Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 011142
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL RAIN
EVENTS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT TRAINING OF CELLS IN THAT AREA HAD
RESULTED IN ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ON THE EVENING SHIFT. RECENT TREND
ON RADAR HAS BEEN TOWARD DIMINISHING AREA OF MORE INTENSE CELLS IN
THE LINCOLN AREA WITH A GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WITH
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IOWA AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. PLAN TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PRIOR TO ZONE PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

SURFACE FRONT INDICATED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOWS
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK BUT OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIMITED FORCING INDICATED UNTIL TONIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE PERIOD 18Z-06Z THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE NEXT STRONG WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. POPS THEN REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE INTO THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
PULL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR A TASTE OF FALL-
LIKE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME FROST
POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TYPICAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 15Z. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LINGER
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AT ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES
IN KOFK. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA WILL TURN LIGHT SOUTH WIND TO NORTHERLY...AND COULD SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS AT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS WILL BE APPROACHING TAF SITES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN



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