Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 232050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
350 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Question whether thunderstorms will redevelop late this
afternoon/evening is initial concern...followed by pcpn chances in
the rest of the near term periods. Anticipated severe weather
threat not looking all that good at the moment. Recent sfc obs
reveal little in the way depicting a warm front upon which the
last several runs of the RAP13 has been advertising convection
would erupt. Current 88D mosaic is showing isolated cells over
nern KS and well as a few within our IA CWA...but it appears now
the threat for scattered TSRA development within the CWA has
diminished significantly with focus for convection more to the
north associated with potent vort max lifting into srn MN.
However...trend over the last hour has been CU field organizing
along with cluster of cells invof the srn CWA. Will therefore
focus evening POPs south...then the rest of tonight carry token
20s tonight with focus mainly over the ern CWA.

In regards to pcpn activity Wednesday afternoon/night...a cold front
dropping through the CWA will slow and become near stationary in the
vicinity of the srn CWA. Environment will be moisture rich during
this time...and with prolonged mid layer ageostrophic lift generous
rainfall accumulations could be realized along and south of I-80 by
events end early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Pcpn chances are pretty much in place through the majority of the
extended periods. Beginning Friday night a lifting warm front in
conjunction with llvl jet/strong theta-E advection is progged to
induce TSRA over the CWA. Passing vort max helps displace best
moisture/forcing just a bit to the east then on Saturday.
Thereafter...confidence pertaining to pcpn chance is low at best.
Therefore will maintain token POPs the remainder of the fcst pd.


Issued at 1232 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

MVFR ceilings continue to work through the TAF sites this morning,
but these will likely scatter this afternoon and lift to near or
above 3000 feet. Have removed all mention of rain/thunder from the
TAF forecast due to uncertainty in redevelopment this afternoon,
and expected isolated nature if anything does occur. Surface cold
front will move through all 3 TAF sites overnight and switch the
winds to the northwest. We may see some additional MVFR ceilings
overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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