Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 211727
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1127 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

After a warm start to the period, pattern will begin a transition
toward more seasonal conditions by Thursday.

Strong near zonal flow aloft will continue to pump warm air into
the region through Wednesday before an upper trough digs into the
western CONUS on Thursday.

Very warm and dry conditions will be the main focus today and
Wednesday providing the potential for elevated fire weather
concerns across the area. A Red Flag warning will be in effect for
western parts of the forecast area this afternoon where low
humidity and gusty winds are expected. Similar conditions are
possible again on Wednesday for western parts of the area.

Surface cyclogenesis develops over eastern Colorado western
Kansas by Thursday morning with strong baroclinic zone near the
southern Nebraska border by afternoon. A mix of rain and snow
develops during the day and expands across Nebraska by late
Thursday afternoon as the upper trough moves into the region. Most
of the area will be in the warm sector through the day although a
part of northeast Nebraska may see the rain change to snow by
late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

A return to winter conditions will occur across the area Thursday
night into Friday as the surface low pressure lifts from northeast
Kansas toward northeast Iowa. The low will pull a strong cold
front south of the area by Friday morning with snow spreading
south across the forecast area. Latest indications are for a band
of snow to develop across northeast Nebraska Thursday night into
Friday morning with amounts ranging from 3 to 6 inches in the
north half of the area and from 3 inches to less than an inch in
the south by Friday afternoon. Colder temperatures then look to
hang over the area through Saturday before a warming trend
returns by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Southwest wind 15-23 knots at KOFK through about 23z. Southwest
winds at KLNK/KOMA 11-13 knots through about 23z. Otherwise VFR
conditions through the period, with winds eventually becoming
westerly and eventually northwesterly at KOFK toward the end of
the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>033-042>044-050-051-065.

IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...DeWald



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