000
FXUS63 KOAX 012100
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE SOUTHWARD DRIFT SO FAR AS
INDICATED BY YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
SNOW DIMINISHING AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE TO THE WEST WHICH
GOES ALONG WITH LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN DEVELOPING SNOW TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWARD TRACK ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MISS OUT ON ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AS EXPECTED
EARLIER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL EARLY.

AS THE SNOW ENDS THE FORECAST CONCERN WILL TURN TO VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. LATEST FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
WIND FOR TONIGHT RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -30 OR COLDER BY
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH WHERE FRESH SNOW
COVER IS IN PLACE SO HAVE REPLACED THE WIND CHILL WATCH THERE
WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING. IN THE CENTRAL SWATH OF COUNTIES A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT DURING THIS SAME TIME. FOR THE
SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR NOW AS THE FOCUS FOR SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE BITTER COLD
HANGING ON INTO MONDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
AT THAT TIME BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION.

THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND GRADUAL WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

EXPECT SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD AND MAINLY
JUST ONE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL BE WAVY AND PROGRESSIVE DURING THE PERIOD...
WITH A TENDENCY FOR A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA
BY SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD WARM
TO THE 30S AND 40S FOR BOTH THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITHTHE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE SHORTWAVES AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER FOR
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...BRINGING SOME ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THAT THROUGH MORE IN THE WEDNESDAY
PERIOD. WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THE GFS A BIT CLOSER SINCE IT HAS SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL. THERE ARE A FEW OTHER SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PCPN...BUT THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

SNOW WIND AND COLD WILL ALL BE FACTORS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KOFK CEILINGS HAD ALREADY LOWERED TO
MVFR COMBINED WITH LIGHT SNOW WHILE KOMA AND KLNK WILL FOLLOW
AFTER 20Z. WE STILL ANTICIPATE SNOW TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO AROUND 3/4 MILE. DUE TO THE
STRETCHED OUT DURATION OF THIS EVENT...HAVE MAINTAINED THE BROAD
TEMPO GROUPS AT EACH TAF SITE. I USUALLY TRY TO KEEP TEMPO
PERIODS SHORTER BUT THIS SEEMS LIKE A CASE WHERE IT JUST WORKS
BEST. LATEST MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A NARROW STREAK RIGHT ACROSS
KOMA MAY EXPERIENCE A SNOW MINIMUM. STILL...WITH THE COLD DRY
POWDER TYPE SNOW THAT WILL FALL...COMBINED WITH BITTER COLD AND
WIND...AVIATION TRAVEL WILL STILL BE IMPACTED. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END...FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-
     012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067-078.

     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ068-088>093.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
     NEZ050>053-065>067-078.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-
     055-056-069-079-080.

     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
     IAZ043-055-056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ090-091.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
     IAZ069-079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER