000
FXUS63 KOAX 260006
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
706 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

The Heat Advisory was allowed to expire at 7 PM CDT. Temperatures
will continue to slowly cool through the rest of the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A mid to upper-level low over Manitoba will continue east into
eastern Canada while a series of lower-latitude impulses track
from the eastern Great Basin into the mid MO Valley late tonight
into Wednesday. In the low levels, a boundary stretching from the
ND-MN Red River Valley through south-central SD into wrn NE will
serve as the focus for strong to severe storms this afternoon into
evening. The nocturnal strengthening of a LLJ coupled with
increased forcing for ascent attendant to a lead impulse emerging
from the Rockies will sustain thunderstorms overnight, a subset
of which are forecast to move across the area through 12z/Wednesday.
Strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will accompany the
most intense storms, though the nocturnal maximum in stability
will preclude the potential for an organized severe weather
threat.

Latest model guidances hints at a relative lull in convective
development from mid morning into early afternoon Wednesday with
an uptick in storm coverage and intensity along the southward-
moving cool front by mid afternoon. The extent and longevity of
the early-day storms will impact the degree of air mass
destabilization, as well as the location of the effective surface
boundary with the greatest risk for a few severe storms being
across southeast NE and southwest IA from mid afternoon into early
evening. Corridors of heavy rainfall (i.e. two to three inch
storm-total amounts) are possible, the locations of which will
likely be modulated by mesoscale features.

A surface high will build into the area Thursday and Friday,
yielding a cooler and drier low-level air mass.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Medium-range guidance continues to advertise the re-
intensification of a long-wave ridge over western North America
during the long-term period with downstream troughing from Hudson
Bay to the Gulf Coast. Weak mid-level perturbations embedded in
northwest flow aloft will foster small chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Otherwise, it appears temperatures will remain
relatively mild with daytime highs near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Expect SHRA and TSRA to move into northeast NE toward KOFK after
06z and then toward KLNK and KOMA toward 12Z. Ceilings currently
expected to be mostly 4000 feet or above, but in the heavier
precipitation ceilings could drop to MVFR. Confidence on the MVFR
conditions not high, so will leave it out for now and add to later
forecasts if needed. Winds will shift to north as the cold front
passes.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KG
SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Miller