000
FXUS63 KOAX 130801
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

VW IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH A CUT OFF LOW SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE SFC TROF
EXTENDED FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO ERN KS WITH A SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID MS VLY.

MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WRN CONUS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY AMPLIFY
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY WITH A PAC NW SHORTWAVE TROF RUSHING DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. MODELS GENERATING
QPF ALONG AXIS OF MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
MIDWEST BACKDOOR FRONT. THE CMC AND ECM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PCPN ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM IS FOCUSED
FARTHER SOUTH. SMALL POPS ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT HAVE OPTED MAKE A
CHANGE WITH RA DURING EVENING HOURS AND RASN MIX AFT MIDNIGHT.
REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

MAIN ISSUE REMAINS POSSIBLE PCPN MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THRU. GFS AND ECM QPF FIELDS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE WILL BE
FOUND OVER NRN/ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE THE CMC IS WAY OUT
ON ITS OWN LAYING QPF FROM ERN WY TO ERN KS. SMALL POPS ARE ALREADY
IN PLACE AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES GIVEN GFS ECM ARE
SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE
ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS INCREASES. THE
COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH A FAVORABLE
WIND DIRECTION TO ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING TODAY. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 750 MB IN THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE WAY TO HIGH WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. WE PREFER VALUES CLOSER TO THE RAP/HRRR/HIGH RES WRF RUNS.
GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING WE SHOULD SEE DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE
LOWER 20S BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS FOR OLU/LNK/BIE AREAS.
THIS ALONG WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 YIELDS AFTERNOON RH VALUES <20% FOR
AT LEAST 3 HOURS. THE WINDS ARE MARGINAL...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO VALUES CLOSE
TO 25 MPH. THUS WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WRNG FOR THE WRN
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ016-030-031-042-043-050-065-066-078-088>090-
     092.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
FIRE WEATHER...BOUSTEAD