Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 260805
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING IN AND AROUND THE
CWA THIS MORNING. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OPENING UP OVER CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WITH
UPSTREAM LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN WA/SOUTHERN BC.  WEAK 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...BUT
OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS WERE RISING OVER THE CONUS. WEAK AND NARROW
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OF 75-85KT WAS NOTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX
THROUGH CENTRAL OK AND INTO EASTERN NEB.  WEAK 850MB COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH SOUTHEAST SD/CENTRAL
NEB/NORTHWEST KS/EASTERN CO.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...8C+ DEWPOINTS
WERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF 25-35KT 850MB
FLOW.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS NOTED OVER NORTHWEST IA/EAST CENTRAL
NEB...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM/WESTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB
TOWARD SOUTHEAST KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SLOW WIND-DOWN OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH A WARM AND DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND WEAK/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MO VALLEY.  LIKELY WILL SEE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NEB AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST IA...UNTIL LOW MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE TAKE
OVER IN ITS WAKE.  HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS HANGING AROUND.

ONCE SHOWERS/STORMS EXIT...WHICH SHOULD BE BY AROUND 00Z...QUIETER
WEATHER SETS IN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
DO NOT COOL SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE LOW...AND RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UPWARD.  SURFACE
WINDS ARE WEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE
ON THE MAX TEMPS.  A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
EASTERN NEB ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW=LEVEL JET DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS WEAK AND COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
GREAT...SO DID TREND POPS DOWNWARD.  POTENTIAL CONTINUES THURSDAY
UNDER CONTINUED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  DID
INCREASE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE
OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON STABILITY...WHICH MAY BE IMPEDED BY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THOSE PERIODS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH
TROUGH PASSAGES THESE LAST FEW WEEKS...PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND
MURKY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY FOCUSED AREAS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.  ECMWF
IS ON THE FASTER SIDE...AND BOTH ECMWF/GFS BRING 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-SINGLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY
NORTH WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS...SUSPECT SATURDAY
MIGHT BE A COOLER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES RECOVER A BIT
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD UNDER RETURN FLOW...AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
LINGER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION BUT A CHANCE
WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT



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