Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 300835
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND TSTM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

TROUGH AXIS HAD FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH MAIN AREA OF
PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SERN MN ACROSS ERN IA AND DOWN INTO MO.
A 70 KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB WAS NEAR THE OR/CA BORDER AT 00Z...WHICH
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS OF UP TO 50 METERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN BC CANADA AND
WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED DOWN INTO NRN CA/WRN NV. OUR AREA WILL
BE MUCH DRIER TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. LOW
CLOUDS WERE OVER ERN SD AND WRN IA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWED THESE
OVER THE NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THIS TREND...THEN LET THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT
THIS AFTN. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND WAS IN LINE WITH A
BLEND OF MOS...SO LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80 TO 85.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN PARTS OF NERN
NE LATE. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA COULD ALSO
SEE SOME TSTMS BY DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. THESE
WOULD THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AND BE MORE TIED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK WHICH HAS ALL
OF OUR AREA IN A SLGT RISK. ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. 0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS IN COMBINATION WITH EXPECTED CAPE SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND/OR A LINE. 21Z
SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER CURRENT MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN
ISSUE DUE TO THE RECENT ISSUES WITH SOME STREAMS/RIVERS.

STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY NEAR THE MO BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH
DETAILS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB TUESDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. DID NOT FAVOR ANY ONE MODEL
IN THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WETTER MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS WAS WETTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN
SERN NE/SWRN IA.

HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN SEEMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...ONLY SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER AREAS OF FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z AT ALL TAF SITES. CIGS
BETWEEN FL005 AND FL012 WITH VSBYS 1-2SM ARE LIKELY 08Z TO 15Z.
THEN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DERGAN


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