777
FXUS63 KAPX 100159
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
959 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy frost is possible Monday night.

- There is potential for strong thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Main upper trough axis and cold front has cleared Lower Michigan...
with one final weak trough axis now moving thru Northern Lower
Michigan late this evening. This last trough axis is generating
some very light rain showers/sprinkles across mainly the higher
elevations of Northern Lower Michigan...and will continue to do
so for the remainder of the evening. Latest satellite loop does
show some holes developing within the low cloud deck entrenched
across our CWA...signs that building subsidence and the arrival
of drier low level air are finally happening as the upstream
ridge axis begins to build into the Western Great Lakes region.
Expect this gradual clearing trend will continue overnight...and
remaining light shower activity should come to an end before
midnight. Expect another cool night across our Northwoods with
overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified troughing continues to pinwheel
across the Great Lakes on the western periphery of parent upper-
level closed low pressure over southern Quebec. This system shifts
west over the next 24-36 hours with slowly rising heights across the
western Great Lakes by the half of the day Monday. At the surface,
expansive high pressure centered to our west begins to build into
the region tonight/Monday, eventually becoming centered overhead
Monday night.

Forecast Details: A few isolated showers remain possible through
this evening across northern Michigan given lingering low-level
moisture and energy pinwheeling around aforementioned parent low
pressure downstream. That said, confidence is low in development or
coverage of additional showers with the vast majority of the
forecast area favored to remain dry, albeit cool and damp feeling.
Otherwise, a slow clearing trend anticipated tonight with mostly
sunny skies anticipated for the day Monday. High temperatures Monday
in the 60s area-wide -- warmest to near 70 degrees in downsloping
locales of northeast lower/near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Hope for better weather is on the horizon after a miserable weekend
across most of northern Michigan. An upper level ridge currently off
to our west finally dislodges the trough stuck across the region
over the last few days. This ridge will be in control of the weather
leading to clear to partly skies and warmer daytime temperatures
Monday, and especially Tuesday. Unfortunately, light winds and very
little cloud cover will allow temperatures to tumble Monday night.
Patchy frost is even possible, mainly across low lying areas. Fairly
benign weather on Wednesday with nearly zonal flow aloft. Attention
then turns to a northern stream trough currently evident on water
vapor imagery across southwest Canada. A developing southerly flow
in advance of this system, growing instability and strengthening
wind fields could come together to generate strong thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening. Too far out to discern the details
but something we will be looking at over the next couple of days.
Perhaps another short wave moving through the flow Friday leading to
chances for showers and storms. Upper level ridging/even warmer
temperatures are then expected to take over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Upper level trough axis and resulting cold front will continue
to sink SE thru Lower Michigan this evening. Low level ridging
will gradually build into the Western Great Lakes later tonight
and Monday...with a large area of strong high pressure and dry
air building overhead by Monday night. Mainly Low VFR/MVFR cigs
will hold over our area thru much of tonight...with some
lingering light showers expected this evening. Low clouds will
diminish and VFR conditions will return to our area overnight
and Monday thanks to building subsidence and the arrival of
drier air thru the column. Surface winds will remain from the
N/NW at 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts at times.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MLR