Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 291128
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TODAY

REGIONAL RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE CWA WITH AREAL COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHRINKING
AND EXPECT THE PCPN ACTIVITY...PER LATEST HRRR...EXITING THE CWA
DURING RUSH HOUR.

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH THEN IS TIMING COLD FRONT/TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. MSAS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT HAS
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MID WEST WITH PCPN ACTIVITY
TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BNDRY. HRRR/RAP13
IN AGREEMENT THE BNDRY WILL BE QUICK IN NATURE AND SHOULD BE
CROSSING INTO THE NRN CWA SHORTLY BEFORE NOON. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH EXPECT CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY LATE THIS
AFTN ALONG AXIS OF STEEP 0-3KM LAPSE RATE. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
IN PLACE AS WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH PWS AROUND 1.5" AND KI VALUES
APPROACHING 40.

AS FOR TEMPS...QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE NRN CWA WILL SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS REACHED BY EARLY AFTN WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS THEREAFTER.

DEE

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

COLD FRONT MAY BE VERY NEAR I80 THEN QUICKLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY 06Z AND BEYOND. WILL MAINTAIN 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING IN THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AREA BEFORE 7 AM SATURDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THAT LINGERS INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH MORNING CLOUDS...BUT SKIES QUICKLY
BECOME SUNNY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING.
SOMEWHAT COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REALLY NICE DAY...ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AND TEMPS INCREASE INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY ALLOW A WEAK SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM COULD ALSO AFFECT THE SAME
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD VERY WELL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR CONDITIONS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MO RIVER VLY THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND KOMA WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS. COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU ERN NEB THIS AFTN MAY
INITIATE SCT TSRA ALONG THE BNDRY AT KOMA AND KLNK. AREAL COVERAGE
THOUGH SHOULD BE SMALL IN NATURE AND DO NOT EXPECT TSRA
INTENSIFICATION TILL LATE THIS AFTN JUST SOUTH OF KLNK.

EXPECT WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AT KOFK AROUND 15Z...AND KOMA/KLNK AROUND
21Z WITH CROSSWIND THREAT HIGH AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE



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