Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 191954
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL US.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEH
PLAINS...WITH TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US CENTERED IN NORTHERN QB.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NTOED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER...IN
SOUTHERN CA...AND IN OR/WA.  UPPER-LEVEL JET WAS DESCENDING AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND.  850MB HIGH WAS CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RIDGE AXIS ETENDING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND WITH SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN TX/LA.
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN WESTERN ONT...WITH WIND SHIFT
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH MN TO NEAR KFSD TO NEAR KLBF TO SECONDARY
LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CO...BUT LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR MOISTURE
GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL TO UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE MEANDERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...THEN IS REPLACED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE CONTINUED NEAR- TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MIN TEMPS AND ABOVE-NORMAL MAX TEMPS. SOUTHERN
PLAINS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THAT REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WHILE EASTERN NEB AND EASTWARD REMAINS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL TAP MOISTURE STREAMING BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  MAY SEE SOME
THUNDER WITH THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS MODELS
DO HINT AT SOME MUCAPE.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB IN ITS WAKE.  850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
JUMP INTO THE MID TEENS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  HAVE BUMPED MAX
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MODEL BLEND...BUT BELIEVE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE YET.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SFC FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO GO FROM SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...


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