000
FXUS63 KOAX 220722
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
222 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

As a cold front pushes through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, it
is ushering out showers and thunderstorms and bringing in a drier
airmass. Subjective 00Z upper-air analysis indicates broad upper-
level trough over the upper Midwest, accompanied by an 80-95kt upper-
level jet streak from the eastern Dakotas into northern ON.  An
850mb low was centered on the northern ON/MB border, with a trailing
cold front through MN/NE/western KS, and with moisture pooled ahead
of the front. Surface low at 06Z was centered in southern Lake
Superior, with cold front extending through WI/western IL/central MO
and toward a secondary low in central KS. Just a few thunderstorms
were lingering in southeast NE and southwest IA at 06Z.

Main forecast concerns through Friday are a few spotty chances for
showers/storms on Wednesday night through Thursday, with increasing
chances Thursday night and Friday. The cold front moving through
this early morning brings a much drier airmass, as well as a cool-
down, for today through Wednesday. As surface to mid-level high
pressure slides east of the area on Wednesday into Wednesday night,
return flow will bring some moisture back into the High Plains to
central NE and eastern SD. A few showers/storms may develop along
this axis late Wednesday night, with slight chances continuing into
Thursday. Warm/moist air advection will continue through Thursday
adn into Thursday night, with pretty decent model agreement on a
shortwave trough riding around the upper-level ridge over the
Rockies and dropping through the northwesterly flow across the
central/northern Plains. The pairing of the two should allow a
broader area of shower/storm development on Thursday night into
Friday morning. While initiation and broader coverage are likely to
be in central to western NE, remnant showers/storms are possible in
the area, mainly from central to northeastern NE, and with the
showers/storms potentially lingering north of I-80 in NE/IA on
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

After the quiet weather this work week, more active weather is
possible for the weekend into early next week, with temperatures
remaining on the cooler side. An upper-level low is progged to
deepen over the upper Midwest, with deep troughing along the
Mississippi River to Ohio River valley areas, leaving the mid-
Missouri River area in very meridional (north to south) flow. This
pattern will reinforce the below-normal temperatures, and it also
could channel a series of shortwave troughs through the area, with
bouts of showers/storms as each wave passes. Timing any one of those
periods is a bit of a bugaboo right now, so will let blend POPs
ride, as they at least indicate a return to a wetter pattern

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

88D mosaic is rather active showing a line of TSRA over nern Neb
along a frontal boundary stretching from nrn IA into nern Neb.
Trends over the last couple hours indicate line of TSRA will
continue tracking SE and roll across KOFK btwn 22/01z-03z...and
KOMA/KLNK btwn 22/03z-05z. At this point...the severe threat for
wind looks minimal. Otherwise....VFR conditions will prevail the
remainder of the fcst pd.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mayes
LONG TERM...Mayes
AVIATION...DEE