583
FXUS63 KOAX 260537
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  across northeast NE and west-central IA this afternoon into
  the overnight period. A Flood Watch remains in effect for
  rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches with localized areas up to 6
  inches.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon with
  damaging winds (60-70 mph gusts) the primary concern, though
  hail and a brief tornado can`t be ruled out.

- Hot on Saturday, with precipitation chances returning late
  Saturday night into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

This Afternoon and Tonight...

Upper level analysis this afternoon depicts a mid- to upper-level
trough over the western CONUS with ridging over the southeastern
CONUS. Between these two features, we remain predominantly in
southwesterly flow aloft. Large breaks in cloud cover across
southeast NE and southwest IA will bring afternoon highs into the
mid 80s to low 90s, a near ten degree jump from yesterday.
Temperatures remain on the cooler side in northeast NE where cloud
cover persists.

A surface front that has been stalled across the area the past few
days has lifted into northeast NE and west-central IA. This feature
coupled with an incoming mid-level disturbance is expected to bring
widespread thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon
into the overnight period. These storms will pose both a severe
weather and flooding risk. First the severe weather risk. Afternoon
destabilization is expected to bring 2000+ J/kg of SBCAPE along with
25-35 kts of bulk shear and an LLJ increasing into the evening. This
will lead to the development of a few scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon before more of an organized bowing
cluster pushes in towards the evening hours. The primary concern
will be damaging winds (60-70 mph gusts), though hail (up to 1") and
a brief tornado can`t be ruled out. SPC currently has a slight risk
(level 2 out of 5) for severe weather in the area. Severe weather
potential will diminish into the overnight period.

Gears then shift towards flooding concerns as ingredients come
together for a line of training thunderstorms across northeast NE
and west-central IA into the overnight period. This is supported by
a warm cloud depth of 3-4 km and PWAT values pushing near 2", above
the 90th percentile for sounding climatology in late June. CAM
guidance is drawing a swatch of QPF values in the 1-5" range across
northeast NE and into west-central IA, with localized areas
possibility reaching up to 6". With heavy rainfall totals expected
over an area that has already received rainfall totals in the 1 to
3" range in the past two days, a Flood Watch has been issued for
northeast NE and west-central IA this afternoon into Thursday.
Increased runoff and flooding potential will be present.

Tomorrow...

Overnight precipitation will gradually taper off through the morning
hours with afternoon highs expected in the 80s. The aforementioned
surface front will sink into the southern portion of our forecast
area as the mid-level wave departs, bringing another round of
showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening. A
few of these storms may be severe, with damaging winds (60+ mph
gusts) the primary concern. SPC has this area in a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) for severe weather.

Friday and Beyond...

The surface front will continue to shift into the weekend. Friday,
the front is expected to remain just to our south, keeping much of
the area dry with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. By Saturday,
highs will take a step up into the mid 90s with heat index values in
the 98-105 range. Precipitation chances return Saturday night into
Sunday as a mid-level disturbance pushes into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Scattered showers and storms will continue across the area
tonight and while the main band of storms should remain
southeast of OFK and northwest of OMA and LNK, occasional TSRA
and MVFR to possibly IFR conditions are still expected at all
sites, especially early in the period. Should see a transition
to mainly showers Thursday morning with some lingering MVFR
ceilings at OMA and OFK. Still expect storms to redevelop
sometime in the 17-21Z window, but OMA and LNK remain on the
far western edge, so not confident enough to include mention at
this time. Otherwise, winds could be somewhat variable overnight
with the on and off showers, but should eventually settle in at
southerly to southwesterly into mid-morning. Eventually expect a
turn to westerly and northwesterly, but speeds should remain
around 10 kts or less.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through this afternoon for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065.
IA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for IAZ043-055.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...CA