Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 270800
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MOST PART WITH SAME GENERAL CONCERNS OF
TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIP ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
MORNING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING WARMING TOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA. LATEST
RAP DECREASES AND ENDS CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER BACK TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT POPS FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING
THEN DRY BY LATE TUEDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT
HEAT INDEX EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA STILL
FEELING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL TRENDS FROM PAST RUNS AS UPPER
HIGH CENTER RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EAST.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
CHANGE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING TO 12 KNOTS OR GREATER
BY 17-20Z. CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA COULD AFFECT THE
KOFK TAF SITE 07-09Z. THEN CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
SHOULD MOVE IN LATER ON MONDAY...AGAIN AFFECTING MAINLY KOFK
17-21Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO
KLNK/KOFK AT THIS TIME.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD


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