Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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765
FXUS63 KOAX 111827
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1227 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SIMILAR SITUATION THIS MORNING WITH YESTERDAY MORNING AS NEXT BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKS OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN IOWA
DURING THE DAY. YESTERDAYS EVENT WAS MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST
WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE SHOWS MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH NO SURFACE REPORTS OF SNOW UPSTREAM OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 08Z. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
HIGH AND EAST OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
PERIOD FOR THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE ALSO SHOWS SIMILAR
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE SNOW BAND DURING THIS TIME. ALSO LIKE
YESTERDAY IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF IOWA WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE BY THIS
EVENING IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

COLDER AIR THEN MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
MAIN CORE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY. BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS DURING THIS TIME THEN STARTS TO PUSH EAST AS A WARM FRONT
ON SATURDAY. THE WARM ADVECTION AND ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

TREND TURNS TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF WARM ADVECTION BRINGING SOME CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG
WARMING INDICATED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE WSR-88D IS SHOWING SOME STRONGER RETURNS OVER MADISON AND
COLFAX COUNTIES AND SOME LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WITH
VSBYS RESTRICTIONS OF 1 TO 2 MILES. MENTION MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
KOFK AND KOMA WITH THIS INITIAL LIFT. MAIN SNOW AREA IS FORECAST
TO SET UP FARTHER NORTH AND CLIP KOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES FARTHER
SOUTH...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH IF THIS IS ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL
BANDING.  SOME FLURRIES COULD MAKE IT TO KLNK...HOWEVER FOR NOW
EMPHASIZED THE DETERIORATING CIGS TO MVFR/PATCHY IFR. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10KTS BECOMING NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
ABOVE 12KTS AND IMPROVING TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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