Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 282126
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ENDING SNOW TONIGHT THEN MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY...WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WAS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR LOOPS MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA...AND WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WERE STILL RUNNING LOWER THAN WAS
THINKING YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING
ON NORTHERN FRINGE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 30 IN NEBRASKA AND
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA. SHORT RANGE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND PUSH MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW OUT OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
MEANWHILE NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WAS NOTED IN NORTHERN STREAM AFTER
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUS WILL KEEP
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
NEBRASKA.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW THESE SHORTWAVES LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY. BUT
CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING...ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPS TO NEAR
FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING
IN THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE
AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...TRIGGERING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ATTENDANT MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD SPARK LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MONDAY. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT...WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION POINTING RIGHT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY START OUT AS DRIZZLE MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF OUR
AREA...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING FROM THE
OMAHA AREA SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE
NOSE OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR OFF THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING RAIN IN OUR
SOUTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 BEFORE TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARD.

FARTHER NORTH...BAROCLINICITY WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE FROM THE NORTH. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP 12Z
TUESDAY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND THUS A LARGE ZONE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TIME TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT
SHOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT THINKING PLACES SOME ICING POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...WITH BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA GENERALLY FROM ALBION TO ONAWA AND
NORTH. WHEN FRONT BEGINS ITS TREK SOUTH...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
TO SNOW...BUT DURATION OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT THOSE AMOUNTS TO AN INCH
OR SO ALONG I-80 WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION SOUTH BEFORE ENDING
TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO END TUESDAY EVENING ALL
AREAS...THEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR A DAY OR TWO WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN WEAKLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGHS COULD EVEN TOUCH 50 IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY AS AN AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST. FOR KOFK...EXPECT NOTHING MORE
THAN FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES VARIABLE BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR KOMA...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE SITE AND SHOULD PERSIST...ALBIET LIGHT...THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING VISIBILTIIES DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL
AS CEILING HEIGHTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER DARK.
FOR KLNK...SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE WITH AN INCH OR
SO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER DARK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN


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