Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 152041
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
341 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High to very high fire danger is possible Saturday and Sunday.
  Will keep a close watch for the potential for some extreme
  fire weather conditions in the northern half of the forecast
  area.

- Dry conditions will continue through much of the forecast with
  some light precipitation potential by day 7.

- Cold overnight lows in the teens to low 20s possible Monday morning.
  Temperatures gradually warm back up toward the latter half of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Surface high pressure continues to build east across the area this
afternoon which has produced a fairly nice day in the 50s with only
a few clouds and winds under 12 mph. An upstream mid/upper level
trough currently dropping southeast across northern Manitoba will
quickly dive south/southeast into Ontario and towards the Great
Lakes region tonight. This will allow a surface cold front to
slide through the forecast area Saturday morning. Northwesterly
winds could gust to 25-30 mph behind this front on Saturday with
high temperatures reaching the mid 50s in our north to the low
60s in our south. Cold air advection will continue into the
remainder of the weekend as a northern lobe of this trough
pushes a secondary cold front through the region. Gusty
northwest winds of 30-35 mph look likely throughout the day.
With highs only in the 40s, wind chill values throughout the day
will be in the 20s and 30s.

In regards to fire weather concerns over the weekend, beneficial
wetting rains covered much of the southeastern half of the CWA which
has helped fuels for a couple of days. Minimum RH values on Saturday
are expected to remain above 20% and Very High Fire danger is
possible in our northwestern half of the CWA. If drier RH values are
able to move into the area, we may need to consider Red Flag
conditions. On Sunday, a cooler airmass will be in place and minimum
RH values are expected to remain above 20% again but fuels will be
more dried out and so will need to monitor for Very High to Extreme
fire conditions for Sunday.

By Monday morning, cold, Canadian high pressure will build overhead
dropping Monday morning lows into the teens and 20s. Cool upper
troughing over the Great Lakes will push toward the eastern CONUS
early next week allowing upper ridging and a warmer airmass to
spread east across the western CONUS and toward the central Plains.
A gradual warm up is expected across our area which could lead to
continued fire weather concerns. Northwesterly flow aloft is
forecast to persist into the end of next week keeping highs in the
60s. A trough coming out of the desert southwest will begin to eject
into the southern Plains by the end of next week keeping a majority
of any promising moisture well to our south. A more active pattern
is setting up for the central Plains into next weekend with hints of
a strong low moving across the central CONUS but that`s quite a
ways out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with a few
scattered fair-weather cumulus clouds this afternoon. These
should diminish with sunset. North/northwest surface winds will
gust to around 15kts this afternoon before subsiding to below
10kts overnight. LLWS is possible for a few hours at KOMA
overnight but is not anticipated to last long. A cold front will
turn surface winds to the northwest through Saturday morning
and gusts behind this front could be up to 25kts. A few thin
high clouds are possible throughout the day Saturday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Kern


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