000
FXUS63 KOAX 040517
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1117 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK SE ACROSS TAF SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH CIGS INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IFR...THEY COULD OCCASIONALLY BE A BIT HIGHER. VSBYS COULD
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 3SM AT KOMA ABSENT ANY PRECIP AS THAT LOCATION
REMAINS ON BATTLEGROUND BETWEEN SLIGHTLY DRIER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR OVER CNTRL NEBR AND MOISTER AIR WORKING SSW OVER IA. LATER
TONIGHT LIGHT PRECIP COULD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. EVEN A PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK
WED AM AS COLDER AIR BECOMES DEEPER...BUT PERIOD APPEARED BRIEF
AND AMOUNT/OCCURRENCE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
CHANCES OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW STILL APPEARED HIGH ENOUGH AT
KOFK TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT.

CHERMOK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 916 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD SOUTHEAST 1/2 OR SO
TNGT AND ALSO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR IS HAVING MORE SUCCESS DROPPING SOUTH THAN SOUTHEAST AND
COLDEST TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY STAY TO OUR N THROUGH WEST. THUS
BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FAR E AND SE. ALSO FIRST BATCH
OF RADAR RETURNS HAVE ENDED OVER NERN NEBR AND SHORT TERM MODELS
SUGGEST MEASURABLE MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  THUS REDUCED POPS NERN ZONES THIS EVENING BUT
INCREASED LATER TONIGHT. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY TOWARD LNK
AND OMAHA...AND AS COLD AIR DEEPENS...IF PRECIP CONTINUES...SOME
SLEET/SNOW PELLETS POSSIBLE AS WELL. JUST LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MENTION FOR NOW AS MEASURABLE DID NOT APPEAR TOO LIKELY
YET.

CHERMOK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

DISCUSSION...

LATEST OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE....SPECIFICALLY JUST EAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS
AS OF 21Z. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRANSLATES THIS FEATURE ALONG
THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO EASTERN IOWA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN COLD AIR DROPPING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS COLD AIR
DIPS SOUTH...MID LEVEL FORCING CO-LOCATED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL GENERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF
KNOX/CEDAR/ANTELOPE/PIERCE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION...THE BETTER FORCING AND HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO VERIFY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOISTURE TRACK DECIDED TO UP SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT FOR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS KNOX
COUNTY...AND A HALF INCH TO 1 INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TRANSITIONS BELOW FREEZING SOME
ICE PELLETS/SLEET ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS HAS BEEN ALREADY REPORTED
AT WAYNE. OPTED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS
PROFILES SUGGEST ITS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR. FURTHER SOUTH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MEAGER AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COUNTIES IT APPEARS FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MORE LIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AND ICE IN THE CLOUD. THIS
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER THROUGH RUSH HOUR AND POSSIBLY LATER
IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT ENOUGH
TO END ANY DRIZZLE CONCERNS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THOUGH
VERY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT THE TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FLIRT WITH ZERO EACH
NIGHT. BY FRIDAY GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WINTER STORM OVER
KANSAS AND MISSOURI...FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF
NEBRASKA AND IOWA.

PEARSON

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE REGION COLD THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND A SERIES OF
LITTLE IMPULSES TO THE AREA AND WILL PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO DURING THIS TIME.

BETTER FORCING COMES INTO PLAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS FORCING
FROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO. IN
ADDITION...THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 150KT 300 MB JET WILL BE PASSING
OVERHEAD PROVIDING STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. WE CURRENTLY HAVE CHANCE
POPS GOING AND THAT MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP WITH LATER FORECAST IF
THE FORCING IS STILL LOOKING STRONG. A VERY STRONG COLD PUSH WILL
SINK INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH PROGGED
850MB TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM -20C TO -25C.

KERN

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$