Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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085
FXUS63 KOAX 230428
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1128 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Early afternoon surface analysis indicated ridge axis from
southwest MN into northwest KS. This is expected to develop across
the FA overnight. With skies mainly clear, dry air in place, and
the light winds we will see a seasonably cool night. Some patchy
frost appears possible in the favored cooler areas of the CWA.
Return flow gets going on Sunday as the short-wave ridge and
associated height rises cross the northern Plains. Mixing to
around 850 mb yields highs in the lower 70s most places. With
gusty south winds, warm temperatures and dry air we will see very
high fire danger across the area on Sunday, but it appears that RH
will remain to high for any watches/warnings at this time. The
next short-wave trough will start to break down the ridge on
Monday with a surface trough moving into the CWA during the day.
Good mixing ahead of this feature should boost highs in the mid
70s. Moisture return still looks poor with the surface ridge to
the south so the front appears as if it will go through dry.

A stronger system associated with strong large-scale forcing for
ascent and frontogenesis moves into the area on Tuesday. This
should spread widespread rainfall to the area, starting in the
northwest in the morning and expanding across the area during the
day. The clouds, north winds and rain will likely make for a raw
day over the CWA with highs failing to climb out of the 40s in
northeast NEb and 50s southeast NEb/southwest IA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The Tuesday system will start to exit to the east on Tuesday
night, but the rainfall should continue into the evening hours.
Surface ridge will then build in for Tuesday night and Wednesday
with cool, but dry weather.

The latter periods of the forecast continue to look active with a
large trough develop over the central US with a number of
energetic systems moving through. The first appears will bring
rain to the area on Thursday into Friday and then quickly on the
heels of this, more rain for Saturday. With the mean trough in
place, and several periods of clouds and rain we will see well
below normal temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A surface ridge axis stretching from the mid MO Valley to central
High Plains as of 04z will build southeast overnight with winds
becoming southerly at the eastern NE TAF sites. By late Sunday
morning into Sunday afternoon, the onset of deeper boundary-layer
mixing and an intensifying lee trough over the High Plains will
yield gusty winds which should diminish by evening. Skies should
remain generally clear through the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Mead



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