Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 082344 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
RADAR REMAINS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS THE AREA. STILL JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAVE A MENTION
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT..HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN IT EXITS
TO THE EAST. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES
THU AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH FORCING
PLACEMENT ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
INDICATE A DEVELOPING LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA. THE GFS ALSO MOVES A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CWA WHICH WOULD HELP TRIGGER SOME TSTORMS. AT THE SAME TIME THE
ECMWF BEGINS TO FOCUS ANY MOISTURE AND ENERGY JUST NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS KS WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS CWA A LITTLE DRIER
AFTER 00Z. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES
EARLY ON...THEN THE POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT WITH DIFFERING TIMING NOTED AMONGST THE MODELS.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED ALLBLEND POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND EC
SHOWING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. BIGGER STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW AMPLIFIED THE UPPER PATTERN GETS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALL LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH OF COOL AIR DEVELOPING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...THEY JUST VARY A BIT IN AMPLITUDE. 12Z GFS HAS
ACTUALLY TRENDED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER EC/GEM SOLUTIONS.
DOWNWARD TRENDS IN TEMPS MAY BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY RETURN OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SMOKE. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN FAR NORTHERN
CANADA HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED SOUTHWARD...AND HAS SPREAD OVER THE
DAKOTAS. FOR NOW THE SMOKE OVER THIS REGION REMAINS THIN...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY IS OCCURRING. WILL MONITOR
HOWEVER...AND ADJUST THE TAFS IF IT LOOKS LIKE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
MAY OCCUR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.