Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 140525 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1225 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Not seeing any major reasons to make any significant adjustments
to the forecast this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

An area of low pressure, along with an upper level trough continues
to impact the region with mostly cloudy skies and isolated
thunderstorms. Eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota will see
convection for the next few hours as the surface low will be slow
to depart the region. With an abundance of low level moisture and
light winds, patchy to areas of fog will be possible tonight
through Monday morning.

Upper level ridging will build into the region on Monday with mostly
dry conditions expected. Another storm system will begin impacting
the region from the west during the afternoon hours. While the
current forecast has low pops along and west of the Missouri River
starting at 18Z, pcpn looks best after 0Z Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Pattern looks fairly progressive as a weak shortwave ridge pushes
through Monday night setting the stage for convection on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Models are very bullish on precipitation. Depending
on the model, there are strong hints of development of an MCS
somewhere in central SD to Southeast ND Tuesday afternoon. SPC has
all of forecast area in the marginal severe outlook for Tuesday.
This looks reasonable. Another threat looks to be heavy rain. What a
difference a few weeks makes with the periodic rains chipping away
at the drought! Superblend reflecting this thinking with high pops
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

After Tuesday`s system, pattern looks favorable for some warmer
temps to move into area, along with periodic chances of afternoon
and evening storms. Temps will warm to near seasonal levels by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Vfr conditions will get replaced by ifr cigs and ifr/mvfr vsbys due
to fog overnight, but particularly at katy/kabr.  Those cigs/fog
will likely burn off during the morning on Monday.&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Wise



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