Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 181124
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OF THESE SUBTLE
WAVES...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND US...EXCEPT
TO THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNRISE IS LOW AS TO HOW MUCH FOG
WE WILL SEE...BUT IT DOES CONTINUE TO MOVE IN ON US FROM THE
OUTER EDGES.  CLOSE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND WEAK EASTERLY SFC
FLOW SHOULD WARRANT AT LEAST A PATCHY MENTION IN ALL AREAS THROUGH
SUNRISE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND MAKE ANY LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

STRONG 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
AIDED BY A 35-40KT LLVL JET. A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AROUND THE 301K SFC IS MAXIMIZED AND HAVE CONTINUED SMALL POPS FOR
THIS.

WE WILL HAVE A WARM START TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S. FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME
TEMPS EASILY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AHEAD OF A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAD ADVANCED NORTHWARD
ACROSS KLNK AND WERE NEAR BOTH KOMA AND KOFK AS OF 1120Z. VSBYS
UPSTREAM FROM KOMA RANGE FROM 1/4 MILE TO 7 MILES. DID NOT
MENTION ANY -DZ BUT THERE MAY BE SOME AROUND WITH THE FOG. WE
DO EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MILLER



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