Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 212317
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
617 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Models are advertising a rather progressive pattern over the next
several days with ern conus trof quickly shifting east while
upstream Pac NW trof pushes inland by mid-week and treks along the
U.S./Can border. This wave will be responsible for dragging the
next cold front into the central plains. Thrust of llvl theta-E
advection begins in earnest Monday night and continues through the
day on Tuesday. NAM/GFS/ECM seem to be in decent agreement showing
elongated surface low pressure extending from the ern Dakotas to wrn
KS with pcpn activity developing Tuesday afternoon just south of the
CWA in response to increasing DPVA and mid layer WAA working in
concert. The NAM though deviates from the GFS/ECM/CMC at this point
by showing pcpn pretty much remaining south of the CWA while
GFS/ECM/CMC shows TSRA expanding nwd into the CWA Tuesday night just
ahead of the cold front approaching the nrn CWA. Believe that the
potential for heavy rainfall is high over the nrn CWA...but not as
much as what the GFS is suggesting/convective feedback. At any
rate...cold frontal boundary is progged to drift swd on
Wednesday/Wednesday night...thus best chance for pcpn south of
I-80 corridor.

As for temps....cold front will bring below normal max temps with
a gradual downward trend going from highs in the upper 80s on Monday
to upper 70s/low 80s on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 315 PM CDT
SUN AUG 21 2016

GFS/ECM/CMC in good agreement relatively cool conditions will
prevail through the extended periods over the region with max temps
generally in the mid/upper 70s. Next round of pcpn appears possible
late Friday through into Saturday night. However...latest GFS and
ECM are showing some discrepancies with QPF timing/placement. Going
fcst has small pops in place...and given low confidence see little
reason to make any changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 617 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.  A
southwesterly LLJ will strengthen tonight over the central Plains
with LLWS criteria likely being met at KOFK in the 22/06-12z time
frame. Otherwise, a deepening lee trough over the High Plains will
yield gusty south winds at all three TAF sites by mid to late
morning. Some high-level cloudiness is possible tomorrow, mainly
at KOMA and KLNK.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead



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