000
FXUS63 KOAX 160426
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1126 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK...KOMA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL CIGS. INCREASING CHANCE OF SCATTERED TRW AFTER 22Z AS MID
LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TSTM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.

CURRENT MAIN LARGE SCALE FEATURES AT 500 MB ARE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...FAIRLY FAST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS...CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH AND A STRONGER CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA YESTERDAY...WAS NOW A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IOWA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF NEBRASKA
AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS. DRIER AIR WAS NOTED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S OR 40S...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S WERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT...BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE MORE SUCCESS ON THURSDAY. KEPT SOME
CHANCE OF TSTMS GOING MOST AREAS TONIGHT IN OUR AREA NORTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THETA E ADVECTION. RECENT RUNS
OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAP13 MODEL SEEM REASONABLE WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF PCPN TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

THE OKLAHOMA CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BORDER OF
MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HEIGHTS FALL ALONG
THE WEST COAST. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
UTAH WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME
CHANCE OF TSTMS. BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT STORMS TO TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MAIN MCS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD FOR NOW AS WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY AS A
FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THIS LOOKS LIKE
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR OUR AREA.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY BY WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER RIDGE AT 500 MB BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. GENERALLY USED
A MODEL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH NO ONE MODEL SEEMING
TO STAND OUT ABOVE THE OTHERS. DID LOWER BLENDED DEWPOINTS A
BIT...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE DONE THE PAST FEW DAYS.

MILLER

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT