Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 221725

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Mainly clear and mild conditions are forecast through the weekend,
with an increase in clouds the only real change for Monday.

Upper ridge was noted from west Texas through the Canadian Rockies
this morning, with one potent shortwave noted riding across Idaho
and Montana. This wave will move across the US/Canada border today,
then drive a cold front south in its wake later tonight.

Ahead of the front, we will see sunny skies and southerly winds
today, pushing highs into the 70s all areas. Cold front is forecast
to move into northeast Nebraska this evening then push through
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa Sunday morning. Cooler airmass
will spill into our area as surface high pressure settles southeast
into the Upper Mississippi River Valley region on Monday. North
winds and cooling low levels will be offset somewhat by abundant
sunshine to keep highs at or above normal readings Sunday afternoon.

By Monday, low level flow will already be turning around to the
south or southeast as upper ridge builds over the Plains downstream
of deepening trough in the western states. However increasing mid
and high clouds and slow return of warmer air from the south will
keep temperatures in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

A potent shortwave moving across the Plains will bring a fairly
decent chance for precipitation Tuesday, with a return to our recent
tranquil weather pattern following for the end of the week.

Models have trended slightly slower with strong shortwave ejecting
into the Plains, now bringing highest precip chances into eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa Tuesday night. However our first shot of
precipitation will come late Monday night as warm advection
intensifies in northeast Nebraska just west of retreating ridge
axis. Moisture return will not be robust at this time, so will
maintain fairly low chances.

Main surface low tied to shortwave will be swinging through eastern
Nebraska Tuesday night. Robust moisture return should be well
underway Tuesday afternoon as Gulf is wide open and GFS paints a
wide swath of 1-1.5 inch precipitable water from Texas into our
area, approaching record levels for late October. MLCAPE values
increase markedly Tuesday afternoon as well, with near 1000 j/kg
noted over a good part of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Thus
thunderstorms with heavy rain will become increasingly likely later
Tuesday and especially Tuesday night as surface low swings through.

With slightly slower timing, will maintain rain chances into at
least Wednesday morning before mid level ridging behind shortwave
begins to dry things out for the rest of the week. Temperatures
through the week will average near or slightly above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Quiet, VFR, conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There
is some risk of wind shear overnight between 06 and 12Z.




LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Pearson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.