Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 122320
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
620 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM RE-
DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WEATHER.

THIS MORNING/S OAX SOUNDING HAD 1.71 IN PWAT AND A WARM CLOUD LAYER
OF OVER 10K FT. CLOSED H5 LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA
AND EXTENDED INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
OVER WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. H7 MOISTURE OF 6DEG C WAS POOLED
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT WERE 2 TO 3 DEG C LOWER THAN
FORECAST BY THE NAM FRIDAY. WARM H7 TEMPERATURES +10C COVERED MUCH
OF SCENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. H85 DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO POOLED
IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH 14-16DEG C.

AT MIDDAY...THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WAS CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS NEAR I80.
IN BETWEEN...IT WAS CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...H5 SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH
AND STRENGTHEN FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 09Z. AT 20Z...THE SURFACE FRONT
HAD PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE METRO AREA AND WAS NEAR LNK. CAN
SEE THE FRONT ON THE WSR-88D WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES.

SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING
WITH THE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE HRRR/RAP DO HAVE SOME ISO TO SCT
CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME
PERIOD SOUTH OF THE METRO AREAS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. HAVE ONLY ISO/SCT COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
03Z...THEN INCREASE TO LIKELY COVERAGE IN SOUTHEAST NEB AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FOCUS MORE TO OUR
EAST...BUT MAY MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT SHEAR. SEEMS LIKE HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE OF A
CONCERN DUE TO THE PWATS AVAILABLE AND HIGH EFFICIENCY. H85
CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAKER IN OUR AREA AND STRONGER FARTHER EAST
INTO IOWA...SO THIS MAY TEMPER SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE OUR AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECASTS DO MENTION
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER AFTERNOON UPDATE SHRUNK THE AREA FOR THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THOUGH AND NOW IS JUST CLIPPING OUR AREA.

THE MOISTURE DOES NOT CLEAR OUT CLEANLY AND THERE IS SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STORM
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
NEAR RECORD LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TUESDAY ABOUT
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN HIGHS IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY AND MAY NEED TO ADD POPS FOR
SATURDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

IT APPEARS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD...
WITH BEST TSTM CHANCES SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. WILL AMEND IF
NEEDED. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER


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