Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 180215 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
915 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 915 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

Showers/isolated thunder will continue to move east across the cwa
into the early morning hours. Adjusted weather and pops for

UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

Slow moving front with a deepening low pressure located across the
I90 corridor this afternoon, while mid level warm advection showers
continue to migrate across the northern tier of the state. Some
light wrap around showers will continue across the northern tier,
while more convective elements will continue to develop in eastern
counties. Winds will increase as the low deepens, with strong
pressure rises in its wake. this will keep the flow from allowing
any fog to form overnight as well, despite the cooler more humid
conditions across much of the CWA.

High pressure builds in from the west. Favorable westerly flow will
result in breezy conditions for Tuesday but with cooler air aloft
only anticipate highs in the low 60s, though that is still about 5F
higher than average. Despite strong westerlies and a broad upper
trof overhead, not much else going on in the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

A mid level shortwave trough will exit the region to the east on
Thursday, with northwest flow then becoming dominant over the
Northern Plains until a ridge moves in toward the end of the

A surface high pressure system will be over the region when the
period begins, but quickly gets pushed east by an approaching low.
The center of the low will stay well north of the CWA, but its
associated frontal boundary will track across during the day Friday.
A few models indicate some light precipitation with the front, but
most of them do not, so will not mention any at this time. High
pressure slides through Friday night and Saturday before another low
approaches at the end of the period. Very little in the way of upper
support or moisture to work with, so will stick with a completely
dry extended forecast.

Thursday will be the coolest day of the period, with highs in the
lower 50s to lower 60s. Highs will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s
the rest of the time. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

A short wave trough out west this evening will be making its way
east into the early morning hours. Lift from this trough will bring
light showers to all locations with no significant reduction in
visibility expected. Ceilings are also expected to remain VFR. After
this trough moves by, the rest of the forecast is expected to be




SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Mohr is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.