Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 272334
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
534 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN SHORT TERM AS READINGS
WARM INTO SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING SHARPLY SUNDAY.

WARM ADVECTION MID CLOUDS ACROSS ERN/NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT LEAVING MAINLY
CIRRUS UNDER STRONG UPPER JET. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
THIS COULD LIMIT MIXING...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO FRIDAY AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF FRONT ON SATURDAY ATTEMPTING TO COMPENSATE. IN GENERAL MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY. NEARLY STEADY OR
POSSIBLY RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SW/FAR W...WITH
MAYBE 10 DEGREES F WARMER READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. A MORE SOLID
OR LESS SOLID CIRRUS DECK EITHER DAY COULD SUBTRACT OR ADD A FEW
DEGREES TO THESE NUMBERS.

SHARP COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
NEARLY STEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN FALLING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HOURLY READINGS AS FA IS
GENERALLY SNOW FREE AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED SOME MIDDAY
RECOVERY POSSIBLE. NO FLURRIES MENTIONED WITH COLD FRONT...SINCE
MEASURABLE CHANCES APPEARED VERY LOW AND PERIOD IN QUESTION IS
LATE DAY 2/DAY 3.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

COLD WEATHER WILL START THE EXTENDED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AFTER THAT POSSIBLY KEPT IN CHECK BY WEAKER REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES. ECMWF CONTINUED TO WRING WEST COAST MOISTURE
OUT OVER ROCKIES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WEAKENS AND WAS DRY THRU NEXT
THURSDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED THAT WAY FOR WEDNESDAY NOW...ALTHOUGH
IT BROUGHT A TROUGH AND MOISTURE TOWARD FA BY THURSDAY. SINCE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY OVER THE FA...AND GFS IS NOW SO
FOR WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN


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