Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 100830
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES IN THIS PERIOD. LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD UNDERGO SOME
CHANGES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE THEN RETROGRADES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE FLOW AMPLIFIES. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD A
CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

TODAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. MAIN
AREA OF TSTMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW POPS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO MID MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT...BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.50 TO 2.00 RANGE AND
THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS SOME VALUES OVER 2.00 INCHES. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A TSTM COMPLEX
SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
LOCATION. FOR NOW TENDED TO FAVOR 00Z GFS FOR PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS. SO...THAT KEEPS HIGHEST
POPS FOR ABOUT THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH 85 TO 90 MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER 90S NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT POPS MOSTLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT AS OUR AREA
WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A FAVORABLE REGIME FOR PCPN...
ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A
BIT COOLER WITH MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD...THEN COOL TO WELL BELOW TYPICAL VALUES FOR MID
JULY. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL ALLOW A CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DROP
DOWN INTO THE AREA AS RIDGE AXIS ALOFT BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. KEPT SOME MENTION OF PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WENT
WITH POPS 14 OR LESS AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

POCKETS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
05Z WITH KLNK STILL REPORTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. RAP STILL
INDICATES A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA SYSTEM
AS LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TRANSLATE INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE LIMITED A
PERIOD OF CONVECTION AT KLNK DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AT KOMA
AFTER 15Z. KOFK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON EDGE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR DEVELOPMENT TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF RAP IS HEADING
IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WITH ITS SOLUTION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT


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