Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 291129
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
529 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

WV imagery/88D profilers revealing well defined, tight circulation
and sfc reflection centered over the ern Dakotas. Meanwhile,
regional obs showing a couple of somewhat subtle sfc
boundaries...one stretching from about NW IA to NW KS, and the other
being a secondary caa surge from SW SD to NE CO.

At present...areas of light SN over the Dakotas wrapping around the
backside of the sfc low corresponding well with pockets of 285K-295K
isentropic upglide...per RAP13. Radar trends coupled with HRRR/RAP13
output suggest activity not reaching the CWA until late this morning
with initial pcpn type RA/SN mix before turning to all SN this
evening. SN activity continues then thru Wednesday morning....then
back to a RA/SN mix in the aftn. As for accumulations...good model
agreement pcpn will pretty much be confined roughly north of a
line from Portsmouth to Elgin with total SN amounts generally half
an inch or less. It is possible though that local SN amounts may
reach an inch or so. Dry and colder then heading into this
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

ECM and GFS continue to advertise NIL active weather to contend
with along with a modest warming trend late this weekend. Come
next Monday/Monday night per the GFS...another storm
system/attendant cold front will allow for the next round of RA or
RA/SN over the CWA. However...both the ECM/CMC delay possible pcpn
mix until Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 529 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A vorticity lobe currently rotating through the western semi-
circle of the eastern Dakotas deep-layer cyclone will pivot
southeast through the mid Missouri Valley today. In response,
the low-level wind field will strengthen from the northwest,
resulting in gusty winds by late morning at all TAF sites. In
addition, the strengthening winds will encourage the southeast
advection of MVFR ceilings --observed from north-central Nebraska
into southeast South Dakota as of 11z-- into KOFK by mid to late
morning, and to the vicinity of KOMA and KLNK by this evening.
There is a low-probability chance of a rain-snow mix at KOFK from
late afternoon into early evening where a PROB30 group has been
included.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead



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