Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 160507

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1107 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Mid-level ridging from the lee of the Canadian Rockies into the
High Plains will gradually dampen while building east into the
Great Plains tonight into Thursday. In the low levels, a surface
ridge from the western Dakotas to southern High Plains at present
will build through the mid-MO Valley ahead of a lee trough which
will deepen over the High Plains. This pattern evolution will
yield slightly warmer temperatures on Thursday, in addition to
gusty south winds.

Thursday night into Friday, mid-level heights will begin to fall
with the approach of an upstream short-wave trough from the
Interior West. Meanwhile, a surface cold front associated with a
perturbation tracking across south-central Canada will advance
south into the forecast area with low-level moisture increasing
ahead of the boundary. This moisture increase will foster
widespread clouds with some patchy drizzle possible, especially
Friday morning. The clouds will have an impact on afternoon highs
on Friday, though the low-level warm advection will push readings
into the mid 50s to potentially lower to mid 60s.

Friday night into Saturday, the progression of the aforementioned
short-wave trough into the mid-MO Valley will encourage the
equatorward advance of a cooler air mass into the region with
highs on Saturday in the 40s. The best chance of measurable
precipitation will be Friday night as deep-layer forcing for
ascent overspreads the area. The primary precipitation type would
be a cold rain, though a mix with light snow is possible prior to
ending early Saturday morning. Additionally, strong northwest
winds will impact the region behind the cold front from late
Friday night through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

The 12z medium-range models suggest that a long-wave trough will
encompass eastern North America at the onset of the long-term
period with broad, upstream ridging across the western half of the
continent. The ridge is forecast to break down during the early
to middle part of the upcoming week, though the details of how
this process occurs vary considerably from model to model. It does
appear that we will see moderating temperatures Sunday and Monday
with decreasing confidence in the forecast thereafter.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through Thursday evening with mainly
scattered high clouds expected. Light winds overnight will become
southeast by 12Z, then south at 15 to 25kt by 18Z, with those
speeds likely to continue through the end of the TAF period.




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