000
FXUS63 KOAX 061137
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
537 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE AREAS OF EARLY MORNING FREEZING FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS...THEN TEMPERATURES.  ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE BAND OF SLEET/SNOW INDEED FILLED IN DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY
AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PICKED UP SOME SLIGHT AMOUNTS
BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH AND ONE INCH FROM FAIRBURY...TO
BEATRICE...TECUMSEH AND FALLS CITY. THIS BAND HAD DIMINISHED QUITE
A BIT...BUT WAS NEAR COLUMBIA MISSOURI. LOCALLY...SKIES VARY FROM
CLEAR TO CLOUDY AND THERE ARE VARIABLE AMOUNTS VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S...THIS
IS FREEZING FOG. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAD BACKED THE CLOUDS
WESTWARD...BY 12Z...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE BEGUN TO TRANSITION
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THEM BACK AND
EVENTUALLY BREAK THEM UP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. SOME
SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THESE CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS.  OF NOTE ON THE UPPER AIR CHARTS/SATELLITE/LIGHTNING
WERE HEIGHT FALLS OFF THE WEST COAST AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY.

A STRONG 100KT JET WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS MANITOBA CANADA WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SOME OF THESE COULD
AFFECT PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED YESTERDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE 30-40KT RANGE.  WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND THIS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE. WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY
DROP TO CLOSE TO FREEZING. THINK WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP IN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER IN WESTERN IOWA...THEY MAY DROP A LITTLE
MORE.

12Z FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE OVER WYOMING AND COLORADO
WITH LEADING SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM.  AT H3...THERE IS A
ENHANCED LIFT OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET AND A BIT OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AS A SECOND
JET STREAK TRACKS ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS. THE SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD BE INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHERE THEY DIFFER IS IN THE DETAILS AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
RIPPLES IN THE WAVE. THE EC REALLY DOES NOT GET MUCH GOING UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE NAM HAS A MORE INTENSE
BAND ALL DAY LONG...AND THE GFS IS IN-BETWEEN. WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...THINK
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH IS BEST IN PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SLEET/SNOW...TO SNOW. THERE IS A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 3-4 G/KG
AND PW OF .6 TO .7 ON AN INCH) WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT WOULD BE A
WET SNOW WITH SOME WIND. DUE TO STRENGTH UNCERTAINTY HAVE QPF
AMOUNTS OF 0.05 TO 0.15 AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO 1 INCH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MUCH WARMER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S. MONDAY NIGHT...A TROF BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE WITH SOME
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD BE SLOW TO
BREAK UP THIS MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE VFR CIGS BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z...THEN MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE BACK IN. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS 15KT GUSTING TO 25KT ARE FORECAST FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
EVENING...THEN WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK TOWARD 12KT WHILE
TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER WINDS AT FL020 WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST APPROACHING 50KT...CREATING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO KOFK BEFORE
12Z BUT LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN