Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 290301
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1001 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE HEADLINES. NO OTHER CHANGES OF NOTE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE IMPACTING THE CWA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEY WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA. WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEY SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH WINDS POSSIBLE DIMINISHING.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. THANKFULLY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING...UNTIL PERHAPS THE SATURDAY
PERIOD WHEN A SURFACE FRONT COMES THROUGH. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE LACKING IN THAT PARTICULAR TIME FRAME. MODELS SUGGEST
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A LONG
WAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CANADA...DAMPENING THE WEST COAST RIDGE
SOME. MAINLY STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE OVERALL NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST...WITH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.
THE WIND WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND THEN GET A BIT GUSTY ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK


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