000
FXUS63 KOAX 142023
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FAST PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ALTERNATING PERIODS OF SPRING TO WINTER CONDITIONS.

UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AT MID AFTERNOON
WITH SPOTTY INSTABILITY SHOWERS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING WITH
THE SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SPREADING INTO EASTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA
BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. QUICK RETURN
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AS SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANCES
STAYING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST INTO
NORTHERN IOWA ON WEDNESDAY IT DRAGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS BETTER
FORCING AND MOISTURE STAYS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DRY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE THEN STALLS ACROSS
KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS OVERRUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO SEE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. HELD
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM GUIDANCE THERE ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS A
RESULT OF EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SPLIT
FLOW DEVELOPING. MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WAVES
THAT COME ACROSS OVER THE EASTER WEEKEND SO RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH POPS DURING THIS TIME. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INDICATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BOTH GFS AND EURO AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE INTO NCNTRL NEBR AT 18Z WILL SPREAD
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE FL040. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK. A PERIOD OF
LIGHTER WINDS COULD PRECEDE DISTURBANCE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE WINDS DECREASE
AGAIN.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...CHERMOK