Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 290436
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MORNING MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING EVOLUTION
OF GREAT BASIN LOW AND SFC REFLECTION LIFTING OUT OF HIGH PLAINS
INTO S-CNTRL CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEGINNING
MONDAY...VORT MAX AT BASE OF CLOSED CIRCULATION GETS EJECTED ON
MONDAY AND INTENSIFIES AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING. BY 12Z TUES...SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED
OVER WRN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO IA/IL ALONG WITH A
STEADY INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. INITIATION OF PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OUT WEST WITHIN DEEP LYR AGEOSTROPHIC
LIFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...VIA POTENT VORT MAX...WILL
ENHANCE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH ASCENT GRADUALLY SPREADING OVER
THE CWA TUES/TUES NIGHT. WED/WED NIGHT...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT TO
HELP GRADUALLY PUSH CONCENTRATION OF MOIST/FORCING EAST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

DRY THEN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODELS DEVELOP A
DEEP/BROAD LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS IT
INTO THE ERN CONUS NEXT SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS...NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SURGE SWD INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE CAA BEING REALIZED FRI OVER THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NERN NEBR TONIGHT
BUT CHANCES STILL APPEARED TO LOW TO MENTION IN KOFK TAF.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/06Z WITH MAINLY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY...WITH CIGS AROUND OR
BELOW FL010 BEHIND IT...EXTENDED FROM NCNTRL NEBR INTO ERN SD.
THIS FRONT SHOULD RMN TO THE NORTH OF KOFK THROUGH 30/06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK


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