Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 022356
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
656 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IF ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL AFFECT OR FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/METARS/WSR-88D...HEATING TODAY INTO
THE 60S HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. THERE MAY BE A
FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD
FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A STRONG 90KT JET IS DIVING SOUTHWESTWARD TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE
OF POCKETS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND
OMEGA INCREASES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 4KM
WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND TAKES THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MENTIONED
SPRINKLES FOR NOW AND EVENING SHIFT CAN ASSESS HOW THESE ARE
HOLDING TOGETHER.

TUESDAY...CLOUDS COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE
SOUTH...OTHERWISE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HEATING TO AROUND 70
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW CUMULUS TO RE-DEVELOP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY...AFFECTING WISCONSIN.
THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT WILL BE TO OUR EAST...HOWEVER LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME CLOUDS AND
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA. THERE IS BETTER H7
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME FRONTOGENESIS.  FOR NOW HAVE THE
CLOUDS MENTIONED AND CAN ADD POPS IF MOISTURE IS SUPPORTED FARTHER
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED ALONG WITH MORE RAIN LATER
THIS WEEKEND...

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE TOPS THE
RIDGE AND COULD GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE MILD FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FRONT SLIPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE MODELS...SO WILL BROADBRUSH CHANCE
POPS...AND REFINE AS THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE ON HIGHER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEWALD


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