Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 202044
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
344 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHORT RANGE. BUT FIRST
THINGS FIRST. FOR TONIGHT AM STILL ANTICIPATING SOME STORMS...AND
PROBABLY SOME SEVERE AS WELL. HARD TO DECIPHER EXACTLY WHERE ANY
LL WARM FRONT MIGHT EXIST...BUT THERE IS LIKELY A SUBTLE BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE CLOUDS ARE STARTING
TO GET SOME HEIGHT TO THEM OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A NUMBER
OF HI RES MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THIS WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT AS IS LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. INSTABILITY IN INCREASING NOW THAT INITIAL CLOUD DECK IS
PUSHING EAST OF THAT AREA. THOSE STORMS OUT WEST MAY CONGEAL INTO
A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THOSE STORMS
FEEDING OFF RICH MOISTURE/LLJ. INITIALLY HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR A TORNADO...BUT THEN WIND WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MCS THAT FORMS.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA BUT SHOULD
END BY NOON WITH THE REST OF THE DAY MAINLY DRY. THE REST OF THE
SHORT RANGE SHOULD FEATURE CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST
INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
EAST TO WEST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
MEANWHILE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR OUR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT WEST WILL KICK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN BEHIND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT WITH IT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...KICKING EAST INTO OUR REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN AIR
DOMINATES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. EXPECT ALL OF THE
STATIONS TO BE AFFECTED AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY FOR THUNDER WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE
HEAVY. OTHERWISE...THE RAINFALL WILL END THROUGH LATE EVENING
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. EXPECT SOME FOG
AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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