Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 151747
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

FORECAST FOR TODAY IS MESSY/DIFFICULT WITH PCPN TYPE ISSUES...SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. KEPT THE PREVIOUS HEADLINES GOING FOR
TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

MAIN FEATURES FROM 00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. A
100 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WAS PUNCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. AT 500 MB...A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
WITH 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 180 METERS. LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS AT 700 MB AND 850 MB WERE VERY CLOSE TO THE 500 MB
LOW CENTER. A PLUME OF 5 TO 10 DEGREE CELSIUS 850 MB DEWPOINTS
STRETCHED FROM TEXAS UP INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...IN THE WARM
AIR. COLD AIR AT 850 MB HAD MOVED DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
POINTS WEST WITH THE 0 DEGREE CELSIUS LINE FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOWED THAT THE MAIN
CLOSED LOW HAD MOVED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE WAS ALSO A VORT
MAX FARTHER NORTH...IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODEL SHOW THE
CLOSED LOW TRACKING TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN TO SOUTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROGS STILL SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR A WHILE TODAY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
WARM WEDGE ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN...BUT AT LEAST
SLEET OR A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX. THAT WILL TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY
AREAS. THE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT ALBION TO
WAYNE SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. WITH
ICING POTENTIAL...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY THIS MORNING
AND MAY NEED TO UPGRADE A BIT MORE OF THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING IF
FREEZING RAIN BECOMES AND ISSUE OR IF THE PCPN CHANGES TO SNOW
FASTER THAN EXPECTED. SNOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY...JUST HOW
FAST IS UNCERTAIN. SOME SNOW COULD ALSO DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PCPN.
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS PROGRESSING EAST FAIRLY QUICK...AND
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TODAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO BLOWING
SNOW IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT
MEASURABLE SNOW SHOULD END BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THIS MORNING...WITH VALUES
THEN FALLING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A RIDGE OVER
MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND A TROUGH BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH
INITIALLY TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH SOME
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
AND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME SITUATED NEARLY NORTH SOUTH IN
NATURE...SOMEWHAT ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. AT 17Z KOMA WAS STILL
IN THE RAIN...KOFK WAS IN THE MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND KLNK IN
THE MIDDLE WITH NO CURRENT RAIN OR SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST KOFK AND KLNK SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL
LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z. SNOW CHANGEOVER WILL BE SLOWER AT
KOMA AND EXPECTING IT TO OCCUR BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z. AFTER 13Z
EXPECT SNOW TO BE EAST OF ALL THREE TAF SITES AND CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ012-
     016>018-030>032-042.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER


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