000
FXUS63 KOAX 130304
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1004 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES JUST
BEFORE 10 PM. SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE HELPED TO INTENSIFY
STORMS THERE EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH SOME REPORTS OF GOLF BALL
HAIL. SEVERE WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL IOWA WAS CANCELLED JUST BEFORE
10 PM EXPIRATION WITH A NEW WATCH ISSUED EAST OF OUR AREA. STILL
HAVE FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND A FEW SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES IN A
WATCH THROUGH 2 AM. RADAR TRENDS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS CONVECTION
SUGGEST STORMS THERE WILL STAY SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER THOSE STORMS ARE ONLY A COUNTY AWAY AND EARLIER CONVECTION
PRODUCED FAST-MOVING LEFT MOVER THAT DROPPED LARGE HAIL IN FALLS
CITY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN WATCH AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES MAY BE A DIFFERENT
STORY AS STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND LIKELIHOOD OF REDEVELOPMENT TO
THE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS WANING. WILL RE-EVALUATE
THIS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS AND OVERRIDES SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. WOULD
EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO START LIGHTING UP NEAR OR AFTER 4 AM ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND EXPAND NORTH THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/TYPE SUNDAY
PRIMARY CONCERN IN SHORT TERM.

WEAK WIND SHIFT/FRONT CONTINUED TO PRESS SEWD INTO THE AFTN
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HARLAN IA TO A LITTLE SE OF OLU AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH BETTER SFC COOLING LAGGED WELL TO THE NORTH. MOST
OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF WIND SHIFT HAS HAD ENOUGH OF A SW
COMPONENT TO WIND THAT IT HAD COMBINED WITH MIXING TO LOWER MANY
SFC DWPTS INTO MID 50S OR LOWER...MAIN EXCEPTION THROUGH 20Z FROM
SE CORNER OF NEBR INTO SW IA. THIS HAS HELPED KEEP MIXED LAYER CIN
VALUES STILL FAIRLY HIGH WITH IT WEAKENING IN CNTRL IA TOWARD NEBR
CITY PER SPC MESO PAGE. THUS...WOULD EXPECT FIRST OR AT LEAST
HIGHEST CONVECTION CHANCES WOULD BE IN IA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET
WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER THAN 18Z RAP AND ALSO 12Z 4KM WRF.
WITH DECENT...ALTHOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH...DEEP SHEAR AND ML
CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2K J/KG....CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND RISK EARLY PROBABLY SHIFTING MORE
TOWARD WIND THREAT THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
SW THIS EVENING OR NORTH OF BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT LESS
CERTAIN WITH SOME HINTS BY TWO ABOVE SHORTER TERM MODELS
INDICATING A LULL LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD OR NORTH OF OMAHA/LINCOLN BY 12Z. NE NEBR
COULD REMAIN DRY ALL NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO MID/LATE SUN MORNING
PER NAM...BUT INTRODUCED MODEST POPS TOWARD 12Z INCREASING INTO
CATEGORICAL MOST/ALL AREAS THEN TOWARD MIDDAY.

NAM HAD BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON COOLING AIRMASS AS PRECIP FELL NRN
ZONES...EXCEPT FAR NW...AND 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED THAT MUCH
OF THE PRECIP COULD REMAIN LIQUID MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...KEPT
A R/S MIX IN ACROSS NERN NEBR. SOME CONVECTIVE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE SERN ZONES INTO AT LEAST MIDDAY AS H85 BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR SERN NEBR AND WOULD SUSPECT BEST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES
WOULD FOCUS TOWARD THAT AREA DUE TO LOW/MID LVL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. HOWEVER...SOME HINT AT A MID LVL FRONTO BAND OF PRECIP
SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTH THUS AS MENTIONED ABOVE CATEGORICAL
POPS WERE MAINTAINED/INCLUDED ALL AREAS AT LEAST SOME POINT IN THE
DAY. MOST TEMPS STEADY/FALLING BUT IF PRECIP WOULD STAY OUT OF
SERN ZONES UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDDAY COULD SEE A FUTURE NEED FOR A
SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP THERE. WINDS OVER N AND W WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY WARRANT AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL CONVECTIVE THREAT/PRECIP TRENDS BEFORE THAT PASS
FIRST.

KEPT RAIN/SNOW MIX W/SNOW ON NW FRINGE MENTION IN FORECAST SUN
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH...ALTHOUGH NOT A CERTAINTY AS GFS
ENDS BULK OF PRECIP MOST AREAS AS SOUNDINGS BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW. WITH SOME WIND/CLOUDS PERSISTING...KEPT LOWS ON OR
ABOVE WARMER GUID VALUES SUN NIGHT. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY HOLDING
BACK INTO MONDAY...DID UP POPS A LITTLE SERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FORECAST LOOKS DRY THEN INTO TUE AND WITH INCREASED MIXING ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

KEPT SLGT CHANCE POPS IN WED AFTN FAR NRN ZONES AS 12Z GFS/ECM
BROUGHT NEXT FRONT/TROUGH INTO THAT REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
READINGS SHOULD REBOUND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND IF TRENDS
PERSIST...COULD SEE A NEED FOR FURTHER RAISING IN LATER FORECASTS.

UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE IN THU/FRI PERIOD AS GFS CLOSES OF A COLD
UPPER TROUGH LOOKING DOWNRIGHT NASTY THU NIGHT NERN NEBR. WHILE
ECMWF WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE...IT TOO TRENDED COLDER. THUS WOULD
THINK SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION WAS STILL WARRANTED WED NGT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT NWRN ZONES AND EVEN EXTENDED MENTION INTO THU
MORNING. COULD FORESEE THIS THREAT BEING SHIFTED SE IF COLD
TRENDS WOULD CONTINUE.

SATURDAY DOES APPEAR A RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND POPS WERE MENTIONED PER MODEL BLEND.
HOWEVER...MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THURSDAY AND BEYOND PERIODS LEAD
TO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING SHOULD STAY EAST OF
KLNK AND KOMA TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH WILL TURN
WINDS TO THE NORTH AT ALL SITES DURING THE EVENING. THEN AS A LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN STORMS LIKELY. NORTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...AVERAGING 20 TO 35KT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DERGAN
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DERGAN