Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 010420
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT CLOUD COVER
AND ISOLD PCPN MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVERNIGHT IN PARTS OF SERN
NEBRASKA AND SWRN IOWA. ADDED A BIT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT IN OUR NRN
AND CNTRL ZONES. OTHERWISE CHANGES OVERNIGHT WERE FAIRLY MINOR.]

UPDATED GRIDS AND PRODUCTS A FEW TIMES AND WILL DO SO AGAIN BEFORE
1130 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
TRIGGERED A COUPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS TODAY. THE FIRST AREA HAS
BEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT HAS
MOSTLY BEEN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TIED TO THE UPPER
WAVE WAS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF
THUNDER TO DEVELOP IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. THUS...WILL STILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING FOR VERY SPOTTY HIT/MISS
ACTIVITY... WHICH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF I80 BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
END BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE NOW CROSSING THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND AT LEAST
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY
WILL MAKE IT...BUT LATER FORECASTS CAN ADJUST AS NECESSARY.

AND FINALLY...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY SPOTTY LIGHT THUNDERSHOWERS POSSIBLE.

NONE OF THE THREE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BRING MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO
THE REGION UNFORTUNATELY.

TEMPS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMUP...MID TO
EVENTUALLY UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
TO 40/50 PERCENT...THEN MOVING OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHRA AND TSRA...BUT THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SEEMS SMALL. DID KEEP TEMPO
GROUPS FOR KOMA AND KLNK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH -SHRA BUT DID
NOT MENTION A VSBY RESTRICTION. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE 4000
FEET BUT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR IN ANY
TSRA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER


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