Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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956
FXUS63 KOAX 300800
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
300 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

General pattern looks to continue cloudy and wet through the short
term.

Nearly vertically stacked weather system was located over eastern
Kansas at 07Z with models showing a slow track east across central
Missouri today. Radar has shown a decrease in areal coverage of
showers from earlier this evening and this trend is expected to
continue through the day with the back edge of the showers
reaching the far southeast corner of the forecast area by late
afternoon and ending there by early evening.

After the rain moves out the big question then becomes persistence
and extent of clouds as area again becomes situated between two
systems again on Friday. Time sections and forecast soundings
indicate only a slim chance of any sun on Friday before the next
round of rain moves in on Saturday. The Saturday system looks to
be handled by models similar to the current system initially in
tracking south of the area with overrunning pattern across
Nebraska and main convection to the south. Models however weaken
this system after Saturday and have become an open wave by Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Upper pattern looks to remain quite active in the extended period
with Tuesday into Wednesday problematic with different solutions
from the GFS and ECMWF. GFS indicates potential snow for northern
parts of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday while European model
has a warmer thermal pattern for the area. Have kept everything
liquid for now but will have to see how later runs handle this
situation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Rain and IFR conditions will continue at all 3 TAF sites through
the overnight hours. Rainfall should become less widespread after
sunrise with showers more likely into the afternoon. Did continue
VCSH mention in the TAFS into Thursday afternoon. IFR conditions
will continue through the afternoon but could become MVFR by
Thursday evening.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Kern



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