Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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247
FXUS63 KOAX 142116
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
316 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Models suggest that isolated snow and rain showers will move
through the area this evening, then push south of the area by
midnight. These are tied to an upper trough and reinforcing
surface trough across eastern SD that will settle southward
tonight. No significant accumulation expected although HRRR and
Highres ARW/NMM suggest a tenth of an inch if you happen to be
underneath one of the showers.

Much above normal temperatures return Friday into Saturday ahead
of the next cold front which arrives Saturday afternoon. Highs in
the 40s tomorrow, and in the mid 40s to upper 50s on Saturday,
depending on which side of the front.

Models do suggest that the trough currently across northwest
Mexico eventually gets shunted north Saturday night into Sunday.
the northern edge of this moisture could bring a wintry mix to
extreme southeast NE and southwest IA Sunday morning. Meanwhile,
an elongated area of pacific moisture to our north never gets a
strong enough push into the area so no precip expected from that
feature.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Significant warming takes place Monday through Wednesday of next
week ahead of a major pattern shift that hits our area on
Thursday. Temps in the 40s Monday and Tuesday, but likely into the
lower 50s for Wednesday. That`s the last warm day though, as an
arctic front arrives on Thursday. This also could signal a shift
to a wetter pattern into the Christmas Holiday period, but then
again, that`s still 10 days away, and a lot can change. Fairly
high confidence on the colder pattern, but lower confidence on any
precip/snowfall patterns at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Expect mainly VFR conditions at KOMA with a possible period of
MVFR ceilings this evening. Mixed rain and snow showers could
affect the KOFK and KLNK locations this afternoon with MVFR
conditions. IFR visibilities possible at KOFK and KLNK but for
now chances seemed low enough to leave out and may adjust if
things change in the next few hours. Any clouds below 4000 feet
AGL are expected to scatter out tonight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Miller



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