Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 281115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB...A JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KNOTS WAS NOTED
OVER IL. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB
WHICH HAD 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF AROUND 80 METERS OVER SERN MI.
A RIDGE AT 500 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND UP INTO CANADA.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ONLY UNDERGO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB HEIGHTS LOCALLY START OUT AROUND 5850-5880 METERS
TODAY...FALL ABOUT 30 METERS TUESDAY AND FALL JUST A BIT MORE
WEDNESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...INCREASE A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WITH MIXING
IS THAT HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALL
THREE DAYS.

TODAY...THERE IS SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN ACROSS WRN IA. IR STLT
LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
ERN SD AND THE NERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. CLOUD BASES WERE MAINLY
3000 TO 6000 FEET AGL. MODELS INDICATE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP SWD TODAY...MAINLY AFFECTING WRN IA. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING WITH HEATING
TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME MINOR BUILDUPS. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE VERY SMALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS INDICATED
MAINLY FROM PARTS OF MN INTO NERN IA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ALSO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
BIT BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THIS IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME LIGHT PCPN DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OFF
TO OUR WEST FROM SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SHOWERS IN
LATER FORECASTS.

THE 00Z NAM IS THE ODD MODEL OUT COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AND SEEMS OVERDONE WITH PCPN DEVELOPMENT
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN OUR AREA. THE GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF ARE DRY...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT 14 OR LESS FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

PCPN CHANCES LOOK SMALL IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE...
BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO EXPAND A BIT INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A SMALL
CHANCE OF PCPN MAY BE NEEDED AROUND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



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