Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 211115
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD AND TIMING OF SYSTEM COMING INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
DID CHANGE TO A FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NAM...GFS AND EURO ALL
SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION IN PLACING PRECIP AXIS INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 12Z THU.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE PERIOD. LITTLE COOLING COMING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH UPPER RIDGE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE WEEKEND AND DRY WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
THE GFS AND EURO HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH UPPER TROUGH
COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...APPEARS SOME LOW POPS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOULD TREND COOLER AFTER SUNDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY JUST
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS IN THE 3000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BIT OF FOG AND ISOLD SHRA
OR TSRA...BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY FOG OR PCPN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER


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