Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 191121
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
521 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

TEMPERATURES LAST EVENING MIXED OUT INTO THE 30S IN MOST AREAS
BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND CONTINUED TO CLIMB SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. REACHING EARLY MORNING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MANY
SITES...WILL HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE THROUGH THE DAY
AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS IN ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD
AIR. SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD AND SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS HAS BEEN SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE COLD AIR. A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH AND
EAST AS A SOLID STRATUS DECK SPREADS OVERHEAD.

LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TODAY AND REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE
TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE
IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WEAK 850MB WAA FORECAST TO GET UNDERWAY
ON THURSDAY HOWEVER A LACK OF GOOD MIXING WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AT
THE SFC SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW
30S IN OUR SOUTHEAST.

CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING FOG
EVENT...PRIMARILY IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL GO AHEAD A INSERT A
MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
WAA SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 40S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS THE AXIS SLIDES INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF
PCPN THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PCPN TYPE SHOULD RAIN.

THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST BY EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS BEING THE NORTHERN
SOLUTION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP ANY PCPN TO OUR NORTHEAST
HOWEVER THE 00Z EC BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TOWARD OUR AREA WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN ANY CASE...COLD AIR
LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE AREA. DO TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO
WITH LOW POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT KOFK FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT
COULD BECOME VFR BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS JUST ABOVE VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KLNK/KOMA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE
SECONDARY PROBLEM WITH SPEEDS FROM 14-17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S...THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH 21-23Z. WHILE THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLURRIES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THIS
MORNING...FELT THEY PROBABLY WOULD NOT MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
KOFK/KOMA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AND
WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY IF THEY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEWALD



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