Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 300045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
745 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

Forecast area remains status quo in the short term as the upper
low continues to spin across the Lower Ohio river valley. Main
impact for us will be areal extent of cloud cover, which may
increase as we head into the weekend as low level moisture
increases. Surface ridge remains across the forecast area early in
the period then begins to shift east. Nam/HRRR/SREF models all
suggest some fog will develop tonight underneath the ridge where
winds could go completely calm, thus will add some fog to the
forecast. Will have to watch for locally dense fog in the Platte
River valley. Models also hint at some patchy fog Friday night but
will wait to add that later on. Low level clouds should increase
from the east Friday night into Saturday. Models do hint at some
sprinkles or drizzle possible across western Iowa, but really not
confident there`s enough lift to generate any precip. Lows mostly
in the 40s next few nights, highs in the lower 70s Friday and
Saturday, and mid 70s Sunday as low shifts to the east and upper
ridge builds back onto the Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

Upper ridge still in place Monday ahead of the next trough that is
moving into the central Rockies. This should result in well above
normal temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Precip chances begin
to increase Monday night into Tuesday night as moisture increases,
diffluent flow aloft develops, and dynamic height falls begin to
impact the area. As usual, there are timing differences among the
mainsuite models on timing Wednesday, with system north and east
of the area by Thursday.


Issued at 730 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

VFR conditions are forecast this evening with mainly clear skies
as surface high pressure remains over the area. Patchy fog will
again be possible overnight and could see some MVFR conditions or
lower with the fog. Fog was limited this morning, however winds
aloft are a little more favorable.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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