Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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821
FXUS63 KOAX 100910
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
310 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Going fcst seems to be on track with snow accumulations expected
over northern portions of the CWA this morning/early afternoon.

A glance at KLBF VWP was showing distinct veering occuring within
area of light snow which was steadily tracking eastward across the
northern tier of Neb with snow being reported at KVTN/KANW/KTIF.
Given trends over the last several hours...just a matter of time now
before the activity reaches the northern CWA...around 12z per both
the HRRR/RAP13.

Increasing moist isentropic upglide will promote accumulating
snowfall persist through the morning hours with maximum ascent
coincident to moist dendritic layer. As mentioned...concentration of
snowfall will be over the northern CWA through the day where
lowest condensation pres deficits will reside with around an inch
or so possible. At this point...it appears that the greatest snow
totals though will be found across ern SD/srn MN/nrn IA where
850mb-700mb ageostrophic forcing will be most prevalent.

For tonight...lingering light snow or flurries will be possible to
the north up through the early evening hours. Still cold on Sunday
as relatively strong sfc high remains in control over the region.

On Monday...models prog an unorganized area of sfc low pressure over
western SD Hills allowing a moderate warm air advection feed to push
into portion of the southwestern CWA. Time-sections at that time
clearly show a modest rebound in temps with aftn highs possibly
pushing into the low 40s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

General agreement between the GFS/ECM very broad upper level trof
will extend across the conus through the early part of next week
before becoming more amplified heading into next weekend. By
then...models prog a deep positive tilt longwave trof becoming
established over the western states. Snow chances during through the
extended periods pretty much thermal driven with both the GFS and
ECM suggesting the potential appreciable amounts. Of course, too
far out at this time to have any confidence in regards to what is
being advertised.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Drier air has worked into the western parts of the forecast area
and clouds will be variable for a while overnight at KLNK and KOFK
before filling back in. Expect light snow to start at KOFK toward
11Z and then continue much of the morning. Did also mention some
visibility restriction to 4 miles with light snow at KOMA. Band
of precipitation may stay north of KLNK. Southeast winds will
increase a little by mid morning Saturday.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Miller



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