Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
206 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The main short term issue is pcpn and temps. System out west
(mid level trof) will continue to dig before ejecting northeast
across the region on Saturday. A head of the trof there`ll be a
strong LLJ that will keep winds healthy overnight, thus mild lows.
The LLJ will also act to bring up increasing moisture/instability,
which could lead to a late night thundershower or two. On Saturday
post frontal pcpn is expected over the western/central cwa. Rainfall
amounts look pretty meager, probably less than a quarter inch.
Meanwhile, pressure rises west of the cold front will likely bring
some gusty winds to the western cwa late tnt and Saturday, but for
now they are forecast to remain below wind advisory criteria.
However, this is something later shifts will have to keep an eye on.
For Sunday it will turn milder as waa develops across the region via
breezy southwest winds. Overall temperatures will remain above
normal through the weekend, particularly on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night into Monday
morning, with colder air pouring in through Tuesday. The cold will
be felt especially across the eastern area of the CWA where 850 mb
temps are progged to dip to around -5 C by 12Z Tuesday. This will
translate to highs in the low 50s on Tuesday for the eastern CWA,
although 50s will still be common over most of the forecast area.
There doesn`t appear to be much in the way of precipitation
associated with this system either.

Upper ridge builds back in briefly for Wednesday and Wednesday night
as highs rebound back into the 60s and lower 70s. A much stronger
cold front is shown by models to move through on Thursday, with
possibly the coldest air thus far this season moving in for late
next week. Both the 12Z GFS and EC are showing 850 mb temps as low
as -11 C to -12 C. Early numbers in the MEX guidance are showing
lows in the teens with highs around 40 by next Friday/Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the valid taf period at all
terminals. Gusty south winds today will swing around to northwest
on Saturday.




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