Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 281154
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
654 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Thunderstorm chances/precipitation amounts will provide the main
forecast challenges. Storms last evening were efficient rain
producers and there were some locally heavy amounts.

300 mb winds at 00Z last evening were generally 70 to 90 knots
from eastern Kansas across our area and into Minnesota last
evening. This was ahead of the closed low at 500 mb which was in
western Kansas. Main area of height falls with that feature was
over Oklahoma. Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning
showed the closed low had moved to northern Kansas...to the
southwest of Lincoln. Models are all in fairly good agreement...
tracking the low into southwest Minnesota by early evening. That
will lift away from our area tonight...as some energy starts to
move our of the trough over the Pacific northwest and another
closed low forms off the California coast.

Today...will generally follow recent runs of the high resolution
experimental HRRR for timing of showers/thunderstorms. Heaviest
rain should be over northeast Nebraska...tied to deformation zone
but some storms will affect parts of southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. Surface low should move to northwest Iowa this
afternoon with our winds increasing from the west or northwest.
Have rain chances mainly 30-60 percent this afternoon as things
destabilize a bit. Coverage of showers/storms should decrease
this evening.

Models hint at light precipitation possible late tonight in parts
of eastern Nebraska. NAM is a little farther north compared to the
GFS. Forecast soundings show enough elevated instability that if
something occurs...it will probably have thunder. Otherwise...it
looks like the atmosphere should destabilize more during the
afternoon with mixed layer CAPE values reaching 1500-2000 J/KG.
0-6 km bulk shear is expected to be fairly weak though...so not
expecting much storm organization at this time. Similar situation
is likely on Monday. Locally heavy rain also seems possible on
Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Chance for showers/storms will continue through Wednesday...then
tried to show a mainly dry forecast from Wednesday night through
Friday. Models by mid week have a ridge developing over the
western United States and a trough moving through the plains. With
time...both features move eastward. Hopeful that this will allow
for things to dry out a bit locally.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Overall VFR conditions are expected as upper disturbance moves
east of the area. A few MVFR ceilings continue to pass over TAF
sites this morning but do expect this to improve. Scattered
showers possible mainly at KOFK through afternoon.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Kern



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