Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 161732
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE CLOUD COVER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AND SNOW CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA AT 00Z. 12 HOUR
HEIGHT FALL MAX WAS AROUND 140 METERS OVER ILLINOIS. AS OF EARLY
THIS MORNING THAT LOW HAD MOVED INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEW MEXICO UP INTO MONTANA...
AND ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST INTO CALIFORNIA.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 09Z SHOWED A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR AREA AND A RIDGE FROM MANITOBA DOWN INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FOR AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF OMAHA.

EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TODAY. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER
FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WINDS WILL
DECREASE. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT RECOVER MUCH. HAVE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S NORTH RANGING TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP SOME...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS. PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE IS SNOW
ON THE GROUND. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH POOR MIXING HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THOSE TODAY.

MODELS SHOW INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUMPED CHANCES UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR AN INCH. THE LIFT CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN
DROPS OFF. SO HAVE ADJUSTED PCPN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY...STAYING
FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SUGGESTED BY THE 03Z SREF MODEL. LOOK FOR
HIGHS THURSDAY FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

EAST OR SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BUT THE
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD
GENERALLY BE PCPN FREE FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...BASED ON THE EXPECTED
PATTERN.

HIGHS WILL MODERATE A BIT...FROM 30S FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE AS WELL FROM TEENS
AND 20S FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING
VFR BY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING NORTHERLY SFC WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MORNING. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KERN



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