000
FXUS63 KOAX 280901
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT
TERM.

POCKET OF VERY WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY.
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING
OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY SEE
TEMPS APPROACHING 70...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
COLDER AIR DURING THE EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT DAY SHIFT
WILL NEED TO CONSIDER IF MAV GUIDANCE STAYS CONSISTENT IN NEXT
MODEL RUN. NOT AS WARM THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH DRIFTS TO
THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE NATION BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION.

ICE JAMS ON THE LOWER PLATTE RIVER CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FLOODING
FROM WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO SOUTHERN SARPY AND NORTHERN CASS
COUNTY THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TIMING OF THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH 00Z MODELS SLOWING THE MOVEMENT INTO THE
AREA FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. PRECIP TYPE ALSO COMES INTO PLAY AS A
COLD FRONT BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
LOW LEVELS AND PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW THERE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW DIMINISHES ON SUNDAY WITH SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN
DURING THE DAY. COLD AIR HANGS ON THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WARMER
TEMPS RETURN TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER
AS MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE WARM AIR RETURN WITH GFS SLOWER
THAN THE EURO.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NAM/GFS TRY
TO EXPAND THE MVFR CIGS SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE RAP
KEEPS THEM NORTH OF SUX.  FOR THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE RAP
WITH THE LOW CLOUDS REMAINING NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS UP AROUND 10-12KTS AT KOMA. SOUTHEAST FLOW 6-12KTS WILL
BECOME SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WINDSHIFT. THE WINDSHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES AT KOFK AROUND 17Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO 15 TO 30KT WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS THEREAFTER. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL WORK INTO KOMA AND KLNK AREAS TOWARD 00Z.
CLOUDS DO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY TRY TO
WORK IN TOWARD KOMA AROUND 03Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY