Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 150444
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1144 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Mixed bag of weather conditions today, from fog and drizzle to
showers and thunderstorms. Subjective 12Z upper-air analysis
indicates upper-level troughing in the northern Rockies, with a 130-
145kt jet streak from the central Dakotas through the northern Great
Lakes. An 850mb low was centered over the High Plains, with a 45kt
southwesterly low-level jet in KS transporting moisture into
southeast NE/southern IA ahead of the 850mb front. Surface low at
19Z was centered in southeast CO, with front extending through
southwest to northeast KS, into southeast NE to southwest IA, and
toward a secondary low/trough in central IA. Thunderstorms were
mainly along and north of that front, with drizzle and some fog
behind it, and with a tight pressure gradient and gusty northwest
winds from southwest to north central NE into central SD.

Main forecast concern is exit of showers this evening and tonight.
With cold air advection on its way, drying will reach the western
CWA this evening, and showers/storms along the front will be shunted
southeastward and out of the area. Have just a few hours of
lingering showers and storms there. Wraparound rain will move across
SD this evening into tonight and should clip northeast NE/northwest
IA, and have some lingering showers there, too. Winds will increase
quickly this evening, with some 30kt/gusting to 40kt winds possible
for a couple of hours and a more prevailing 15-20kt gusting to 25-
30kt overnight.

Pressure gradient will slacken through the day on Sunday as fast-
moving trough slides east and surface high slides in behind it, with
warm air advection returning on Monday. Sunday night may get fairly
chilly, with clear skies and lighter winds, and have included
frost mention in areas that are both sensitive and not very
sensitive to a frost. Will mention frost potential in the HWO for
those areas that are still activated for headlines. Temperatures
should moderate through Tuesday under fair skies and increasing
mid-level temperatures, even with a weak shortwave passage on
Monday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

As upper-level flow transitions from northwesterly to southwesterly,
mid-level temperatures will continue to moderate. Dry airmass in
place will keep skies fair, even with another fast-moving shortwave
passage on Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to moderate through
the week, with above-normal highs in the 70s and with lows in the
40s to 50s. First sign of more active weather arrives sometime late
Saturday or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

MVFR conditions at KLNK/KOMA becoming VFR by 07-10z. Northwest
winds 19-28 knots diminishing to less than 12 knots by 12-13z.
Could see winds increase again 12 to 20 knots at KOFK 19-23z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mayes
LONG TERM...Mayes
AVIATION...DeWald



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