Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 291955

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
255 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

Forecast area remains status quo in the short term as the upper
low continues to spin across the Lower Ohio river valley. Main
impact for us will be areal extent of cloud cover, which may
increase as we head into the weekend as low level moisture
increases. Surface ridge remains across the forecast area early in
the period then begins to shift east. Nam/HRRR/SREF models all
suggest some fog will develop tonight underneath the ridge where
winds could go completely calm, thus will add some fog to the
forecast. Will have to watch for locally dense fog in the Platte
River valley. Models also hint at some patchy fog Friday night but
will wait to add that later on. Low level clouds should increase
from the east Friday night into Saturday. Models do hint at some
sprinkles or drizzle possible across western Iowa, but really not
confident there`s enough lift to generate any precip. Lows mostly
in the 40s next few nights, highs in the lower 70s Friday and
Saturday, and mid 70s Sunday as low shifts to the east and upper
ridge builds back onto the Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

Upper ridge still in place Monday ahead of the next trough that is
moving into the central Rockies. This should result in well above
normal temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Precip chances begin
to increase Monday night into Tuesday night as moisture increases,
diffluent flow aloft develops, and dynamic height falls begin to
impact the area. As usual, there are timing differences among the
mainsuite models on timing Wednesday, with system north and east
of the area by Thursday.


Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

Mesoanalysis as of 17z revealed a surface ridge axis from central
Minnesota through eastern Nebraska into central Kansas. These data
indicate an axis of higher low-level moisture content wrapping
around a deep-layer cyclone over the Ohio Valley, and extending
as far west as the mid Missouri Valley. This moisture has
contributed to scattered cumulus at the top of the growing
boundary layer, and will likely foster areas of fog formation late
tonight into early Friday. The greatest potential for MVFR
visibilities appears to be at KOFK and KOMA in the 30/09z-30/14z
time frame. Otherwise, expect prevailing VFR conditions through
the remainder of the forecast period.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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