Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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931
FXUS63 KOAX 110520
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

03Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT WHICH HAD REACHED WRN
AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE SURGED SWWD
AS A COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST. 2-3 MB/2-HR PRESSURE
RISES AND MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING OBSERVED OVER ERN NEB AND WRN IA...AS IS A STEADY SWD
MOVEMENT OF LOW CLOUDS.

BASED ON 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE...WE HAVE RECENTLY UPDATED THE
FORECAST IN FAR NERN NEB TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW A LITTLE EARLIER TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU).
OTHERWISE...NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE FIRST OF THE THESE WAS CURRENTLY SEEN
IN NRN BC AND WILL DIVE SEWD TMRW ALNG THE STG THERMAL GRADIENT
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH STATIC STABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO AN
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE AND A WEAK FRONTAL CIRCULATION DVLPS WITH
SOME -SN BY AFTN OVER THE N STREAKING SEWD INTO WRN IA ON THU EVNG
WITH A HALF INCH OR SO ACCUM. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MRNG WITH BELOW NORMAL TMPS. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WITH
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT MOVES IN FOR SAT AND COULD SPREAD MORE LIGHT
SNOW TO MAINLY THE NRN CWA DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

PREFER THE EC/GEM TO START THIS PERIOD AS THE GFS APPEARS OVER-
DONE WITH FORCING/QFP FOR SUN WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO
BE TO OUR N/E. AFTER SUN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO
NORTHWEST/WEST AND WE SHOULD SEE WARMING TMPS INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON HOW WARM AND WILL
STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT WITH SOME IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM 09Z TO 15Z. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS
AT KOFK AND KOMA FOR LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR
CEILING MAY CONTINUE INTO THU EVENING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEAD
SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...MILLER



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