Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 140427
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1027 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Wind advisory currently in effect, but should be able to cancel a
few counties early with speeds below advisory levels in most areas.

Otherwise, there were a few flurries in southeast ND and
northeast SD in a moist cyclonic flow around the strong low
pressure system near Lake Michigan. ESRL HRRR/HRRR/RAP/Highres
ARW/NMM and Nam models all suggest that these might hold together
and possibly affect northwest/west central IA later this evening
and overnight. Will let the evening shift monitor and add later on
if necessary.

Focus shifting to the next Alberta Clipper that will move down the
Missouri River valley Thursday. Models have slowed down the
arrival of precip in northeast NE by a few hours, and have
adjusted grids accordingly. This could start as snow chances, but
becomes a rain/snow mix as temps warm into the upper 30s to lower
40s, which would significantly limit accumulations. Light snow or
flurries may linger Thursday evening before diminishing by
midnight. Snowfall amounts less than 1/2" at any given location.

Warming continues Friday and Saturday with west southwest surface
flow ahead of the next cold front. Readings both days well above
normal in the 40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Cooler air behind the cold front combined with approaching troughs
from both the north and south could bring snow and rain chances
to the area Saturday night into early Sunday. Although the forecast
is tilted toward the wetter ECWMF during this time, while the GFS
remains dry. Temperatures remain well above normal in the 40s
through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Low-end VFR ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR overnight at all
sites. A period of at least intermittent light rain and/or snow is
possible at KOFK and KLNK, with the higher chance at KOFK in the
early afternoon. With surface temperatures above freezing, little
or no snow accumulation is expected, as any snow would melt
quickly. Winds will remain out of the northwest at around 5-8kt.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Mayes



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