Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 241808
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
108 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

WV imagery this morning showing an upper level closed low over the
mid MS vly getting kicked eastward in response to a well amplified
ridge extending from the from Great Basin into central Canada
building into the Plains. Father upstream...a quite potent vort
max was making landfall over southern British Columbia.

With the exception of possible isolated showers Thursday afternoon
and Friday afternoon...dry conditions will prevail heading into this
weekend in addition to a warming trend thanks to increasing thkns.
Should translate to highs increasing from the mid 60s this afternoon
to the mid 70s on Thursday...then upper 70s by Friday.

Friday afternoon...both the NAM and GFS hit the development of a
convective complex in the Neb panhandle where activity will be
induced by cyclonic turning of low level geostrophic winds are
progged to intersect with 850mb frontogenetic forcing. MCS is
progged to reach the CWA then sometime toward midnight. A moisture
rich environment will be in place...KI 35-40....PWS 1.5". Did note
though the latest ECM/CMC both lag about 6hrs behind the NAM/GFS
bringing the complex into the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Precip chances continue Sunday night into early next week. GFS/ECM
in agreement showing large scale flow becoming somewhat less
progressive during the extended periods with several potent
embedded impulses riding down the backside of a large...closed off
upper low as it migrates toward the Great lakes region. And with
northwesterly flow prevailing aloft over the region...expect highs
to a bit on the below normal side with temperatures generally
topping out in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Lingering cumulus field remains across eastern Nebraska at the
start of the period as upper low sinks slowly south over central
Missouri. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period with the sct-bkn cu layer dissipating with loss of
heating after 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Fobert


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