Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 022042
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM...MOIST
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S STREAMING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN THE
METRO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ARE CLOSER TO
THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND THE FRONTS.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
PROGRESS OF A SHORTWAVE TROF AND THE AID OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AREA OF STORMS SO HAVE THIS MENTIONED...THEN TREND TO LIKELY
POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO WESTERN IOWA
AN THE MCS SHOULD ALSO BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST . SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...SO ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY TRY TO RE-FORM...HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE AND HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE DOES
EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND IF SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED...TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S.
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE
HIGHS FROM 78 TO 84 DEGREES. WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/UNSTABLE
AIR (3000J/KG) IN PLACE AND THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND A FRONT IN THE AREA...THE AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.3 INCHES TO 1.7 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PUTTING DOWN HEAVY RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON WE WERE ADDED TO THE
DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PERIODS.

THE REAL WARM TEMPERATURES STAY TO THE SOUTH AND THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNCAPPED AND RIPE FOR CONVECTION.  THE ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE STORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS COVERAGE FOR
STORMS ON FRIDAY.  HIGHS EACH DAY SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 76 TO 82.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT EAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH MORE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. FINALLY
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...HOWEVER STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

A FEW MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AFTER 18Z AT KOFK AND KLNK...BUT THOSE
CIGS WILL BE LIFTING AND SCATTERING EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE FL040 TO FL090 RANGE
CAN BE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRACK
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z. ATTENDANT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
STORMS COULD AFFECT KOFK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AND
KOMA/KLNK AREAS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
MVFR OR IFR CIGS WILL SETTLE IN TO KOFK AFTER THE STORMS PASS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN


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