000
FXUS63 KOAX 231158
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
658 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

A warm front was lifting through the forecast area early this
morning, with all convection north of the region. This will result
in one more summer like day with southerly breezy winds and high
temps in the mid to upper 80s today with dry conditions.

Dry weather continues through the evening, but scattered storms
should develop in central NE overnight, and could approach a few
counties in eastern NE before 12z Saturday.

Pops dramatically increase through the day Saturday as a cold
front begins to move toward the region with a marginal risk of
severe storms possible Saturday afternoon/evening. Shear of 30-35
knots and instability up to 2000 J/kg could result in a few severe
storms with wind and hail. PW values also increase to just under 2
inches, which is about 2-3 standard deviations above normal, so
locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

All precip should be mostly east of the area by daybreak Sunday
with much cooler temperatures in place.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

Quiet and cool weather through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

A 35kt low level jet should continue to push the storms north and
east into South Dakota and Iowa as the warm front lifts north and
h5 low pressure tracks from Utah into Wyoming. There may be some
patchy fog early...otherwise dewpoints spreads should increase as
temperatures warm quickly this morning and surface winds increase
to 10 to 20kts. Tonight...included llws at KOFK. Showers and
T-storms could begin to approach KOFK and KLNK by 10-12z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Zapotocny