Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 042010
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE IN REGARDS TO TSTM POTENTIAL...WITH
SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. HIGHEST RISK APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUR AREA WAS STILL IN NORTHWEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ONE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT JUST PRODUCING
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE STRONGER UP ACROSS
CANADA. WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO SHOWED MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A RIDGE ALOFT. MOIST AXIS AT 850 MB WAS STILL TO OUR
WEST...FROM TEXAS UP INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. 20Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. 12Z KOAX SOUNDING
ONLY HAD ABOUT 0.67 PRECIPITABLE WATER...BUT THIS WILL BE INCREASING
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

TONIGHT...KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY
FROM MID EVENING ONWARD INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS OFFER SOME VARYING SOLUTIONS...BUT GENERALLY THE
AREA MENTIONED SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PCPN
FOR TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP HOLD LOWS UP IN THE 63 TO 67
RANGE AT MOST SPOTS.

SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 70 IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING ABOUT 90. LACK OF FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCES ARE
NOT ZERO...BUT AT THIS TIME KEPT POPS AT 14 OR LESS. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND TWO INCHES THERE. CONSENSUS FROM
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SLOWED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN.
THIS MEANS THE BEST STORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
OF LINCOLN AND OMAHA. THAT IS ALSO THE AREA WITH A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. IF THE FRONT SPEEDS UP...RAIN CHANCES WOULD NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED UPWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

FOR MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO TWO INCHES OR MORE OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON.  CLOUDS AND
PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH
AND 80 TO 85 SOUTH. SEVERE STORM CHANCES SEEM FAIRLY SMALL BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
MOSTLY 75 TO 80.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO BIG CHANGES IN HOW THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN THIS PERIOD.
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST...THEN TURN TO SOUTHWEST AS A
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT COOL WITH NOT MUCH CHANCE OF RAIN...THEN
SLOWLY MODERATE. TSTM CHANCES SHOULD REACH 20 TO 40 PERCENT BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN SMALL CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH 06Z.
LATER TONIGHT...WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND IF IT MAKES IT INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AT KOFK ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z...SO THIS MAY BE ADDED.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 8-12KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AT KOFK TONIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS 12-16KTS AND
GUSTY LATER SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY AFTER 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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