Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 242325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

THE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTNDD FM CNTRL SD INTO ERN NEB. THIS WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS DEVELOPING INTO MN/IA/MO OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT
WINDS. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF NE NEB AND SW IA WHERE LOWER TO
MID 40S ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER QUIET AND SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY BEFORE RETURN FLOW STARTS FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A BIT
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

MOST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
START TO AMPLIFY TOWARD MID WEEK WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TOPPING
THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WAA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING OVER MAINLY ERN NEB BUT MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE FAIRLY
LIMITED. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARRIVE DURING THE AFTN ON THU
AS THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS
TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CAT IN
THE NW CWA ON THU AFTN...BUT WE HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA ON THU NIGHT AND
EXITING THE AREA ON FRI. WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS ON THU
NIGHT WITH THE BEST Q-G FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVG THROUGH WITH POPS
DECREASING NW TO SE DURING THE DAY ON FRI. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OVER THE WEST AND EXPAND EWD OVER THE PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEE


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