Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 191153
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
553 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Busy forecast this morning, dealing with the ongoing freezing
drizzle and drizzle. This is currently covered with a winter
weather advisory for minor ice accumulations up to 1/10 of an
inch. At 4 am, the transition zone had moved south of Lincoln,
across the Omaha metro area, toward Denison, IA. DOT road reports
now showing that roads are beginning to ice over, generally in
line when temps hit about 30 and lower. Extreme southeast NE and
southwest IA remain quite balmy at 4 am, with temps in the mid 40s
to near 50. On the northern edge near the SD border, it`s likely
all snow with less than inch expected this morning. Precipitation
winds down and ends altogether by Noon, and there should be
several dry hours during the afternoon. Thus, winter weather
advisory remains in effect this morning.

The second round of precipitation develops tonight in response to
the trough moving through the central Rockies. Again, there will
be a wintry transition zone across the forecast areas from north
to south. Northeast NE should have deep enough moisture to allow
for 2 to 3" of snow north of a line from Neligh to Wayne. However,
further south, the moisture profile is not deep enough to allow
for ice crystals, and despite that, there remains a considerable
amount warm air aloft over the shallow cold dome at the surface.
Thus, expecting areas of precipitation to develop through the
evening, with freezing rain developing. Southeast NE and
southwest IA have the best chance of seeing significant icing
accumulations from one to two tenths of an inch, generally east
and south of a line from Beatrice to Red Oak, IA. In between along
the I80 area, freezing drizzle will develop, which may eventually
transition to some sleet through the night. Because of the
additional icing expected, a new winter weather advisory was
issued for most areas.

Some light snow could linger in northeast NE Tuesday morning, but
mostly, the freezing precipitation should end by 12-15z across the
remainder of the area. Nevertheless, the Tuesday morning commute
will again be very slippery. Winter weather advisory continues
until 15z for most of the area, and 18z in northeast NE.

Tuesday night and Wednesday are dry but cold.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 420 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Additional wintry precip chances Thursday, which could be snow in
the north and rain/freezing rain in the south. And a couple more
rain/snow chances both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 548 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Freezing drizzle will impact KOMA and KLNK through about 15Z then
expected to be dry until 03Z-06Z tonight as next round of freezing
rain moves into the area. KOFK will be mainly dry until towards
06Z when light snow is expected. IFR conditions expected to
prevail through 18Z with MVFR conditions after 18Z. Conditions
become IFR again after 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ012-015-017-
     018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065-066-078.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Tuesday for NEZ015-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ067-068.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for NEZ011-012-016-017.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ043-055-056.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Tuesday for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ069-079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Fobert



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