Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 102120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
320 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Large scale flow over the CONUS will be stagnant over the next
several days with mean ridging west/trof east. However, a series of
of shortwaves dropping out of Canada into the northern/central
Plains will be the only one to bring a threat for precip to the
region Monday afternoon.

Cold air advection spills into the region tonight/Monday as a
clipper-type surface low digs southward through the upper midwest
into the mid MS valley. Models in agreement that is where the bulk
of precip activity will occur. It does appear though a sliver of the
northern CWA may see a drop or two Monday afternoon. The next
shortwave moving through on Wednesday drags another cold front with
it. However, the models are favoring areas well to the east of the
CWA for precip activity.

Cold conditions Monday-Thursday morning with highs topping out
generally in the low/mid 40s...overnight lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Models prog a bit more progressing pattern heading into next
weekend. However, only a small chance for seeing any precip on
Saturday morning. Well above normal temps expected in the extended
periods with highs generally in the mid/upper 40s and lows in the
mid 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions are forecast through Monday morning. Northwest
winds gusting to 25kt at times will decrease to less than 10kt
before 00Z, then turn to southwest overnight. Strong northwest
low level jet will develop overnight ahead of a cold front
scheduled to arrive Monday morning. Surface winds will turn to
northwest around 10kt, but low level wind shear is likely from 06Z
through 16Z when 50kt northwest winds at FL020 develop. Surface
winds will increase by mid Monday morning, averaging northwest 20
to 30kt before 18Z, but a further increase in speeds is likely
just after the TAF period.




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