Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 172310
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

QUIET WEATHER INITIALLY...THEN TRANSITIONING TO WARMER AND MORE
UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER REGION...WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
TOPPING THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. THIS SECOND WAVE COULD
BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHEASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN IA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...THEN
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DEWPOINTS INITIALLY WILL BE DRY...BUT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL HELP
BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
BE LOWEST ACROSS WESTERN  IOWA...AND A BIT HIGHER IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA... BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY EVENING. COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
NEAR THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL AFTER 21Z SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AT PEAK HEATING WHEN A WEAK CAP
ERODES. INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WIND SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WITH WEAKENING
SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANYTHING ISOLATED.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT KICKER TO PUSH IT OUT.
THE GFS IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLDING ONTO CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS COULD BRING SOME GENEROUS RAINFALL TO SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. PRECIP DEFICITS ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 2 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL...DESPITE THE GENEROUS RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND. HAVE COORDINATED
WITH MBRFC ON POTENTIAL RIVER FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...CONVECTIVE THREAT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD STILL A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE SOUTH OF I80 EARLY
MONDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THE ORIGINAL
STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN THE WESTERN US EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE FIRST SUBTLE WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH COULD
AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND REINFORCING SHORT WAVE...COMBINED
WITH TYPICAL LOW LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE MORE RAINFALL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE THROUGH AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT MID WEEK...BUT WAY TO FAR OUT
TO FIGURE OUT ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS. UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 25 KNOTS
BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



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