Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 221749
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1149 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Although periods of mixed precipitation are likely for today and
this evening across the area, confidence in QPF rather limited.

First round of precipitation was moving across the area early this
morning. Snow looks to be the primary precip type through 12Z with
periods of freezing drizzle or mixed precip after that through
most of the day, especially southeast half. Snow amounts look to
remain limited today across southern parts of the area with
soundings suggesting mid level drying coming into the area and
impacting dendritic layer resulting in mainly freezing drizzle or
sleet at times. Somewhat better indication of up to 2 inches for
parts of northeast Nebraska this afternoon and evening as forcing
increases with approach of main short wave. Models differ on QPF
for the evening period so not real confident on amounts currently
in forecast and extent of freezing rain or drizzle in parts of the
south. Headlines will remain unchanged for now.

Things dry out tonight as the wave lifts northeast, but next
system approaches late Friday night into Saturday. Stronger
forcing and better moisture are indicated by models with this
system so potential will exist for better snow amounts,
especially north half of the area on Saturday. Temperatures will
be warmer in the south however so sharp gradient will likely exist
across the area somewhere with latest indication placing near a
LNK to OMA line. More mixed precip likely along and in vicinity of
that line, making for another challenging forecast. System moves
out Saturday night with precip ending during the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Dry weather returns for Sunday along with a warming trend which
looks to extend into the early part of next week before the next
cold front drops in from the north on Wednesday. Not especially
cold air with this front but enough to give the area another
chance of mixed precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday as
another strong upper trough moves through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

First round of snow/sleet and freezing drizzle mix has moved
across the TAF sites. The wsr-88d mosaic has the next area of snow
developing in west central Nebraska. There is a lull in organized
precipitation early in the TAF period with snow increasing across
northeast Nebraska by mid afternoon and a mix of
snow/sleet/freezing rain developing for KLNK/KOMA. The hi-
resolution models lean toward freezing drizzle being the
predominant precipitation type later this afternoon and this
evening. MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions with ceilings fl003-013 this
afternoon and this evening. Improving conditions are forecast
once the low/mid level flow veers to the west and the northwest
08-10Z. Some of the models were hinting at MVFR conditions
returning to northeast Nebraska late in the TAF period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NEZ012-
     015-017-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-090>093.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-
     016-030-078-088-089.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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