Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 201147
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
647 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Isolated showers or sprinkles will be possible northeast NE and
western IA early this morning, but should be east of the forecast
area by 15z. Experimental 3km HRRR and 4km NSSL WRF models hint at
some instability showers developing this afternoon underneath
relatively cool temps aloft, but that may also just be a cumulus
field that should develop, but will monitor and adjust the
forecast if any sprinkles develop by mid afternoon.  Otherwise,
it will be much cooler than normal today with breezy northwest
winds at 10 to 20 mph and highs only in the lower and mid 70s.

High pressure begins to settle over the forecast area this
evening, resulting in clearing skies and diminishing winds. Temps
tonight drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s, or typical normal
nighttime temps for the beginning of Fall instead of mid Summer.

It should be a beautiful day Sunday with Southerly flow slowly
returning with abundant sunshine, highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s, and light winds less than 10 mph.

Winds become breezy again Monday with a south-southwest component,
with speeds 15 to 20 mph and gusts 20 to 30 during the afternoon.
Should still be a beautiful day with a lot of sunshine with highs
in the mid 80s to near 90 once again.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Thunderstorm chances re-enter the area Tuesday through Wednesday
as monsoonal moisture moves northward as a new trough crosses the
rockies pushing a cold front into the area. Will see a chance of
storms Tuesday, with highest areal coverage Tuesday night. Rain
chances should be over before daybreak Thursday, with dry and cooler
weather for Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 621 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Variable sky and wind conditions this morning with vfr/mvfr
clouds and brisk northwest winds. TAF sites will be affected by a
patch of low level moisture and clouds under cyclonic flow this
morning. Instability cu should develop this afternoon, however
drying is forecast for tonight. Variable winds this morning,
however will keep brisk northwest winds 10 to 16kts and gusty going
through the day...diminishing to light northwest after 01z.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DeWald
LONG TERM...DeWald
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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