Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 010945
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
345 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS MORNING
AND NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR SCANS SHOWS THAT THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO WANE
OVERALL. SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER SNOW BANDS ARE PRESENT NEAR
SCHUYLER/NORTH BEND WITH ANOTHER EHANCED AREA DRIFTING NORTHEAST
TO THE OMAHA/CB METRO AREA. METARS ARE SHOWING VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 MILES. WE DID HEAR OF ONE REPORT OF THUNDER...BUT
NEVER DID SEE THAT SHOW UP IN THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NET. THUS
FAR SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 4 TO 9 INCHES IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING AREA. MANY AREAS PROBABLY WON`T ACHIEVE THE WINTER
STORM CRITERIA AMOUNT OF 8 INCHES. BUT...WE FEEL THE WINTER STORM
WARNING REMAINS JUSTIFIED DUE TO THE EXTREMELY POOR ROAD
CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AND THE EXPECTED NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY WHEN THE WINDS KICK IN. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN DEEP AND
STILL WELL LOCATED WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS SNOW
PRODUCTION REMAINS GOOD...THOUGH OVERALL SYSTEM LIFT IS PULLING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER 1 TO
3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA.

AS OF 9Z WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP AT OFK/LCG/ONL AND EXPECT
ALL AREAS TO BE VERY WINDY BY LATE THIS MORNING. RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DECENT MIXING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS OVER
40 MPH AREN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT SURE IF THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE SUSTAINED LONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITIES TO
NECESSITATE A BLIZZARD WARNING. CONDITIONS WILL SURELY BE VERY
POOR...THUS WE ADDED NEAR-BLIZZARD WORDING TO THE LATEST WINTER
STORM WARNING UPDATE. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FINISHED JUST AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. DECIDED TO
LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER IN
PLACE.

LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR...OPTED FOR LOW CHANCES FOR NOW.
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST IT STRENGTHENS AND OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES COULD PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP BY SATURDAY. ONE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROLLING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE. TIMING AND
TRACK OF SNOW WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT MODELS
SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER SOMEWHAT IN SHOWING MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA GETTING LIGHT SNOW AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE INCH OR TWO RANGE
GIVEN LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT AND PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE TEENS WILL ONLY GAIN A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 20S
WEDNESDAY GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS.
COLDER AIR SETTLING SOUTH BEHIND SHORTWAVE WILL GIVE US A COLD START
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME SUB-ZERO
READINGS LIKELY.

A QUICK REBOUND STILL LOOKS ON TRACK THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY...WHICH CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUS A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND IS FORECAST...CLIMBING FROM THE 20S THURSDAY TO THE
30S AND PERHAPS LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

WINTER EVENT WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IFR AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 1 1/2 MILES MOSTLY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK BECOMING NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH AND SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASING BY 11-13Z TO 22 TO 35 KNOTS. AT THAT TIME...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-
     016-017-030-031-090>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ012-015-
     018-032>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088-089.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-
     056-069-080-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD


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