Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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114 FXUS63 KOAX 270834 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 334 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy today with northwest winds gusting to 30 to 35 mph. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast from Thursday through the weekend. Severe weather potential remains uncertain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .Today: A vigorous shortwave trough over the Dakotas early this morning will track east-southeast into MN and IA today. As of 3 AM, widely scattered showers are being observed ahead of that feature from near the SD-NE into western MN. And, while an isolated shower or two is possible this morning, latest CAM guidance suggests that the majority of any shower and thunderstorm development will remain to the north and east of the area today. Otherwise, model soundings depict the development of a deeply mixed boundary layer by afternoon; supportive of downward momentum transfer of stronger winds aloft with northwest winds gusting to 30-35 mph. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to around 80. .Tuesday and Wednesday: Another shortwave trough will pass to the east of the area Tuesday ahead of a midlevel ridge which will overspread the northern and central Plains Wednesday. Precipitation chances appear negligible with highs in the 70s to around 80. .Thursday and Thursday night: The 00z global deterministic models indicate a prominent midlevel trough emerging from the Canadian and northern Rockies with an associated vorticity lobe progressing through the base of that feature into the northern Plains. At the same time, there is some model signal for a weaker, lower-latitude disturbance advancing east through the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front initially over the northern High Plains Thursday morning will slowly progress east with showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and nighttime hours along and ahead of that boundary. Current indications are that the greatest air mass destabilization and associated severe weather threat will remain to the west of our area. This forecast update will indicate PoPs increasing to 40-70% Thursday with showers and thunderstorms likely (50-80% chance) Thursday night. Highs are expected to be in the 70s. Friday through the weekend: On Friday into Saturday, the global deterministic models begin to diverge on the evolution of the large-scale pattern. The ECMWF and Canadian systems move a low-amplitude disturbance through the northern Plains, whereas the GFS indicates a more substantial shortwave trough moving into the northern and central Plains Saturday and Saturday night; suggestive of a greater severe weather threat. In contrast, the EPS/GEFS/CMCE ensemble mean 500-mb height fields depict a more consistent signal of broad troughing across the northern Plains in the Friday-Saturday time frame. By Sunday, all model solutions depict a deamplifying midlevel pattern across the northern and central Plains. The forecast will indicate a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Severe weather potential remains uncertain due to the varying model solutions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Gusty winds have already made it past KLNK and KOFK, with speeds briefly hitting 35 kts and the expectation that those winds continue to diminish as they go eastward. KOMA should see a brief increase to around 25 kts and an increase in clouds at FL050 before it sweeps east of the terminal. Aside from the gusts, things should remain dry overnight before winds begin increasing first at KOFK mid-morning with gusts approaching 30 kts tomorrow afternoon while KLNK and KOMA see gusts of just below 25 kts. Winds will quickly diminish around sunset, staying out of the northwest the whole time alongside little to no cloud cover. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mead AVIATION...Petersen