Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 032332
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
632 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US...WITH DIGGING UPPER LOW IN THE WEST.  EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WERE SUBTLE AND WELL-REMOVED FROM
THE PLAINS.  THERMAL RIDGE AT 850MB WAS FIRMLY LOCKED OVER THE
CENTRAL TO HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES LOOMING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND 8C+ DEWPOINTS
EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD.  SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS
CENTERED IN WESTERN ND...WITH SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARD NORTHEAST NM.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
TONIGHT AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH
GREATER CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE
LEANING DRY TONIGHT...AND HAVE A HARD TIME ARGUING WITH THAT
SOLUTION...AS AREA REMAINS SQUARELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING. IT IS A `DIRTY RIDGE` THOUGH...WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...AND EVEN WEAK WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO NORTHEAST NEB
TONIGHT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A STRAY SHOWER/STORM.  HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THERE IN A LIMITED AREA.  TOMORROW LOOKS MUCH LIKE
TODAY...AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG AND UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT SIMILAR SETUP FRIDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO TRIGGER A STRAY
SHOWER/STORM AGAIN IN THE SAME AREA OF NORTHEAST NEB.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY FROM CENTRAL NEB TOWARD EASTERN SD
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG A
DRYLINE FEATURE.  THIS MAY JUST SKIM NORTHEAST NEB BEFORE 00Z...BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO
MUCH OF THE AREA.  STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE PERSISTENCE OF
THIS CONVECTION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS.  WITH THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING COMES A MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE CWA.  WITH THE 850MB FRONT STILL LINGERING IN THE MO
RIVER VALLEY...MAY SEE SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE US/CANADA BORDER...DRAGGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL US.  THIS SHOULD STABILIZE THE CENTRAL US
AND LIKELY DRIVE THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WELL
SOUTH INTO KS/MO.  SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS INSTABILITY IS PUSHED SOUTH...WITH SOME
DEFORMATION-TYPE RAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.  MODEL BLEND PRODUCED
PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT WITH ALL MODELS
DRY...SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA...AND BOUNDARY
WELL SOUTH IN TX/AR...CANNOT FIND A REASON TO KEEP A PRECIP
MENTION...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE
REMOVED IT.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT KOFK AT THIS POINT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN


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