Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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954
FXUS63 KOAX 141122
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
522 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE STILL THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGES IN THESE
PERIODS. NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. LAST EVENINGS 00Z 500 MB CHART SHOWED HEIGHT FALLS OF
UP TO 130 METERS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ERN MT...ERN WY AND WRN SD.
AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST HEIGHTS FALLS...THERE WERE SOME TSTMS WHERE
LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP AND THERE WAS SOME NEGATIVE EPV IN THE 700 TO
500 MB LAYER. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 06Z NAM...SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHTNING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME NEGATIVE EPV IN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LAYER MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON
THIS AND RECENT RADAR ECHO TOPS OVER 25K FEET IN PARTS OF NERN NE...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MID MORNING OVER PARTS OF
THE AREA BUT IN GENERAL THE FORCING...INCLUDING 700 MB OMEGA AND
700-500 MB DIV Q FIELDS...SUGGEST THAT PCPN WILL MOVE OFF EAST OF
OUR AREA QUICKLY. THAT LEAVES US WITH WEAK DESCENDING MOTION
LATER TODAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST CLOUDS CAN DECREASE.
THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS. IN GENERAL...LOWERED HIGHS
JUST A BIT...EXPECTING LESS SUNSHINE TODAY.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. THAT FEATURE CURRENTLY LOOKS MUCH WEAKER IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES
TO GENERATE ISOLD TO SCT LIGHT PCPN TONIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT WITH WET BULB EFFECTS...IT COULD BE
SNOW. WILL MENTION A MIX...BUT KEEP POPS MAINLY UNDER 30 PERCENT.

MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WITH INCREASING 925 MB/850 MB
TEMPS FCST...WE ARE LOOKING FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. SOME
UPPER 30S MAY LINGER IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND IT COULD REACH
AROUND 50 AT THE KANSAS BORDER.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF CONCERN WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL ADVERTISED AND MAY ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE STRONGEST
OVER OUR NRN ZONES...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS AND QPF THERE AS WELL
AS IN WRN IA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR PCPN TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT AGAIN COOLING DUE TO PCPN MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW. BEST SNOW CHANCES WOULD BE
IN WRN IA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...BUT BREEZY/WINDY AND TEMPS PROBABLY ABOUT THE
SAME OR COOLER THAN THOSE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A WEAK WAVE DOES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY BUT
OPTED TO LEAVE THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL NOT
BE CONDUCIVE FOR GOOD WARMING...SO AGAIN KEPT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S. IT WILL PROBABLY BE COOLEST FROM WAYNE TOWARD HARLAN WHERE IT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S...AND AGAIN WARMEST NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.

THURSDAY LOOKS WARMER. HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS AT LEAST
SOME CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE LIGHT PCPN. MIXING WILL BE
MUCH BETTER THOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THICKNESS VALUES RISE AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF PCPN. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...500 MB FLOW IS FAIRLY FLAT IN
OUR AREA AND BEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO STAY EITHER TO OUR
NORTH OR SOUTH.

FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE OUR WARMEST DAY WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH 60S POSSIBLE
SRN ZONES. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WITH
JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL DURING THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KOMA AND KOFK BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THIS AREA
OF LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 15Z. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE WEST LATER
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE TAFS
JUST YET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN



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