000
FXUS63 KOAX 231138
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
638 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

A significant midlevel trough from the northern Inter-mountain
Region to Great Basin early this morning will edge east through
the Interior West this weekend before emerging into the Great
Plains early next week. Meanwhile, the associated surface frontal
system will remain quasi-stationary from the upper-MS Valley to
central High Plains into early Sunday before advancing southeast
through the mid-MO Valley late Sunday into Monday.

Today, model guidance is suggestive that the low-level temperature
profiles will cool slightly compared to Friday, translating to
highs in upper 80s to lower 90s within the pre-frontal warm
sector. The surface front could reach a Columbus to Wayne line
this morning before stalling and then redeveloping northwest later
today into tonight. The best precipitation chances will be along
and to the north of the front where convergence is locally
enhanced. A strong storm or two is possible with the primary
hazards being hail and damaging winds.

Tonight, the best thunderstorm chances will remain across the
northwestern CWA with record warm minimum temperatures (see
climate section) again in jeopardy of being tied or broken.

The surface front will assume a steady advance through the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday before briefly stalling
Monday night over our southeastern counties. Convective
precipitation will become increasingly widespread during that time
frame with both WPC and model consensus QPF indicate the highest
storm-total amounts (1.75-2.50") falling across western parts of
the forecast area. Higher totals will likely occur in narrow
corridors across the area. Specifically where these mesoscale
bands will set up remains uncertain at this juncture. As
mentioned in previous discussions, below-normal precipitation for
the past month should limit runoff initially. However, where
persistent training of storms occurs, we could see an increasing
threat for flash flooding and rising streams and rivers.

High temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid to upper 80s
ahead of the front to 70s north of it. By Monday, readings will
fall into the 60s and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Showers and a few thunderstorms should begin to taper off from
north to south late Monday night into Tuesday as the cold front
continues south into the lower-MO Valley. During the middle to
latter part of the upcoming work week, latest medium-range
guidance indicates the intensification of a longwave trough from
eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region. This pattern will
yield a generally dry forecast with slightly below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Primary aviation forecast concern will be reduced ceilings at OFK
this morning. An area of 1300-2500 ft cigs very near TAF site at
12Z should build overhead shortly, lingering through 16-18Z at
which time it should break up to VFR with winds shifting back out
of the south. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at TAF sites
with a small chance for a few storms to develop mainly this
afternoon and brief period of LLWS possible near the surface
front.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Today`s temperature records are:

Warm MaxWarm Min

Omaha   96 (1892)       72 (1892)
Lincoln 97 (1921)       72 (1930, 1892)
Norfolk 92 (1921)       69 (1958, 1937)

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
CLIMATE...Mead