Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 022032
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUED OVER THE CNTRL US. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY WAS DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
OK/TX WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD/WRN NEB.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THIS WAVE WAS
NOW ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST NEB. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER SRN ALBERTA/ERN WA. THE 20Z SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL NEB ASSOCIATED WITH THE NE
NEB SHORTWAVE. THIS WAS ALONG A SFC TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE NE NEB
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND DROPPING THEM SWD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER AT
LEAST THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED SCT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. AS WE GET LATER IN THE EVENING THE SHOWERS
SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR
THE KS/NEB BORDER. AS THE SFC LOW DROPS SWD OVERNIGHT WE WILL SEE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND IT AND ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO
GO NEARLY CALM IN THE NORTHERN FA...AND WITH SOME CLEARING AND
RECENT RAINFALL WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AND WE HAVE INCLUDED
THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

WILL LEAVE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST DRY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT OVERLY GREAT. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTERNOON...BUT STABILITY IS
PRETTY HIGH AS MOISTURE IS FAIRLY MEAGER FOR JULY STANDARDS...AND
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SUBSTANDARD. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO
SHOWER...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CWA...BUT CHANCES APPEAR BELOW
SCHC ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH FRI
AND THE 4TH OF JULY. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO TSRA ON SUN NIGHT
OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST NEB...BUT MOST OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY AND
WARMER AS SOUTHERN WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT SLOWLY
THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND WILL
CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ON MON NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR TUE AND WED
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED THUNDER WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH KLNK TO
START WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME MORE SPOTTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE CIGS AND DECREASE RAIN MENTION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK IN BEHIND SHORTWAVES...THUS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FOG/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FILL
IN TONIGHT THEN BREAK UP FRIDAY MORNING


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY


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