Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 230430
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1130 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Large upper level low centered over southwestern Ontario is forecast
to drop south/southwest over the next couple days with a few
embedded shortwaves moving through the flow around the low. The
first one had moved through the region this morning producing
scattered showers across our far southeastern counties. The second
impulse continues to drop southeast across western South
Dakota/Nebraska this afternoon allowing a surface cold front to push
southeast. Scattered convection is likely to continue to develop
along this boundary through peak heating with increasing mid-level
lapse rates associated with the upper impulse. Overall severe threat
looks minimal with limited moisture leading to weaker instability,
but some strong winds and marginally severe hail are possible.
This activity will continue to push southeast through the early
evening hours but showers main persist through the overnight
across our far southeastern counties.

A break in pcpn is likely through much of Tuesday morning however
with the heating of the day, we think occasional showers will pop up
and rotate southeast within the northwesterly flow around the big
upper low. These look to be mostly diurnally driven and should
diminish after sunset.

Wednesday looks dry! High pressure will linger overhead through much
of the day but return flow will set up overnight into Thursday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A large upper low over southwestern Canada will slide east along the
International border and send embedded shortwave troughs into the
region beginning Thursday when we will have our next chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, off and on chances of
precipitation remains through the weekend as continued mid-level
impulses take aim at the region around the large upper low slowly
sliding east across southern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 15z with patchy
showers south of KLNK through 09Z. Closed upper low over northern
Minnesota at the start of the period will drop south into western
Iowa through 00Z then into northern Missouri by 06Z. More
scattered showers are expected to develop after 18Z as instability
increases beneath the cold air aloft with surface heating. VFR
conditions are still expected to prevail with FL035-FL045 BKN-OVC
ceilings.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Fobert



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