Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 171200
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
700 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE PRIMARY NEAR-TERM CONCERN IS DENSE
FOG...THIS TIME OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. METARS FOR SDA/ICL/RDK/AIO
HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES. MUCH OF
THIS DENSE FOG IS TIED TO LAST NIGHTS RAINFALL AND GIVEN THE LIGHT
WIND REGIME IN PLACE SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE STICKING AROUND UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK.

FOR TODAY EXPECT DRY WEATHER...AT LEAST UNITL EARLY EVENING...AS
THE AREA IS IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. BY TONIGHT THE NEXT FEATURE
ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ACCOMPANIED BY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AVERAGING AROUND 4-6 DM. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...FOR OUR AREA CONDITIONS JUST
AREN/T IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN. INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...INSTABILITY WANES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
ARE MARGINAL ALONG WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET DISPLACED WELL TO OUR
WEST. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS STRONG STORMS PROPAGATE
EAST...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR US WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING EAST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF MONDAY AFTN/EVENING AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA. ITS HARD TO SAY THIS WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE AT
MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN HOW HIT AND MISS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
RECENTLY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECT TIMING/PLACEMENT TO WORK ITSELF OUT IN
FORTHCOMING MODEL RUNS. THEREAFTER THE FORECAST PICTURE IS QUITE
UNCLEAR WITH A SIMILAR STORY OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. LATEST LONG TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING A DOSE OF COOLER AIR
AND VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

IFR CONDITIONS AT KOFK WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS
THEN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING AT
KOFK...KLNK...AND KOMA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL HELP TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY IMPACT ALL SITES AFTER 06-08Z. MVFR CONDITIONS RE THEN
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ080-090-
     091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...SMITH



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