Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 202320
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
620 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Transitionary period as upper ridge over the western CONUS
flattens and strong near zonal flow develops across the northern
plains and upper Midwest.

Combination of embedded impulses in the upper flow and quasi
stationary surface boundary that hangs up across the area
Wednesday into Thursday will result in periodic convection during
that time, primarily during the late afternoon and overnight.
Strong upper trough digs into the upper Midwest late Thursday
night into Friday driving surface boundary and associated precip
south of the area with cooler temperatures coming in behind the
trough.

Some scattered convection is possible late tonight into early
Wednesday morning as warm advection zone lifts across the area.
Another chance of storms will develop Wednesday afternoon and
evening as a surface trough approaches eastern Nebraska then
stalls Wednesday night. The stalled boundary begins to push south
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as the upper trough drops
into the northern plains. Instability will increase along the
boundary from northeast into south central Nebraska Wednesday
afternoon with sufficient shear for the potential of some severe
thunderstorms into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Broad upper trough then becomes the dominant feature in the
extended period with cooler temperatures and some chance of
periodic showers and thunderstorms for the area in the northwest
flow. Upper ridge over the western CONUS begins to shift east
into the plains on Tuesday with warmer temperatures starting to
work back into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF cycle, with scattered
cirrus and unrestricted visibility. There is a chance for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area tonight and
Wednesday, but confidence is too low regarding placement or timing
of those to include mention in the TAFs yet. Winds will remain
light tonight, shifting from northerly to easterly to
southeasterly, and low-level wind shear is possible at KOFK/KLNK.
Winds will increase to 10-15kt from the south to southwest by
late morning at all sites.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mayes



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