Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 280521
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1121 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

MORNING MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE SHORT TERM PDS
ADVERTISING A BROAD UPPER TROF ACROSS THE CONUS AND EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF POS TILT LONG WAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO THE WEST COAST. ALL IN AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH STRONG
VORT MAX SITUATED OVER CA/NV BY TUES AFTN. ALL THIS LEADING TO A
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR SWEEPING SOUTH AND ENVELOPING THE
CNTRL/ERN CONUS BY MID WEEK. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SN IS PROGGED
SUN EVENING BASICALLY ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER WHERE STRENGTHENING
285K ISENTROPIC FORCING/LOW COND PRES DEF WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
DEEP FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS PROGGED THRU MON EVENING ALONG THE
BNDRY AS IT DROPS THRU THE CWA. WEAK MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...WITH 2 INCHES OR SO
NORTH AND AN INCH OR SO SOUTH BE EVENTS END EARLY TUES MORNING. AS
AS FOR TEMPS...TUES LOOKING BITTERLY COLD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH/LOW TEENS SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

GFS/ECM/CMC REMAIN IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY INTO THE EXTENDED
PDS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALL ADVERTISE  CA/NV VORT MAX ON
SRN END OF POS TILT TROF FORMS INTO A CLOSED CUT OFF
LOW...EVENTUALLY SETTLING IN OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
HOWEVER...THE ECM QUICKLY SHEARS THE LOW APART AS IT CONTINUES
PUSHING SOUTH. GFS IN THE MEANTIME LIFTS THE UPPER LOW/SFC
REFLECTION INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS FRIDAY THEN INTO THE SRN GREAT
LAKES SAT MORNING. WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE CMC SUPPORTING THE
GFS SOLUTION...WILL FAVOR GFS/CMC. GOING FCST ALREADY HAS SMALL
POPS FOR SN IN PLACE FRI/FRI NIGHT...SO SEEN NO REASON FOR ANY
CHANGES. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED...BUT MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. SNOW
SHOULD DEVELOP AT KOFK JUST PAST THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST
29/06-12Z...AND POSSIBLY AT KOMA/KLNK BY 29/12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEWALD


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