Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 261159
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL DEAL WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP OVER THE AREA. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION COMES INTO PLAY IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT
WAVE. SOME PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
FRIDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AREA REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH PULLS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. GFS AND
EURO DIFFER ON TIMING OF FEATURE THIS RUN SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS
POSSIBLE. TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES DURING THE
PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THIS TIME
WHILE ECMWF SHOWS LESS ENERGY. MAIN RESULT IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND MAY BRING A
BIT OF -RA TO KOFK/KLNK BUT MAY STAY JUST WEST OF KOMA. WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PREVAILING GROUP AT KOFK/KLNK AND A VC AT KOMA. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MRNG WITH A BKN MID-LEVEL
DECK THIS AFTN/EVNG BEFORE CLEARING. NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 12 KT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...


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