Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 010434
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1034 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND GETTING A COUPLE OF
NEW SNOWFALL REPORTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES IN THE FAIRBURY...WILBER AND
LINCOLN AREAS...OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WARNING. SNOWFALL
RATES HAVE DEFINITELY PICKED UP IN THE I80 CORRIDOR WHICH WILL
HELP BRING TOTALS UP JUST SLIGHTLY MORE. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
COMPACTING...BUT IT`S STILL ACCUMULATING AND WILL PUSH US CLOSER
TO THE 8 INCH CRITERIA IN A FEW AREAS. ALSO...WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS...FELT MORE COMFORTABLE GETTING A HEADLINE UPGRADE OUT
DURING THE EVENING NEWS RATHER THAN WAITING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 920 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

WINTER HAS RETURNED. AS EXPECTED...00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES
ABOUT 210-280% ABOVE NORMAL. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS RANGED FROM 40 TO
80 METERS ACROSS THE REGION...AND OVERALL THE AREA REMAINS WITHIN
THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR
NORTH.

SNOW CONTINUES AT THIS TIME...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY WILL BE WINDING DOWN ON SUNDAY.
THE SNOW SO FAR HAS BEEN A VERY HEAVY WET SNOW WITH SNOWFALL
RATIOS WELL BELOW 10:1. TEMPS HAVE REMAINED JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ROAD
CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS...PERHAPS MORESO THAN EXPECTED.

WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS IN MOST
AREAS...THEY ARE BACKING AND BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.
WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE BY 12Z AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE KC AREA...WHICH WILL THEN CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW.

REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WE CURRENTLY HAVE 5 TO 9 INCHES
FORECAST WITH HIGH END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN
EFFECT AND THAT TREND SEEMS OK. THE HEAVY WET SNOW IS COMPACTING
QUITE A BIT ON THE GROUND. HAVE UPPED AMOUNTS JUST SLIGHTLY BASED
ON REPORTS. THUS...THIS WILL LIKELY END UP ON THE HIGH END OF THE
ADVISORY CATEGORY. HAVE ALSO CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL BE TAKING
PLACE ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS EASILY APPROACHING 40 MPH. WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW VISIBILITIES RESPOND TO THAT AS IT MAY END UP IN NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OUTLYING REMOTE AREAS ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. WILL DEFER THAT TO THE NEXT FORECAST ONCE WE GET MORE
MODEL DATA IN.

AS A SIDE NOTE...WE WILL BREAK WATER EQUIVALENT RECORDS AT BOTH
LINCOLN AND OMAHA FOR JAN 31.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

SNOW AND HEADLINES ARE THE MAIN PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE
KEPT PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.

A 90 KNOT JET MAX WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST US AT 12Z. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG WINDS AT 300 MB WAS FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RECENT RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAJA. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND ANOTHER WAVE WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA. A 12 HOUR 500 MB HEIGHT FALL MAX OF ABOUT
130 METERS WAS OVER MONTANA AND ANOTHER AROUND 100 METERS WAS NEAR
THE MEXICO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. SO THIS IS A FAIRLY COMPLEX SETUP...
WITH SOME PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

MOISTURE HAS BEEN RETURNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AREAS OF
SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
HEADLINES...ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE WARNING IN THE NORTH.
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (850-700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES 3-4 G/KG
AT 6 PM THIS EVENING...FALLING TO 2-3 G/KG BY 12Z SUNDAY) ALONG
WITH GOOD FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW AMOUNTS FROM ABOUT 4 TO 9
INCHES IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED
NORTH AND EAST. AS COLDER AIR SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT (WHICH EXTENDED FROM WISCONSIN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON)...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND ROADS
WILL START TO ICE UP/BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD START SLIDING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE
SOME BLOWING SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY IN NEBRASKA AND UNTIL 9 PM
SUNDAY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. IT IS POSSIBLE THESE MAY BE CANCELLED
EARLIER THAN THAT...BUT THAT IS WHAT WE WILL GO WITH FOR NOW.

SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AND LIFT PULLS OUT OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE LOWS FALLING OR AROUND ZERO...OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF OMAHA...BUT NOT A BIG DEAL. A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY. 12Z GFS SEEMED A BIT TOO HIGH
ON QPF TUESDAY...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOOK FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. FAST WEST/NORTHWEST
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR EARLY...WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE 20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

WINTER EVENT WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IFR AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 1 1/2 MILES MOSTLY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST INITIALLY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK BECOMING NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH AND SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASING BY 11-13Z TO 22 TO 35 KNOTS. AT THAT TIME...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-016-017-
     030-031-090>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ012-015-018-
     032>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088-089.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-080-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ079-090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD


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