922
FXUS63 KAPX 101836
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
236 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool, with at least some frost expected tonight.

- There is potential for thunderstorms Wednesday night through
Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified pattern across the CONUS this
afternoon with troughing over New England down into the southeastern
U.S. Ridge axis currently upstream across the central Plains into
Manitoba/northern Ontario. Canada originated high pressure that`s
currently situated over MN/WI will drift east this evening...
becoming centered squarely overhead tonight. By late tomorrow,
shortwave troughing is expected to be trekking across the northern
tier of the country with attendant low pressure over southern
Canada. This wave will eventually drive increased low-end shower
chances locally Tuesday night.

Forecast Details: Sun-filled skies across northern Michigan this
afternoon with high temperatures back into the 60s across the
majority of the area. Some northwest breeziness lingers through
sunset with calm winds and clear skies anticipated overnight as
aforementioned high pressure parks overhead -- ideal radiational
cooling setup for an excellent nocturnal temperature response. Still
expecting much of the interior to fall into the mid-upper 30s with
some the typically cooler areas perhaps dipping to near 30 degrees.
Will go ahead with a frost advisory in those typically cooler
counties with the highest likelihood for frost away from the Great
Lakes shorelines -- and while not every location within the advisory
counties will see frost tonight, given that it`s nearly mid-June,
feel that even a smattering of locations sub-36 degrees is enough to
warrant taking precaution. Coastal areas likely to remain a few
degrees warmer, and while frost is unlikely in these areas, low-
lying spots even several miles inland from the coasts may see
localized/patchy frost in typically colder/susceptible areas.

A sunny and chilly start to Tuesday, although temperatures rebound
nicely into the 70s for most with sunshine becoming more filtered
during the afternoon as high clouds gradually increase from the
west.&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A weak moisture starved cold front traverses the region Tuesday
night. Showers will likely be approaching northern Michigan from the
west but the loss of diurnal heating is expected to weaken this
activity. Could either see showers totally fizzling out or possibly
surviving as light scattered rain showers or sprinkles but it
shouldn`t be much of anything either way. Weak high pressure likely
leaves Wednesday rain free. A weak area of low pressure (to the
north) and an associated cold front will bring renewed rain shower
and possibly thunderstorm chances to the region later Wednesday
night on into Thursday night. The timing of this system will
determine the amount of instability and subsequent strength/coverage
of storms given the expected increasing wind fields (question is
whether the timing will coincide with peak heating). Cooler and rain
free conditions are then expected to return for Friday. Increasing
ridging this weekend into early next week is expected to lead to
much warmer temperatures and possibly showers and storms (mainly
Sunday into Monday). Some spots in northern lower could approach the
90 degree mark Sunday and possibly even hit the low and mid 90s by
early next week depending upon the amount of convective
activity/cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR through the period with some lingering northwest gustiness this
afternoon giving way to calm winds overnight as high pressure
settles overhead. Some wisps of high clouds increase toward the
very tail end of the TAF period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ016-017-
     021>023-027>029-033>035-086-095-099.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MJG