000
FXUS63 KOAX 050506
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1106 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF KLNK/KOFK OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD LINGER AT KOMA INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AND POSSIBLY REDEVELOP IN NERN NEBR WITH WEAK HEATING THU AFTN.
LIGHT SNOW...MOSTLY ALOFT IN SERN NEBR SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH
OF KLNK/KOMA TNGT WITH ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY AT THOSE SITES HAVING
MINIMAL OR NO AVIATION IMPACTS.

CHERMOK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRY POTENTIAL
AND THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS.

AT 18Z...THE H5 TROF EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA WEST TOWARD UTAH.
THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION HAD SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH A FEW
FLURRIES AND BLOWING SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 15 TO 30 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS WERE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TONIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH
CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET
SEGMENT ACROSS COLORADO WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS...18Z NAM/12 GFS/4KM
WRF/HOPWRF/RAP/HRRR ARE INDICATING THAT WITH THIS FEATURE...MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
AND A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND MAY DEVELOP...SOME SAY BIE
TO GLENWOOD SOUTH...WHILE OTHERS LNK TO OMA SOUTH. THERE MAY BE
SOME SATURATION ISSUES WHICH COULD HINDER SNOW.  FOR NOW...HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BIE TO RED OAK...BUT STILL DID
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS FARTHER NORTH TOWARD OMAHA AND
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MOST LIKELY IT WOULD BE A DUSTING WITH AMOUNTS
LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH. SHOULD THE BAND DEVELOP...IT WOULD BAND
QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY 4AM.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20KTS
SUSTAINED AND COLD TEMPERATURES...DID INCLUDE A FEW COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...MAINLY AFTER 10PM
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES WILL GET EVEN COLDER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS STRONG.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

ZAPOTOCNY

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLOW
MODERATION TOWARDS DAYS 6 AND 7. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A DEEP
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS WILL BRING IN MEASURABLE SNOW TO
KANSAS...NEBRASKA AND IOWA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT
WEEK. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE MINIMAL FOR THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A
SHARPER AMPLITUDE TROUGH VERSUS THE GFS...WHICH IS BROADER. IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...THERE ARE ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. A WARM UP IS FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RISE FROM
10 TO 15 ON MONDAY TO THE MID 20S BY WEDNESDAY.

SMITH

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-
     017.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$