Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 250745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
245 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Cold front was making steady progress through the forecast area,
located from about Sioux City, IA southwestward to Hebron, NE at
07z. Scattered showers ahead of the front will continue to shift
east this morning. The back edge of this could still be affecting
extreme southeast NE and southwest IA 6-7 am, then dry for the
remainder of the day. Then the upper trough moves through the area
this afternoon. There is a band of lower clouds 2500-5000 feet
across the western half of South Dakota that will move into the
forecast area today. Will see substantial clearing behind the
front early this morning, then see clouds increase again as moisture
moves in from the north. It will be significantly cooler than
yesterday with highs 68-71 and breezy northwesterly conditions.

The remainder of the short term will be dry and quiet with high
pressure prevailing. This should result in clear conditions, with
night lows in the 40s, daytime highs around 70 Monday and lower to
mid to upper 70s on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

Quiet and dry weather continues early in the extended period as an
upper level ridge builds across the Rockies while the upper closed
trough across the Great Lakes spins and drifts south toward the
lower Ohio Valley. Model differences really begin to develop by
Thursday and beyond with the GFS being more progressive versus the
slower ECMWF or GEFS mean. This will have dramatic impacts on
eventual forecast for our area, as the next chance of rain moving
out of the Rockies depends on the forward speed of the low. For
now, have tried to blend the foreword speed of the system to our
east, which slows down the arrival of precip chances until Friday,
but if the EC verifies, precip may not arrive until Saturday or
Sunday. Thus confidence is quite low Friday and beyond.


Issued at 1142 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

KOFK is behind the rain and soon will be post-frontal, and VFR
conditions are expected. Rain will affect KOMA/KLNK for the next
couple of hours, along with the potential for at least brief MVFR
visibility and MVFR to IFR ceilings. Decreasing clouds will follow
through the morning. Wind shift will reach KOMA/KLNK before
daybreak, with winds becoming increasingly gusty at all sites by
late morning to midday.


.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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