAD OF THAT
SYSTEM...PRODUCING A DECENT CAP IN THE PROCESS. ANY MCS THAT FORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY WELL STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY ABOUT AVERAGE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
POPS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF SFC
FRONT...OTHERWISE EXPECT THEM TO AVERAGE OUT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN. SFC HIGH WILL THEN BE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO C. THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN
KEEPING THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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