280
FXUS63 KOAX 261107
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
607 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
  morning hours across much of the area. A Flood Watch remains
  in effect for portions of northeast Nebraska and northwestern
  Iowa. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches have already fallen and
  an additional 1-2 inches is possible this morning.

- Rain chances begin to decrease this afternoon from northwest
  to southeast. A few thunderstorms could linger across portions
  of the area through the early evening hours.

- Temperatures will begin to climb again, into the low to mid
  90s across the area, by Saturday and continuing through the
  weekend. Storms return to the northern portions of the area by
  Saturday evening, a few of which could be severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

This morning...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this morning
across the area as an upper-level shortwave trough approaches
the area and interacts with an existing boundary. This has
served as a focus and allowed convection to continue to develop
throughout the evening and into the morning hours. Widespread
rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches have fallen across portions of
the area and an additional 1-2 inches are possible through the
morning hours as PW values remain exceptionally high for the
area. The Flood Watch continues through this afternoon as the
possibility for additional flooding issues will persist through
the morning hours.

Today and Tonight...

Shower and thunderstorm activity should begin to wane by this
afternoon for much of the area that has received the bulk of the
rainfall as the shortwave begins to move off to the east. That
said, a few lingering storms are possible and any that do
develop during the afternoon hours could become strong. An
isolated severe storm also cannot be ruled out. The primary
concern from these storms would mainly be strong and gusty
winds.

Tomorrow...

The aforementioned systems continue to move away from the area
tomorrow and flow becomes nearly zonal. This will allow
temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s across
the area.

Weekend and Beyond...

By Saturday, temperatures will continue to climb into the lower
to mid 90s across the area with heat index values approaching
the upper 90s to around 102 in many locations. By Saturday
evening, a few storms are expected to move back into the
northern parts of the area as a surface trough is forecast to
deepen across central Nebraska serving as a focus for storms to
develop along with the heating of the day. While POPs are not
extremely high at this time, any storms that do develop will be
capable of producing strong winds and severe hail. Parts of the
area are are outlooked for a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe weather by the SPC.

By the beginning of the work week, rain chances come down again
with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s for highs
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Showers are widespread across northeast NE as of 6 AM (11z),
with a small area of thunderstorms ongoing near KLNK. Expect
the showers to persist at KOFK for the next hour or two, along
with prevailing MVFR conditions, which could temporarily lower
to IFR. At KLNK, the storms will remain in the vicinity for the
next 30 to 60 minutes, with the radar indicating widely
scattered showers farther to the south across north-central KS.
It`s unclear whether the showers will affect KLNK, so they have
been left out of the forecast. At KOMA, extrapolation of the
current storms near KLNK keeps them west of the terminal, with
the better potential for thunderstorms being in the 18-20z
timeframe along a front moving through the area.

The forecast will indicate prevailing VFR conditions at KOMA
and KLNK, with the possible exception being at KOMA this
afternoon with the expected thunderstorm activity. South winds
at less than 12 kt this morning will switch to west and then
northwest with passage of the front through the area.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.
IA...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Mead