Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 221803
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
103 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Radar returns continue to increase and spread east across central
Nebraska but sfc obs continue to show little, if anything, reaching
the ground due to dry low levels per ceiling heights. Will still
carry some small pops across the northern half of the CWA through
the morning as weak isentropic upglide continues in mid-level
warm air advection regime. Otherwise, upper level ridging
continues to build overhead this morning with the ridge axis
forecast to extend over the mid-Missouri River Valley by 06z
Thursday. Some peaks of sun are possible today, but thick low
level clouds are expected to expand northward later tonight in
advance of a strong Great Basin trough. Have increased lows
tonight based on increasing stratus deck overnight and possible
showers or patchy drizzle. Light showers or drizzle will likely
continue into Thursday morning.

A cold front will drop south across the CWA Thursday evening as the
upper trough continues east over the Rockies. This is when we
introduce thunder into the forecast with fairly strong convergence
along the boundary. The front slowly slides south through the day
Friday leading to continued showers north of the boundary and a
chance of thunder to the south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Showers are likely to continue into Friday night and Saturday as the
upper low slowly moves east across the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Weak
shortwave ridging will move overhead Sunday followed by another
upper low/trough which is forecast to affect mainly Kansas and
southeastern Nebraska Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Weak short wave exiting the area early this afternoon, and as such
mid-level subsidence overspreading the area. Isentropic upglide
persisting 305K and below, allowing VFR ceilings 8-12K to persist
at all three TAF sites. Expect VFR conditions to continue through
the first 8 hours of the TAF cycle, with deteriorating conditions
thereafter. Access of H5 ridge will shift eastward, and will allow
deep, moist ascent to invade northern plains. Developing LLJ will
result the advection of MVFR then IFR ceilings into all three
TAF sites between 08 and 12 UTC. Forecast soundings will take
some time to saturate, so any precipitation will be in the form of
light drizzle.



&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Fortin



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