Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 261956
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
256 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MODELS ADVERTISING CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE REGIONAL RADAR WAS
SHOWING AREA OF NARROW LINE OF REDEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF PCPN LIFTING THRU IA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE IA CWA THOUGH BY LATE THIS AFTN.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
HIRES AWR/NMM ARE IN AGREEMENT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE
OVER WRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF 0-3KM CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG...BNDRY LYR
THETA-E CONVG. ACTIVITY PROGGED THEN TO REACH THE NEB CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS THEN MOVE ACROSS THE IA CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INFLUX
OF BNDRY LYR MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INTENSIFY LEADING UP CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATE.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLVL JET WILL ALLOW PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DROP THRU THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WITH AMPLE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...SEVERAL LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE...WILL BE HIGH
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PDS IS ANTICIPATED COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. METEOGRAMS
THOUGH CLEARLY INDICATE A QUICK REBOUND WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY CONT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AT KOMA/KOFK BEFORE
BASES RISE TO AOA FL040. THIS VFR BKN DECK WILL LIKELY THEN CONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING
THIS EVNG. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTN DEVELOP FOR
KOMA/KLNK AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD


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