Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 141749 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1149 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Aviation discussion updated below for 18z TAFs

UPDATE Issued at 1037 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Even with full sunshine across the area this morning, temperatures
are having a tough time climbing due to the limited winds and deep
snow cover. However, will not make many changes to highs at this
point and continue to monitor trends over the next couple hours.
Still expect highs to reach the teens and 20s today, with the
warmest readings over the southwest CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Winds have been the main concern early this morning, over the
typical location between Peever and Summit. Maximum wind gusts were
out of the west around 53 mph shortly around 1238 AM. Winds have
been slowly diminishing since, but gusts are still 42-51 mph between
238 and 313 AM. Although these winds remain, the local web cam
doesn`t show too much in the way of visibility reduction, but mainly
just snow drifts across the roadway. Will continue the SPS for this
specific area and reevaluate as 10Z nears.

The western half of the sfc ridge, extending from Lake Ontario
through our cwa early this morning, will build across eastern SD/NE,
southern MN and IA this afternoon through early Sunday. Other than
the initial wind issue across the Sisseton Hills area early this
morning, winds will mainly stay less than 15 mph/13 kts. Dry weather
will also continue into the weekend.

Some models were indicating the potential for fog to develop on the
light southwest winds tonight. Did not include in the fcst quite
yet, due to the limited potential and coverage.

The sfc high will finally exit east for good Sunday night, being
replaced by an inverted trough extending from a low across eastern
KS Monday morning. This will be while the 500MB cut off low,
currently off the Baja Peninsula, ejects northeastward across
northern TX. The southern low will begin to merge back with the main
flow to the north late monday across the Northern Plains. So, after
a period of dry weather, mixed precipitation will return to the
forecast late Sunday night through Monday. Precipitation type is
still in question, but will light amounts anticipated, and the
potential for shifting as the system nears, will hold off on any
headlines. Will however start to include the mention of mixed
precipitation in the HWO for our far southwestern counties. While
it`s currently in the forecast for only a couple of hours there is
the potential that the duration will be expanded with later
forecasts/guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

The ECMWF maintains its farther north and west track for the sfc
and upper lows moving through the region at the start of the period.
GFS remains farther south and east so stuck with consensus pops over
the far southeastern cwa. By Monday night, all precip should be snow
on the cooler side of the system.

Upper ridging is still slated to build in mid week bringing much
warmer temperatures. Existing snow pack may moderate these temps a
bit as we move into next week, but temps will likely top out in the
30s with some lower 40s across south central. Warmer air will stay
over the region through the end of the work week. The precip
forecast is the main challenge toward the end of the period. A deep
PAC NW upper trough will begin to transition east and eject energy
into the northern Plains. GFS is keeping this area mostly dry, but
consensus and EC have some light snow/rain periods on Friday and
Saturday with an approaching weak sfc low. POP areal coverage and
timing will likely change frequently in this pattern over the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

VFR conditions expected through the period. While the potential
for patchy fog exists, confidence is low at this time for more
than limited areal coverage.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lueck/TMT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lueck



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