Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 062336
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
636 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AT 19Z. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CU DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO FAR BUT NOTABLY DRIER AIR
BEHIND IT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S. CONVERGENCE RATHER
WEAK AS FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING
ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER THIS EVENING AND WASHING OUT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CARRIED SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE
AREA FOR TONIGHT WHERE RAP MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL BUT ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED IT STORMS DO DEVELOP.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO PUSH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN EXISTS FOR THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREA MONDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON
ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS STORMS TAKE ON A WEST-EAST
ORIENTATION JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS HUMIDITY AROUND AS FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

MOISTURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION. SERIES OF ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DURING THE PERIOD INDICATED BY MODELS AS RIDGE
BUILDS AGAIN IN THE WEST WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS FOR
THE AREA PRIMARILY DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS MID SUMMER PATTERN
TAKES SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

CONSIDERATIONS FOR TONIGHT WOULD BE ANY STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT
AND FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/
APPEAR TO BE KEEPING ANY DEVELOPMENT AT BAY WITH THE WINDSHIFT
MOVING THROUGH KOMA/KLNK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE FRONT
SLOWS DOWN IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. CONSIDERED FOG WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LACK OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE LARGE ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE...HOWEVER WILL RE-
EVALUATE WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. MONDAY AFTERNOON...A
SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH
SOUTH...MEANWHILE...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH
AND STRENGTHEN. FOR NOW ONLY MENTIONED A PROB30 AT KOFK. WILL RE-
EVALUATE FOR KLNK/KOMA WHEN EVENING DATA IS IN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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