Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 221139
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
639 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Very quiet weather expected through most of the short term.

High pressure across the region today, which shifts east of the
area tonight. High clouds will continue to thin and diminish
today, with light northeasterly winds. Highs should eventually
reach the mid 60s, or almost exactly normal.

As the high shifts east tonight, winds may diminish even more, or
go calm for a period overnight before becoming light southwest by
daybreak. Radiational cooling will allow temps to dip into the mid
30s in outlying areas for a couple of hours late tonight and early
Sunday, which could result in some spotty frost. Not widespread
enough for any type of advisory though since it should be pretty
short lived.

Breezy southwest winds develop Sunday with temperatures rising
into the lower 70s. This may create very high fire danger
conditions Sunday afternoon north of I80, with wind gusts 15 to 25
mph. Minimum humidity only drops into the mid 20s, thus not low
enough for any fire weather headlines.

An upper wave moving out of the central Rockies onto the northern
Plains Monday will bring a small chance for showers to northeast
NE as a surface front begins to push into the area. Windy
conditions also continue Monday with southerly breezes at 15 to
30 mph. While temps reach the lower to mid 70s, Surface dewpoints
should also be a little higher, which helps keep minimum RH from
35 to 40 percent, which keeps fire danger a little lower as well.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The surface front continues to settle south Monday night, as the
next wave begins to move out of the Rockies. This should bring
40-60% shower chances to the area through Tuesday night, but no
mention of thunder with no instability. Temps will definitely be
cooler Tuesday behind the front in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Wednesday should see drying conditions with another cool day in
store with highs below normal, in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Moisture increases again Wednesday night ahead of the next wave,
which brings another substantial increase in pops into the 50-70%
range that lingers into Friday. Instability appears to be delayed
until Thursday night, and only then south of I80, thus removed
earlier chances of thunder previously forecast. It`s also
important to note that significant model discrepancies are also
developing by this time, which lowers forecaster confidence.
Temps Thursday again below normal, in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Friday should be another day with drying conditions and decreasing
chances for rain through the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with light
north winds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Kern



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