Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 251706
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1206 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Latest models are in pretty good agreement the nrn CWA will be most
at risk for seeing heavy rainfall accumulation Tuesday night through
Wednesday night where pcpn efficiency will be most prevalent.

Low level moisture advection cranks up along the high plains later
tonight...then spreads over the region early Tuesday. TSRA
initiation Tuesday afternoon then should take place just west of the
CWA before MCS development takes place in SD Tuesday evening
where low level geostrophic wind max will meet up with the srn
extent of 850mb frontogenetic zone. Both NAM12/GFS20 show
impressive forcing with around 100 microbars of omega phasing
with PWS 2". And with favorable depth of warm cloud layer above
freezing level found over the nrn CWA...seems reasonable to expect
generous rainfall accumulations into Wednesday morning. Confidence
lower then Wednesday and Wednesday night as QPF
fields...associated with passing shortwave...begin to show
increasing variance with respect to timing and placement. Thus no
major POP changes anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

POP confidence even lower the rest of next week any one of the minor
impulses riding down the front of a low amplitude wrn conus ridge
could aid in sparking off convection over the CWA. Token POPS are in
place...thus no major changes planned. Otherwise relatively cool
conditions for this time of the year continues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

VFR conditions expected during the period.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DeWald


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