Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 011802
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
102 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL RAIN
EVENTS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TEMPERATURES AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE FRONT INDICATED TO LINGER OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOWS
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK BUT OTHER THAN THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIMITED FORCING INDICATED UNTIL TONIGHT. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE PERIOD 18Z-06Z THEN BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE NEXT STRONG WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. POPS THEN REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE INTO THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
PULL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR A TASTE OF FALL-
LIKE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COLDER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME FROST
POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE A
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TYPICAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED EAST OF ALL THREE TAF SITES AS
OF 18Z. ALL THREE TAF SITES WERE MVFR TO VFR. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MEYER



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