Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 131715
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1115 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

A weak vorticity lobe and associated area of showery precipitation
(most of which is sublimating before reaching the ground) was
moving through the mid-MO Valley early this morning, downstream
from a prominent upper low situated over the Sierra-Nevada Range.
Decreasing clouds and veering low-level winds with the passage of
the short-wave trough to the east should allow afternoon
temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 30s across much of the
area with some lower 40s possible near the KS border.

West-southwest deep-layer flow will become established over the
central Plains on Wednesday, with downslope-enhanced warming
boosting temperatures into the mid 40s to lower 50s, despite
lingering snow cover. These warmer temperatures combined with an
increase in boundary-layer dewpoints could yield the development
of patchy fog Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We will not
include a mention in the forecast at this point, but it`s something
worth monitoring.

On Thursday, a polar-branch short-wave trough will traverse the
Canadian Prairie Provinces and north-central States, promoting the
advance of a cold front through the region Thursday afternoon and
evening. Winds will increase markedly from the northwest with the
passage of the front with some flurries possible on Thursday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

The intrusion of cold continental air behind Thursday`s frontal
passage will largely be confined to Friday where highs will remain
in the 20s. By this weekend, it appears that a warmer air mass
will overspread the mid-MO Valley ahead of a surface low and
associated cold front which will approach the area from the west.
Currently, we will indicate highs in the 40s on both days.

By early next week, medium-range model guidance begins to diverge
on the handling of the mid-level pattern. Both the ECMWF and GEFS
mean suggest substantial troughing over the southwestern U.S.,
while the GFS and Canadian models indicate a broader, but lower
amplitude trough from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Lakes.
Despite these differences aloft, there is model consensus that a
colder air mass will become established over the region with some
light snow potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southerly winds
could gust for a few hours early this afternoon. Otherwise expect
a few high clouds across the area today and tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...KG



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