Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 202313
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
613 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM.

MILD AFTERNOONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AND PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HGTS REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. DID TRIM BACK LOWS TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW YET
MINIMAL OR EVEN NERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN TOWARD LOWER MO
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A BIT BREEZIER TUESDAY...READINGS REMAIN MILD
WITH HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...POSSIBLY A DEG OR TWO COOLER EAST
DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SERLY FLOW OFF OF A RETREATING SFC HIGH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED ON THIS MORNING U.A. FROM SRN MO/OK AREA
SOUTHWARD...H85 DWPTS AT OR > 10 DEG C AND SFC DWPTS IN UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S F...WILL BE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
ENTERING W COAST MIDDAY TODAY PROGRESSES EWD. BESIDES LIKELY
PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS TO CNTRL AND WRN ZONES BY WED MORNING...H85
THETA E ADVECTION IS QUITE STRONG AND COULD GENERATE ISOLD TSTMS
LATE TUE NIGHT AS WELL. INTRODUCED SLGT CHANCE WCNTRL/NWRN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT. JUST HOW QUICKLY TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PLAINS STILL
SLIGHTLY IN DOUBT WITH CANADIAN LAGGING OTHER MODELS. GENERALLY
LEANED TOWARD MAJORITY...NAM/GFS AND ECMWF...ALTHOUGH WITH ENERGY
LIFTING/REFORMING NEAR U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER KEPT POPS WEST OF
ECENTRAL NEBR/MOST OF WRN IA...INCLUDING OMAHA METRO YET DURING
THE DAY WED. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED...ISOLD TSTM MENTION
WAS MAINTAINED...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE ACTIVITY A BIT HIGHER THAN
ISOLD IF TRENDS PERSIST. HOWEVER...UPPED MOST POPS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WED NGT. WITH INCREASED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY PRECIP AS WELL...PREV MAX TEMP FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD WED...FALLING MOSTLY BETWEEN COOLER NAM AND WARMER MAV.
HOWEVER...AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MILD AND COULD SEE THE NEED TO ADJUST
UPWARD IF/WHEN IT BECOMES APPARENT SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE AFTN
SUNSHINE.

WITH NAM/GFS/ECMWF PROGRESSIVE WITH SRN PART OF TROUGH CROSSING
FORECAST AREA...APPEARS BULK OF PRECIP COULD ALSO MOVE EAST OF
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BY THU MORNING. STARTED MAKING NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS...I.E. DROPPING POPS NW AND LOWERING THEM EAST. ALSO
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS AS COOL ADVECTION BEHIND TROUGH IS MINIMAL AND
WARM ADVECTION ALREADY COMMENCES BY THU AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXTENDED STARTS DRY AND MILD ALTHOUGH 12Z ECMWF SLIPS A WEAK COOL
FRONT INTO FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST WILL INCLUDE GENERALLY
70S FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST ECMWF WOULD KNOCK
NRN AREAS INTO UPPER 60S SAT. ALSO A CASE COULD BE MADE BY 12Z
ECMWF/GFS FOR SOME MAX TEMPS REACHING 80 OR BETTER SUNDAY IF NEXT
TROUGH CAN APPROACH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PROVIDE INCREASING SWRLY
FLOW TO AREA.

A DIVERGENCE WAS NOTED BY DAY 7 BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WHICH COULD
LIKELY SPELL A DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST BY THAT TIME AND
BEYOND. HOWEVER...THEY EITHER SUPPORTED POPS ACROSS ERN
ZONES...THE FORMER...OR MAINLY DRY WITH THE LATTER. THUS THIS
FORECAST WILL CONTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS IA ZONES SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS REFLECTING LAST EVENINGS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN



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