Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 152028
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
328 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO MO/IL
AND EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD THAT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTNDD FROM CNTRL SD INTO WRN NEB. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND CLOUDS CLEARING. THIS
WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE FA. SOME PATCHY
FROST/FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BUT THE AIRMASS DOES
NOT APPEAR AS COOL AS FRI NIGHT WITH MOST LOWS NEAR OR ABOVE 40.
THE SFC HI WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA ON TUE WITH RETURN
FLOW INCREASING DURING THE DAY. WE MAY SEE A BAND OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTN BUT THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. WAA WILL INCREASE ON TUE NIGHT AS A
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS KS...BUT THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MASS CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER ERN
KS/MO AND THIS IS WHERE WE EXPECTED THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF TSRA.
WE WILL CONT WITH THE SCHC POP IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT NEAR THE
KS/MO BORDER BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE S OF OUR AREA.

WE SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WED/THU FOR THE AREA AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE AS WELL AS H85 TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY. THE WARMING MAY BE A BIT LIMITED AS MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THE MODELS /ESPECIALLY THE GFS/ ALSO INDC SOME LIGHT QPF
EACH DAY ACRS PARTS OF THE FA. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH HEIGHT
RISES AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE ON BOTH DAYS. THUS WE
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY ATTM UNTIL A FORCING MECHANISM BECOMES
CLEARER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW ON THU
NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CDFNT TO THE CWA AND WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO BRING A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA ON FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MRNG AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SAT AFTN THROUGH
MON WE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS ERN NEBR AS OF 17Z SHOULD
MIX OUT/DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED MUCH OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE AS WINDS GO
NEARLY CALM...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER BOTTOMS. ALSO SOME WARM
ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING AND THESE WERE
INCLUDED IN 18Z TAF FORECASTS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...CHERMOK



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