Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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561
FXUS63 KOAX 251108
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
608 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

WV imagery this morning showing revealing a well amplified upper
ridge building into the nrn/cntrl Plains with a stout vort max
in southwestern Canada moving along the U.S.?canadian border.

Both HRRR/RAP13 suggest a series of impulses/cold pockets associated
with the northern tier upper low will contribute to popping off a
few showers mainly this afternoon and evening as steepening mid
level lapse rates envelop the region. However...given limited
moisture/instability along with stiff condensation pressure deficits
to overcome...showers will likely be isolated in nature.

Late Friday afternoon...models in good agreement focusing the
development of a cluster of storms in the southwest Neb panhandle
within region of cyclonic turning low level geostrophic winds
intersecting with 850mb frontogenetic forcing. Storms...possibly
forming into a weak complex...are progged to eventually reaching the
CWA shortly after midnight. Reasonable to assume a few locations
will see generous rainfall accumulations through Saturday afternoon
given PWS 1.5" and KI 35-40. Expect lingering precip will be at a
close Saturday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The medium range models appear to be in agreement dry conditions
will prevail Sunday through Tuesday with max temps hovering just a
bit below normal in the mid 70s. Wednesday/Wednesday night...a few
impulses riding down the front end of an upper level ridge
situated over the western CONUS may pop off another round of
isolated showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Lower to mid-tropospheric warm advection along a nocturnally
veering low-level jet has fostered a north-south band of widely
scattered showers which were advancing into eastern NE as of 11z.
We will include a mention of VCSH for the next couple of hours at
KOFK and KLNK, however confidence in this activity reaching KOMA
remains low at this time. Thereafter, expect gusty south winds to
develop by mid morning and continue into early evening with
scattered to broken mid and high-level cloudiness. Thunderstorms
developing over the central High Plains this afternoon could
affect KLNK and KOMA late tonight. Confidence in this scenario
remains too low to mention in the current forecast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead



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