Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 132007
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
307 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDCD SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDING
EWD AND RETURN FLOW GETTING GOING OVER THE CWA. THIS...ALONG WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF CLOUDS...WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER NIGHT FOR THE
CWA. THE RETURN FLOW WILL CONT TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUN AND SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE DAY. THE
CURRENT FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NE NEB
ON SUN BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOISTURE JUST
RETURNING TO THE AREA. BY SUN EVENING AS A SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD INCREASE AND THIS...ALONG WITH THE DECENT ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD LATE EVNG. WE WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS THRU THE NIGHT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. COOL WX WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FOR MON AND WE HAVE LOWERED GOING HIGHS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR ON MON NIGHT LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THE
FA...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WE SAW THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON TUES WE WILL AGAIN SEE
WAA ON TUE NIGHT AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISO SHOWERS...MAINLY IN
THE SW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AND WE WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES EVERY DAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS/GEM INDCG A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND RA
MOVG THROUGH THE AREA WHILE THE EC HAS MORE RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. WILL CONT WITH SOME LO CHC POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT TO
BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THESE SHOULD
DISIPATE THIS EVENING. BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME C18Z SUNDAY AT KOFK AND
LOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE MORE TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT IN THE 400O TO 8000 FOOT AGL
LAYER. AT LEAST FOR NOW...FOG DOES NOT SEEM PROBABLE LATER
TONIGHT...SO LEFT THAT OUT OF TAFS. TSTM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AFTER 00Z MONDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MILLER



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