Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 200400
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1100 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Here comes the rain again. An area of moderate to heavy rain with
embedded thunderstorms across northeast KS continues to push north
this afternoon, now crossing the KS/NE border. The leading edge of
this rain should make it Lincoln around 20-21z, and into Omaha
around 21-22z, and Norfolk by 23-24z. Rain continues through most
of the night as upper low continues to slowly move out of the
central Rockies placing most of the forecast area in a favorable
diffluent flow aloft pattern. While there will be thunder embedded
in the rain over the at least the southern 2/3 of the area, we are
not expecting severe weather at this time. There will be areas of
heavy rain, and we do have an existing flash flood watch in effect
for 3 counties in southeast NE, but flash flood guidance remains
quite high and really not confident we`ll see enough rain to
create flash flooding.

The upper low moves into the area during the day Saturday while
the surface low shifts into the mid Mississippi River valley.
Morning showers should end across southeast NE, but numerous
showers may continue through the day north of I80. Not a lot of
instability to work with despite cold core moving overhead,
although there appears to be very marginal instability still
across western Iowa for a rumble of morning thunder perhaps.

Lingering showers pull out Saturday evening, Somewhat chilly
temps again Sunday morning in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with a
dry and pleasant Sunday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

A weak weak could bring some showers to the KS/NE border Sunday
night. Then a stronger wave with another cold front push moves
into the forecast area later on Monday, with increasing chance of
showers and storms. Temps Monday into the upper 60s/lower 70s
again ahead of the cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Cold front continues to make progress through the forecast area
Monday night, with a threat for storms. Instability pushes out of
the area by Tuesday, but we remain under the influence of the cool
upper trough, thus spotty showers still seem possible. Another
cool day with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Then dry through
the remainder of the week with warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
across the area through 15Z as upper low coming out of Colorado
lifts toward southwest Minnesota during the period. IFR cigs are
expected to prevail through much of the period before improving
toward 00Z as the system moves north of the area.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for NEZ091>093.

IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Fobert



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