Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 271852
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
152 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

SURFACE LOW REMAINS PARKED IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WEST
SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS AT 18Z. SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED
WITH BOUNDARIES NOTED ON KOAX RADAR SHOW THE OCCLUSION POINT WAS
BETWEEN LINCOLN AND WAHOO. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS OF HRRR...
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AS NSSL 4KM SUGGEST MINI SUPER CELL STORMS WILL
DEVELOP FROM NEAR FREMONT EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
THESE WOULD BE LOW TOPPED STORMS. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE TRIPLE
POINT WHERE SOME ROTATION MAY BE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF OUR
OFFICE. SURFACE BASED CAPE IS 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR.
0-3KM CAPE IS 100-125 J/KG...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WE
COORDINATED WITH SPC EARLIER IN THE DAY TO PULL THE SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AND ALSO BRING 2 PERCENT TORNADO
PROBABILITIES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF STORMS
OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AS THESE STORMS SHIFT
NORTH. FREEZING LEVEL IS LOW...AROUND 8000 FEET. THUS 50DBZ
HEIGHTS WOULD BE QUITE LOW FOR HAIL...WHICH COULD BE 1 TO 1.5
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ELONGATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO TO THE
BASE IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE
SYSTEM THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC LOW AT 08Z LOCATED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY...THE
COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TIGHTEN UP AND SHIFT NORTHEAST...SLIGHTLY
BEHIND THE SFC LOW. INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR
WHAT COULD BE A CLASSIC MINI-SUPERCELL EVENT. THE TRIPLE POINT
BY 18-21Z IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA. LATEST CAM`S SHOW DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY
SPREAD THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST AS BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW
MOVE INTO E/NE EVENING. COOLER AIR...WITH EVEN A FEW HINTS OF 0C
850MB TEMPS...WRAP INTO THIS LOW TONIGHT WITH DEFORMATION BAND
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WILL BE A CHILLY WET NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

UPPER LOW EXITS EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON ENDING ANY
REMAINING PCPN CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DROPS INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
LOWS COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO LOWER 40S
IN OUR SOUTH. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE ROUNDING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PCPN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING
AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LOW. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ALSO WILL BE INCREASING IN WAA ZONE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY ON THE HORIZON FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT KOMA/KOFK FROM 19-21Z AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ARC NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...IT`S
MOSTLY MVFR INITIALLY...BUT PROBABLY BECOMING IFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ALSO A COMPLICATED WIND FORECAST AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD



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