Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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688
FXUS63 KOAX 270850
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
350 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

WV imagery this morning showing northwest flow aloft with an
upstream shortwave ridge over the northern high Plains followed by
a a shortwave trof currently moving ashore over the coastline of
British Columbia. Also noted was scattered convection riding atop
aforementioned ridge in MT. At the surface...large area of high
pressure was in control over the central CONUS.

Models are in pretty good agreement potential for severe storms will
exist over the next several days along with a good chance for a
prolonged period of precipitation for some location.

Increasing low level theta-E advection coupled with daytime heating
will allow for quick destabiliation as a warm front lifts
northward this afternoon. But with strong cap in
place...convection will likely be held in check until late
afternoon. At any rate...initiation is progged on nose of steep
sfc-3km lapse rates/edge of cap over swrn SD/nrn Neb panhandle.
Line of convection will increase in intensity/areal coverage this
evening as it pushes eastward with onset of strengthening low
level jet. Activity will likely be in the form of a QLCS when it
reaches the CWA shortly before midnight...leading to a probable
damaging wind event.

Precip into Wednesday most likely to be found over the eastern CWA
as a cold front moves in from the west. Models prog this cold front
to stall from about s-cntrl IA to n-cntrl KS Wednesday night...and
remain in the vicinity of the southern CWA all the way into Thursday
night. This...in addition to a shortwave trof approaching from
the northwest will lead to the potential for an additional round
severe storms and generous rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Precip chances return to the region next weekend with better chances
coming early next week in association with a Pacific NW trof pushing
into the central Plains. Otherwise...expect max temps to be just
below normal over the weekend with near normal temps early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast cycle.
Light and variable surface winds will become southerly and
increase with gusts to near 30kts by late afternoon/early evening.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Did add a Prob30 group to account for pcpn chances.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Kern



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