Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 240819
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
319 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Precipitation chances will be increasing through the day with
strong and possibly severe storms affecting the area later this
afternoon through early evening.

An accas field noted on recent 11-3.9u satellite imagery was
moving through the forecast area, with radar now picking up a few
very small but potent showers in northwest/southeast oriented
band. Most recent HRRR model runs picked up on this well, with
best forcing continuing to lift northward through the forecast
area before 12z.

Meanwhile, the eastward advancing north/south band of
thundershowers across central NE and western KS oriented ahead of
an advancing cold front should make progress eastward into at
least eastern NE 12-15z, although these should not be particularly
strong. By mid morning, we may also see new development in the
warm sector across eastern KS, which may move into our southern
forecast area south of I80 15-18z. Beyond then, thunderstorms
should become more numerous through the remainder of the afternoon
as instability builds, eventually reaching 2000-2500 J/kg as
surface dewpoints peak near or in the lower 70s. Bulk shear of
30-35 knots and more unidirectional hodographs should support
multicells, with at least a marginal risk of severe storms. NSSL
WRF 4km model suggests hail in some of the strong storms could
reach 1-1.5", which may be a bit greater probability than latest
Day outlook from SPC. PW values also increase to around 2" during
the afternoon and early evening...which is 2-3 standard deviations
above normal. Thus locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Storms
should be progressive, but some areas could see 1-1.5" before all
precip comes to and by daybreak Sunday.

Much cooler and drier weather for Sunday and Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Dry weather through Thursday as upper ridge builds across the
Plains. Temps do warm back into the mid to upper 70s during this
time. Rain chances increase by Thursday night and Friday as the
next upper wave moves out of the central Rockies, although timing
is off between the models with GFS about a day faster than the
ECWMF.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected tonight, with wind shear likely at all
sites through morning. Have indicated showers reaching KOFK in the
morning and KOMA/KLNK in the early afternoon, with a couple hours
of PROB30 thunder mention at each site at the best guess of
timing. Front will bring winds around to the west/northwest at
KOFK before the end of the TAF period.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Mayes



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