000
FXUS63 KOAX 212345
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
645 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Outflow boundary from early morning convection near the South
Dakota border into northwest Iowa had pushed to just south of the
Omaha metro area by late morning before stalling. 19Z surface
observations showed that the boundary was in the process of
working its way back north as a warm front early this afternoon with
winds becoming southerly and increasing across the area.

Although plenty of moisture and instability are in place this
afternoon, short range CAM models show limited forcing and
meager convection for the area through the late afternoon with
forecast soundings showing good mid level cap across the area.
Latest indications are for convection to initiate over central
Nebraska in the vicinity of the surface trough then try to work
east during the evening. Surface front and trough have limited
push and are expected to stall later tonight from northeast into
southwest Nebraska. Majority of the convection will become
elevated in nature during the evening into northeast Nebraska with
forecast soundings maintaining a strong cap over southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa into Thursday morning. Have kept PoPs
on the low side for most of the area tonight because of the
limitations mentioned.

Thursday looks to be dry for most of the area during the day
before frontal boundary begins to accelerate southeast during the
afternoon and evening as mid level trough moves into the northern
plains. Scattered convection will be likely in the vicinity of the
front as it moves across the area and into Missouri and Kansas
late Thursday night.

Dry and mild then for Friday and Friday night as high pressure
moves into the area behind the front. Another chance of showers
and thunderstorms arrives for mainly southern parts of the area
on Satuturday as secondary short wave moves into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Generally cool and dry Saturday night through Monday as area
remains under broad cyclonic flow associated with Great Lakes
upper trough. Trend toward warmer temperatures and periodic
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday as upper
trough shifts east with warm advection and return flow developing
over the plains region along with strong zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

VFR conditions are indicated through the TAF cycle, with
unrestricted visibility and mid- to cirrus-level ceilings. Think
threat of showers/storms this evening has diminished to be too
low to mention at all sites, and confidence isn`t high enough yet
to include for tomorrow, though potential exists around the time
of the cold front moving through. For now, have focused on wind
shear tonight and wind shift tomorrow with cold front passing
through the sites.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mayes