Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 281730 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1130 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS OF 16Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED A FEW MILES WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS IN KD07 AND KPHP HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE SOME ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
IN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH A DRY MORNING SOUNDING AT KABR AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN






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