Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 050251 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
951 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH 850 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE TEENS AND 20C...HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHICH DAY WILL END
UP BEING WARMER IS A LITTLE UNCLEAR BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE DIFFERENCE IS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AROUND 18Z...WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 21-0Z...WITH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER MIXING. WENT WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BASED VERIFICATION FROM MAY 3RD WHICH SAW
WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WHILE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT ON
FRIDAY...PCPN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC
TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR NOW UNTIL MORE HI-RES MODELS BECOME
AVAILABLE FOR THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE REGION IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH ANY PRECIP WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

AS THE UPPER LOWS TRANSITION EAST ON MONDAY THE WESTERN LOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE PLAINS. A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY.
MODELS DIFFER DRASTICALLY ON PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AND ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR THE
WORK WEEK SINCE THE ECMWF PLACES SOUTH DAKOTA DIRECTLY UNDER THE LOW
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WHILE THE GFS AND GEM KEEP
ALMOST ALL PRECIP TO THE SOUTH UNTIL MIDWEEK.

TEMPS WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
RAIN/CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL FALL FROM AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE VALID TAF PERIOD AT
ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK


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