000
FXUS63 KOAX 171641
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS TODAY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

12Z KOAX RAOB INDICATED A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS COVERED A GOOD
PART OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 12Z SOUNDING HAD A H85 DEW
POINT OF 1 C AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RESIDED ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE
MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON LITTLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EXPECTED.
THUS WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY. GIVEN THE DRY H85 AIR WE ALSO
LOWERED DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND WENT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST APPEAR ON TRACK.

NEW GRIDS AND ZFP ALREADY SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN TURNING EAST
ON TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A STRONG LOW REMAINS OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A
VERY SUBTLE BOUNDARY RESIDES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE POOLED INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH DRIER LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS IN OUR NORTH.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE MENTIONED WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER WEAK BULK LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON MAY SPREAD INTO OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE SMALL POPS GENERALLY I-80 AND SOUTH.

A FEW DRY PERIODS ARE EXPECTED WHILE UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST
STRENGTHENS AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES ONSHORE. A SPOTTY
CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS SPREADS EAST ATOP UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH MID WEEK...THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 90S FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. A FEW NOCTURNAL CHANCES FOR TSTMS STILL LOOK QUITE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE
ACTIVE WITH TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A SFC BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NOCTURNAL TSTMS
CHANCES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$