363
FXUS63 KICT 111934
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
234 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer above temperatures expected for next several days

- Heat indices will likely surpass 100 degrees for many
  locations on Thursday afternoon along with a few strong to
  severe storms possible

- Periodic storm chances will continue for Friday into early next
week with Saturday afternoon/night have the better chance for more
activity

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Models show upper level ridge axis amplifying over the Rockies
beginning on Thursday and shifting eastward into the northern plains
for Friday. This will allow hotter than normal temperatures to build
across the region, especially on Thursday where model ensembles
show high probabilities of 95 degrees or above affecting
locations mainly along and west of the Kansas Turnpike. Heat
indices reaching into the low 100s to around 105 degrees with
some locations possibly attaining heat advisory levels Thursday
afternoon. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will sag southward into
central Kansas where enough convergence could allow a few storms
to develop Thursday afternoon/evening. Even though mid level
temperatures are rather warm(+14 to +15C) a few storms should
develop and could become strong to severe given high
DCAPE increasing the severe wind potential and directional
shear in the mid levels for possible large hail. The storm
chances will continue into Friday mainly for the Flint Hills
area into eastern Kansas this is where a mid level
baroclinic/higher precipitable water axis zone will reside.

Models show a upper level trough pivoting across the central plains
on Saturday which could spark off more scattered showers/storms for
Saturday afternoon/night. Once again a few strong/severe storms will
be possible this period. The storm chances will taper off on Sunday
as the upper level wave shifts eastward. Models then show deepening
upper trough over the western states gradually pivoting eastward
towards the northern plains early next week. This will cause south
winds to increase over the region along with some storm chances
possibly returning to mainly western and central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the next 24hrs
with light south winds through the day and night-time hours.
Winds will increase during the late morning hours on Wednesday across
central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ