000
FXUS63 KOAX 100451
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

MODELS IN RELATIVELY DECENT AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS WILL BE NEAR ZONAL WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF RUSHES
ACROSS CANADA. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THEN...PATTERN IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN AMPLIFYING WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WRN CONUS BY SAT AFTN. MEANWHILE...GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN IN EARNEST LATER TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND
ALLOWS MOISTURE TO SLIDE UP ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. APPEARS THAT
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE THEN THRU THE FCST PD.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL SD
INTO N-CNTRL NEB MOVING SE WITHIN POCKET OF MID LYR ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND EXPAND INTO THE WRN CWA THEN EARLY
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN ISSUE IS PINNING DOWN PLACEMENT/TIMING THUNDER POPS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...REASONABLE ASSUME ON THUR NIGHT/FRI
NIGHT...LLVL JET AND FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/THETA-E CONVG
WITHIN BNDRY LYR WILL HELP INDUCE NOCTURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY. AS FOR
SVR TSTMS...NAM IS ADVERTISING POSSIBLE SVR DEVELOPMENT THUR NIGHT
OVER N-CNTRL NEB WITH MUCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL
SHEAR. ALL THIS IN PART TO LEESIDE SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT THERMAL
BNDRY EXTENDING FROM ABOUT NERN CO TO NERN SD. GFS INSTABILITY/SHEAR
AT THAT TIME THOUGH IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER.
NEVERTHELESS...SITUATION BEARS WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN CMC/ECM/GFS EARLY ON THAT AMPLIFICATION
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. AT
THIS POINT DETERMINISTIC ECM/GFS AS WELL AS ECMENS/CMCENS ALL
INDICATE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL BECOME STAGNANT AND ALLOW A RATHER
COOL AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON TO EXPAND SWD INTO THE
REGION DAY 6 AND 7. EXPECT THEN A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL SEE WELL BELOW NORMAL AFTN TEMPS TUES AND WED. GOING POPS IN
THE EXT PDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

POCKETS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
05Z WITH KLNK STILL REPORTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. RAP STILL
INDICATES A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA SYSTEM
AS LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE ADVECTION TRANSLATE INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING. HAVE LIMITED
A PERIOD OF CONVECTION AT KLNK DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AT
KOMA AFTER 15Z. KOFK IS EXPECTED TO BE ON EDGE OF ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE IF RAP IS
HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION WITH ITS SOLUTION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT