Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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128 FXUS63 KAPX 092300 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy frost is possible Monday night. - There is potential for strong thunderstorms Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Amplified troughing continues to pinwheel across the Great Lakes on the western periphery of parent upper- level closed low pressure over southern Quebec. This system shifts west over the next 24-36 hours with slowly rising heights across the western Great Lakes by the half of the day Monday. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered to our west begins to build into the region tonight/Monday, eventually becoming centered overhead Monday night. Forecast Details: A few isolated showers remain possible through this evening across northern Michigan given lingering low-level moisture and energy pinwheeling around aforementioned parent low pressure downstream. That said, confidence is low in development or coverage of additional showers with the vast majority of the forecast area favored to remain dry, albeit cool and damp feeling. Otherwise, a slow clearing trend anticipated tonight with mostly sunny skies anticipated for the day Monday. High temperatures Monday in the 60s area-wide -- warmest to near 70 degrees in downsloping locales of northeast lower/near Saginaw Bay. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Hope for better weather is on the horizon after a miserable weekend across most of northern Michigan. An upper level ridge currently off to our west finally dislodges the trough stuck across the region over the last few days. This ridge will be in control of the weather leading to clear to partly skies and warmer daytime temperatures Monday, and especially Tuesday. Unfortunately, light winds and very little cloud cover will allow temperatures to tumble Monday night. Patchy frost is even possible, mainly across low lying areas. Fairly benign weather on Wednesday with nearly zonal flow aloft. Attention then turns to a northern stream trough currently evident on water vapor imagery across southwest Canada. A developing southerly flow in advance of this system, growing instability and strengthening wind fields could come together to generate strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Too far out to discern the details but something we will be looking at over the next couple of days. Perhaps another short wave moving through the flow Friday leading to chances for showers and storms. Upper level ridging/even warmer temperatures are then expected to take over next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Upper level trough axis and resulting cold front will continue to sink SE thru Lower Michigan this evening. Low level ridging will gradually build into the Western Great Lakes later tonight and Monday...with a large area of strong high pressure and dry air building overhead by Monday night. Mainly Low VFR/MVFR cigs will hold over our area thru much of tonight...with some lingering light showers expected this evening. Low clouds will diminish and VFR conditions will return to our area overnight and Monday thanks to building subsidence and the arrival of drier air thru the column. Surface winds will remain from the N/NW at 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts at times. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for LHZ345>349. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...MLR