Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 211128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER MILD DAY...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES 1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT
DEVELOPS TODAY...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS AROUND 20G30KTS IN
BUFKIT...THUS FIRE WEATHER IS THE CHIEF CONCERN. MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE 50S TODAY HOWEVER...WHICH WILL KEEP
MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE 30 PERCENT. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO
THE EVENING...ABOUT 12MB ACROSS THE STATE...TO KEEP THE BREEZE
GOING OVERNIGHT AND LIMITING TEMPERATURE DROP.

PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...BEST LIFT/SATURATION IS CONFINED TO A NARROW RIBBON
ABOVE THE INVERSION AOA 8KFT...WITH A DRY/WARM SUB CLOUD
ENVIRONMENT. MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG
CAPE...HOWEVER BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT THE SUGGESTION OF WEAK
ELEVATED CONVECTION. THUS...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS MUCH DRIER THANKS TO A
WESTERLY COMPONENT...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT IS MUCH WEAKER IN THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

H85 TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR
THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
EARLY MONDAY...SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH DRY SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS THAT PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE IN ON MONDAY...BUT NOT WITH
LOCATION AND TIMING. BEING IT IS AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD...HAVE OPTED TO JUST ADD A SCHC POP IN FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S FRIDAY...60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
MORNING. AFTER SUNSET...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL
CONTINUE...BUT THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL COME TO AN END.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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