Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 180510
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE
SHORT TERM. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ARND THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE LOWER PLAINS. THE SFC HIGH WILL
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CROSSING THE FA
DURING THE DAY ON SAT. OVERNIGHT SOME OF THE SHRT RANGE MODELS
WOULD BRING THE SC DECK OVER ERN SD/MN INTO THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FA
AS THE WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER TURN TO THE N/NE...WHILE
OTHERS KEEP THIS DECK TO THE NORTH. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT
WHICH WILL END UP BEING CORRECT...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER
IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS TO
MOVE SWD. SFC RIDGE WILL CROSS THE CWA ON SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONT TO INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FLATTENS AND EXPANDS EWD. ANY MORE CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE...BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH THE
SFC HIGH IN PLACE LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE ARE
SEEING TODAY WITH GOOD MIXING. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS CAPTURED
WELL AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FIRST FEW PERIODS.
RETURN FLOW WILL GET GOING ON SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON SUN
NIGHT AND MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONT OTHER THAN A WIND CHANGE AND SOME INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE QUIET FALL WEATHER WILL CONT INTO THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CROSSES THE CNTRL PLAINS FOR TUE AND WED. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST INDICATES ON TUE
AND WED...BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR LIMITED MIXING WITH A
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. THE FLOW WILL
TURN SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW-CHC
POPS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU FOR MAINLY THE WRN FA AS THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO REACH OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE REALIZED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS COULD AFFECT KOMA
LATER TONIGHT. WENT WITH JUST A SCATTERED DECK FOR NOW...BUT WILL
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS IF A BROKEN DECK MAY MOVE IN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...DEWALD



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