Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 101307
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
707 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Band of precipitation, mostly rain with some sleet mixed in as well,
has increased and should continue moving east through the area
into mid morning. Cold air is pouring in from the northwest with
strong winds. Temperatures may recover some this afternoon, but it
is looking colder for the afternoon compared to earlier. We may be
able to cancel parts of the advisory early.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

A quick moving shortwave trough over southeastern CO will
continue to move northeast into Kansas. Ahead of this, a deepening
surface low will quickly slide east across Nebraska and into
western Iowa this morning. This places the deformation axis across
northeast Nebraska this morning where model qpf values range from
0.10" on the low end to 0.25" on the high end. With early morning
temperatures right around/at/or below the freezing mark, will be
hoisting a winter weather advisory for patchy freezing rain this
morning with ice accumulations around a few hundredths of inch.
This is all dependent on surface temps of course. Surface temps
have warmed a couple degrees ahead of the precipitation band so
confidence on the advisory is low, but we do feel some ice
accumulation will be possible across northeast Nebraska and west
central Iowa through 16z at least.

As the system quickly slides east of the area, gusty northwest winds
are expected behind it. Decent mixing should push winds into the
breezy category for a while but will subside by late afternoon as
surface high pressure moves overhead.

Strong warm air advection will already be underway this evening but
is short-lived as an Arctic front slides out of the Northern Plains
early Wednesday morning. A weak wave sliding out of the Rockies
could bring some light snow to our northern CWA Wed evening but generally
less than an inch.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Temperatures turn much colder late in the week as Arctic high
pressure slides into the region. Sub-zero wind chills are expected
for the entire CWA Friday morning. Otherwise the focus in the
long term centers around a strong closed low coming out of the
southwestern U.S. bringing the potential for widespread ice and/or
snow to the Central Plains late Sunday into Monday. Timing and
track still somewhat uncertain at this time but it is looking more
likely for our southern CWA to see significant ice accumulations
late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Complicated aviation forecast this morning due to potential issues
with precipitation type, winds and ceilings. Precipitation has
been occurring mainly ahead of the next cold front that was
pushing across northeast Nebraska as of 5 am this morning. Based
on some warming taking place ahead of the front, expect mainly
rain at KLNK and KOMA but freezing rain possible for a brief
period. It just depends on the surface temperature. Strong
northwest winds will move in this morning, then drop off this
afternoon. Low level wind shear possible tonight, but TAFs were
already too long to mention that at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for NEZ015-
     018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065-066.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for IAZ043-
     055-056-069.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Miller
SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Miller



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