000
FXUS63 KOAX 180432
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI BY 00Z. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED IN FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE CWA.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
SHORTWAVE TO TEH SOUTH OVER MO/KS/OK/TX...WITH ASSOCIATED 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 30M.  SPLIT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL JET IN THE WESTERN
US CONVERGED OVER IA...WITH STRONGER JET ENERGY FROM IA TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.  HIGHER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WERE
FOCUSED WELL WEST...FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES.
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
850MB...WITH AN OUTLIER OF 12C DEWPOINT AT KTOP WHILE 8C+ DEWPOINTS
OTHERWISE WERE FOCUSED FROM TX TO AR/TN.  850MB THERMAL RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM NV/AZ NORTHWARD TO WA/OR/ID.  SURFACE RIDGE AT 19Z
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ND THROUGH SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB...THEN ON
TO CENTRAL KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY BENIGN
WEATHER IN THE INTERIM.  TSRA ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
WESTERN NEB AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WILL
REMAIN OUTSIDE THE CWA.  HOWEVER...MODELS DO HINT AT A SHORTWAVE
SLIDING ACROSS IA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LIFT AND PRECIP OVER
NORTHEAST NEB.  HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION JUST BRIEFLY
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE THINKING THAT HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE WOULD
RETURN QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AND QUASH THE ACTIVITY.  REMAINDER OF
TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET...UNLESS THAT ACTIVITY FESTERS INTO THE
MORNING LONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST IN WESTERN/NORTHWEST CWA.
REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET UNDER UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING.

SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS SD/NEB ON
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...THINK CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE CWA NEAR THE
DRYLINE AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...AND HAVE PLAYED
TOWARD LESS MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PEAK OF ACTIVITY WOULD
LIKELY BE IN THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEB INTO
WESTERN IA...WITH STORMS EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL JET VEERS SLIGHTLY. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET RETREATING TO THE
WEST...POST- CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION...AND INCREASING 700MB
TEMPS...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THURSDAY DAYTIME. WITH LESS
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ALSO HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH GRIDS ARE STILL COOLER THAN MEX.

MAYES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING
THIS PERIOD LEADING TO HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MID 20S FOR FRI AND SAT AND THIS SHOULD YIELD
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS. WITH DEW POINTS ALSO
ON THE RISE THIS WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100. THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WRN US TROUGH WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR FA THROUGH AT LEAST SAT LEAVING THE CWA
DRY. SOME NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAY BRUSH
EXTREME NE NEB ON FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...BUT 700 MB
TEMPERATURES OF +16 SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING TOO FAR
SOUTH. AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER ON SUN INTO MON WE MAY SEE
THIS BOUNDARY DROP INTO THE FA ALLOWING FOR SOME CHANCE OF
CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME CHC POPS.

BOUSTEAD

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOBERT