Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 021718
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1218 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ARE THE PRIMARY WRINKLES IN OUR FORECAST FOR MORE SUN AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO COLORADO THIS MORNING.
SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM COLORADO SECTION OF TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SWING EAST TODAY...KICKED ALONG BY ANOTHER AND BIT STRONGER
WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. BOTH OF THESE IMPULSES
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA...AND OVERNIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A
MAJORITY OF HI-RES SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS SPOTTY
SHOWERS WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...SO OUR CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCES ARE ON
TRACK.

OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OR CLOSE TO 70. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER CURRENT BAND OF STRATO CU
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. LOTS OF SUN TUESDAY AS
WELL WITH THE BENEFIT OF WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING
A PINCH OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINING A BRIEF
STINT OF COOL ADVECTION...WHICH MAY KEEP HIGHS WEDNESDAY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS STILL ADVERTISED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER
PATTERN WILL BE BREAKING DOWN BEGINNING SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND KICKS MID ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW OUT TO
SEA. THIS ALLOWS RIDGE IN THE PLAINS TO FLATTEN A BIT AS IT DRIFTS
EAST...MAKING WAY FOR WESTERN LOW/TROUGH TO BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR
REGION. PRECISE DETAILS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BREAKDOWN WILL BE
WORKED OUT WITH TIME...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES WILL CERTAINLY ENTER THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW 80S LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SCT-BKN DECK
AROUND FL050-060 IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND AN ISO SHRA CAN`T BE
RULED OUT IN THE AREA...BUT THE CHCS STILL APPEAR TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAF SITE. A SCT-BKN MID LEVEL DECK IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THEN DECREASING ON TUE MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...


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