Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 222315
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.

IT WAS A CHILLY START WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S (WAYNE) AND
MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH QUITE A BIT OF VALLEY/RIVER FOG. SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IS PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 70S...HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE. DEEPER MOISTURE HAS
MADE IT INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THIS IS WHERE THE SHOWERS
WERE PER THE WSR- 88D MOSAIC LATE THIS MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAD INCREASED AND WAS JUST
WEST OF AN AINSWORTH TO LEXINGTON LINE. ACCORDING TO THE TOTAL
LIGHTNING AND NLDN...THE BULK OF THE THUNDER IS CLOSER TO THE
CLOSED H5 LOW OVER WYOMING AND COLORADO.

TONIGHT...THE CLOSED H5 LOW OPENS UP AND THERE IS DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
TROF ENERGY THAT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND PROGRESS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE
FETCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE HIGHER H7 DEWPOINTS MAKE IN
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z.  WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE POPS
WITH HIGH POPS IN THE WEST AND MAINLY DRY FOR WESTERN IOWA AND FAR
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE ORIENTATION AND
PROGRESS OF THE PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH CONTINUED OMEGA/WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE INTENSITY WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THOUGH. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE LONGWAVE TROF STALLS OVER THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY.  THIS FEATURE WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY TO ONLY LOW POPS.  MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY...SO
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE NEXT LONG WAVE
TROF EVOLVES...MAY NEED TO ADD RAIN CHANCES IN FOR SUNDAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW...AS THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY 12Z AT KOFK...
BY 15Z AT KLNK AND BY 18Z AT KOMA. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 12 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THEN INCREASE MORE INTO THE
12 TO 18 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER


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