Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 090552
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE ALLOWED WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 6 PM. SNOW HAS ENDED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES...AND
WITH WINDS SUBSIDING THIS EVENING...BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW REGION IN
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z WHEN ALL WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW CRITERIA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NATION`S
MID SECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AS ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL.

WE CONTINUE A VERY SMALL POP IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH A VERY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY WITH UPPER TEENS IN
OUR NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S IN OUR SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE STRONG FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGING TO THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES LEAVING OUR REGION IN
MORE OF A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG 1047 MB HIGH.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
THE NATION`S MID SECTION ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR SOME BETTER
MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING A BUNCH OF POPS FOR THE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE WINDS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING. REALIZING THERE WILL BE THIS VARIABILITY...FOR A
GENERAL FORECAST WENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15KTS AND MENTIONED
SOME GUSTS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIE
DOWN TO LESS THAN 12KTS LATER TUESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE PATCH OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS EVEN MORE
PATCHY. LOW CLOUDS STILL SKIRT KOMA. WITH SOME WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION DID MENTION A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KOMA WITH PATCHY MVFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY


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