Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 171210
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
710 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
CANADIAN AIR SLIDES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT TIED TO
UPPER LOW SPINNING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WAS DENOTED BY SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
BISECTING OUR CWA AS OF 06Z...WITH BATCH OF STRATO CU SPILLING
SOUTH BEHIND IT. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. COMBINATION OF COOLER AIR AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW THURSDAY HIGHS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY. A CHILLY START TO SATURDAY IS EXPECTED UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IN OUR WEST. HOWEVER CLOUDS
ERODING WEST TO EAST TODAY WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...KEEPING LOWS CLOSER TO 40 THERE. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO MOST OF
THE CWA BEFORE 00Z...BUT COOL START WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AT OR ABOVE 40 AND BOOST AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE 60S OR LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER AIR AGAIN SETTLING OVERHEAD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY SUGGESTS WE WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S
AGAIN. THEN UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE MERIDONAL WITH DEEP
TROUGHS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MUCH OF THE PLAINS WILL SEE SHARP UPPER
RIDGING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BULK OF ENERGY IN WESTERN
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S OR
HIGHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THEN A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TIED TO
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THEN...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE
DAMPENING AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP OUR CURRENT SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR MUCH TO COME OF THIS GIVEN
LATEST FEW RUNS OF MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT KOMA AND KOFK THROUGH 21Z WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT KOFK THROUGH 18Z. SCT-BKN VFR LAYERS
AFTER 21Z BECOMING CLEAR AFTER 02Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...FOBERT



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