Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 291846
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
146 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST. OVERALL POOR MIXING WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE COOLER READINGS ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DON`T BELIEVE ANY PRECIP
WOULD GET THIS FAR SOUTH.

BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.

MUCH COOLER AIR  THEN SETTLE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH RECENT MODELS TRENDING CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR HALLOWEEN...SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE COOL WEATHER LINGERS INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPS DO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...AND
WHERE PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP. GFS NOW IS THE DRIER MODEL...WHILE THE
ECMWF HINTS AT PRECIP POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF EXPECTED WEATHER BY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY IS LOW. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...SMITH



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