Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 151137
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
637 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger this weekend with wildfire concerns
  continuing through at least the first half of the upcoming
  week.

- Above-normal temperatures today and Saturday, then cooler
  Sunday into Monday. Temperatures return to above normal in the
  Tuesday through Thursday time frame.

- Precipitation chances return to the forecast beginning
  Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Today:

Surface high pressure analyzed over eastern WY/western SD early
this morning is forecast to weaken while building into the
central Plains this afternoon. Subsidence associated with that
feature will support a decrease in clouds, especially by this
afternoon with highs in the mid 50s to around 60s.

This weekend:

A shortwave trough --evident in water vapor imagery-- over
northern parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan will undergo
significant amplification across Ontario into the Great Lakes
tonight into Saturday. As that occurs, an associated front/wind
shift will advance south through the mid-MO Valley Saturday
with strong northwest winds with gusts of 30-35 mph developing
within the post-frontal environment. A drier, low-level air mass
air mass will filter into the region behind the front, leading
to wildfire concerns during the afternoon and early evening
hours. The forecast will indicate very high fire danger during
that time; however, using the 15.00z HREF maximum winds/wind
gusts and minimum RH forecasts as a worst case scenario, some
locations could experience extreme fire danger, and a Red Flag
Warning may eventually need to be considered. Highs on Saturday
will range from mid 50s along the SD border to low/mid 60s along
the KS and MO borders.

A secondary cold front will move south through the region
Sunday, leading to cooler conditions with highs in the 40s to
low 50s. Winds will remain strong from the north with gusts of
30-35 mph, and very high fire danger expected again during the
afternoon and evening hours.

Monday through Thursday:

An initial high-amplitude midlevel pattern, characterized by
broad troughing east of the Rockies and high-over-low blocking
across western North America, will deamplify during the latter
half of the workweek. That pattern transition will feature a
subtropical-branch shortwave trough moving into the south-
central U.S. with the polar-branch of westerlies becoming quasi-
zonal across the north-central states. In the low levels, the
colder air mass in place across the mid-MO Valley Sunday will
start to modify by Monday (highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s)
with above-normal temperatures (highs in the 50s and 60s)
returning in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame.

The warming temperatures and expected dry conditions will foster
additional wildfire concerns through at least the first half of
the upcoming week. By about mid week, the global models suggest
that another front could move into the area and potentially
interact with the northern periphery of the above-mentioned,
south-central U.S. shortwave trough. As such, the forecast will
indicate a chance of rain from Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Northerly winds of 10-15 knots at the start of the forecast
period should back and become westerly by 21 UTC. Strong low-
level wind shear will be possible across western Iowa and far
eastern Nebraska (KOMA) from 6 UTC through the end of the
forecast period. Model consensus is 30-35 knots of shear in the
lowest 1500 feet, but isolated areas up to 45 knots are
possible, particularly in western Iowa. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of the
forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Darrah


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