Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 130831
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MILDER WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS.

AREAS OF FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...SO WILL
MAINTAIN FROST ADVISORY AS IS. PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS ALSO BEING
REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS UNDER CORE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH THAT HIGH SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING...WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS
BEGUN IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND WILL SPREAD OVER OUR CWA TODAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THIS WARMER FLOW SHOULD PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS.

SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. WAVE WILL SHARPEN AS IT APPROACHES
OUR AREA...INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF
KANSAS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. BEST FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES LOOKS TO COME LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. HOWEVER SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES SPREADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA IN THE EVENING.

AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND
PUSHING HIGHS CLOSER TO 70 ON SUNDAY. ON THE BACK SIDE...LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND 850 THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE MID
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD GAIN ONLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES OVER MORNING LOWS...RANGING FROM THE 50S EARLY TO THE 60S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD SHOULD OFFER A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEK AS SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING TOWARD THE
PLAINS. WHILE MODELS SHOW A SPORADIC RIPPLE OR TWO TRIGGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...INCONSISTENCIES FROM MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LONGER WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE PLAINS FRIDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH
DAY...RISING FROM UPPER 60S TUESDAY TO THE UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ALL TAF SITES MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG 09-13Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH
AT 12-16 KNOTS BY 16Z...COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20-22 KNOTS AT
KLNK/KOFK THAT WOULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THEN WINDS BECOME
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 00Z AND BEYOND.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050-051-065-066-078-088-089.

IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD


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