Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 181623
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1123 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Single-digit wind chills for some during the morning commute
  and trip to school.

- Very high fire danger over northeast Nebraska this afternoon,
  and from northeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Temperatures warm back into the 60s by Tuesday before trending
  cooler again.

- A more active weather pattern develops later this week with
  precipitation chances from Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Today:

Surface high pressure situated over western parts of SD and NE
early this morning will build south through the area today ahead
of a front moving into the northern High Plains. IR satellite
indicates a shield of stratocumulus clouds from southeast SD
into portions of northeast NE and northwest IA. Those clouds are
slowly moving south and could linger across portions of the
area this morning before mixing out. A snowflake or two is even
possible. Otherwise, the main story this morning is the cold
wind chills, which will be in the single digits at many
locations during the morning commute and trip to school.

Clouds will diminish by this afternoon with temperatures warming
into the 40s. The air mass will remain quite dry, leading to
very high fire danger in northeast NE. However, winds will be
relatively light, which will limit the fire-spread potential
given ignition.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

The above-mentioned, northern High Plains front is forecast to
move through the area Tuesday morning. Northwest, downsloping
winds in the wake of the boundary will support warmer
temperatures with highs in the 60s. The strongest winds of 15
to 20 mph with gusts of 25 mph are expected to develop from
northeast NE into southwest IA Tuesday afternoon with very high
fire danger forecast in those areas.

Somewhat of a backdoor cold front is expected to push into the
area on Wednesday with afternoon temperatures falling back into
the 40s to low 50s.

Thursday and Friday:

The 18/00z global models suggest that a low-amplitude
disturbance will track through the northern Plains Thursday with
an associated surface low advancing through the mid-MO Valley.
Strengthening warm advection ahead of the midlevel wave and
surface low will support a chance (20-30%) of light rain or a
rain-snow mix Thursday from northeast NE into southwest IA.
Additional rain is possible (20-40% PoPs) across most of the
area Thursday night into Friday, along and behind a trailing
cold front moving through the area. Some light snow could mix in
across northeast NE; however, no accumulations are expected.

Highs will be in the 50s to low 60s ahead of the surface low and
front on Thursday with readings falling into the 40s and 50s on
Friday in the wake of the surface system.

Saturday and Sunday:

Latest ensemble mean solutions are in general agreement in
suggesting that a midlevel trough will move into the western
U.S. Saturday with that feature intensifying while progressing
into the Rockies on Sunday. In the low levels, inspection of
individual ensemble members suggests lee cyclone development
over WY or CO Saturday with fairly tight clustering of EPS and
GEFS surface low centers over eastern CO or western KS by
Sunday. Despite some latitudinal variance, the general model
consensus is for a surface boundary to extend from the CO low
into the mid-MO Valley at that time.

There`s still enough model variability in the specific details
of the midlevel pattern evolution and location of the primary
surface front, such that confidence in the temperature and
precipitation type/timing forecasts is low. However, confidence
in the occurrence of measurable precipitation is relatively
high, and that is reflected in the 50-70% PoPs Saturday night
and Sunday. A few thunderstorms will be possible during that
timeframe, especially across central and south parts of the
area. At present, the best potential for minor snow accumulations
appears to be across northeast NE where the WPC is indicating a
10-30% chance of 2-2.5" between 7 AM Sunday and 7 AM Monday.

Those with travel plans late this weekend into early
next week should keep an eye on the forecast going forward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Northwesterly winds of 12-16 kts with gusts up to 19-24 kts will
continue throughout the afternoon as winds gradually shift to
southwesterly. Winds are expected to remain under 12 kts
overnight at KOMA and KOFK. LLWS between 40 and 45 kts will
work its way into all terminals around 00z, persisting for much
of the night. Winds will gradually rotate back to northwesterly
through the early morning before increasing to speeds above 12
kts after sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Wood


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