Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 281113
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWING STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED TSRA CONTINUE MAINLY FROM NORTH OF KOMA TO NORTHWEST OF
KLNK. ACTIVITY MAY HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING
AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATER AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE TSRA FOR
LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL JUST HAVE A PROB GROUP FOR -SHRA. FORECASTS
WILL NEED ADJUSTMENT LATER AS THINGS EVOLVE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AT KOFK BY AROUND MID DAY AND THEN FOR KOMA AND KLNK BY
EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER


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