000
FXUS63 KOAX 210901
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
401 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND IF
ANY ISOLATED TSRA CAN DEVELOP...THEN HEAT HEADLINES FOR TODAY AND
TUESDAY.

THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE...BUT CAPPED WITH 1.54 INCHES OF
PWAT. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS WITH THE MAIN H3 JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAKER JET
SEGMENT OVER ARIZONA. WEAK SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
OVER COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.  WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES COVERED MUCH OF THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE AREA OF
+14-16DEG C TEMPERATURES AT H7. DEEP MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE FROM
TEXAS INTO THE PLAINS.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT INTO IOWA. THE RAP AND
THE HOPWRF TRY TO DEVELOP STORMS TOWARD FALLS CITY OR KANSAS CITY AND
THE GFS NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO WESTERN IOWA. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...THE STORMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
DEVELOPING WITH SUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. FOR OUR
AREA...THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. DUE TO THE HEAT AND THE HUMIDITY...HAVE CONTINUED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 108 TO 114 DEGREES. AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW TRIPLE DIGITS...SOME STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP.
AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE REACHED...THUS HAVE LEFT MAINLY DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN...HOT TEMPERATURES FROM 95
TO 100 ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S BEHIND IT.  THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THOSE
AREAS WHERE HEAT INDEX EXCEEDS 105 DEGREES TUESDAY. IF THE FRONT
MOVES IN FASTER...THE HEADLINE AREA MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA...SO HAVE MAINTAINED POPS THERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES WILL BE HIGH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY.  LOOK FOR
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY
HOLD TOGETHER ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND AND A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS WILL
RETURN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THE COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. READINGS
MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY IF THE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SOME INDICATION FROM EVENING MODELS THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD INDEED
FORM AGAIN BY MORNING AS HAD BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREAD COULD REMAIN GREATER
THAT PAST FEW MORNINGS AS READINGS/WINDS WERE A LITTLE
HIGHER...DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP OF CIGS NEAR FL010 FOR A
FEW HOURS MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WOULD EXPECT A RELATIVELY
QUICK EROSION IN THE LOWER CLOUDS...IF THEY DO INDEED FORM...AS
TEMPERATURES/WINDS INCREASE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>033-042.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...CHERMOK