Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 032108
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES BUT WILL HAVE
TO ADDRESS SOME LIGHT PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PRIMARY FEATURES OF CONCERN FROM THE UPPER AIR CHARTS AT 12Z THIS
MORNING INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING. AT 300 MB STRONG WINDS EXTENDED FROM
OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA UP INTO NEBRASKA (145 KNOT MAX OVER KOAX)
AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY. A BROAD AREA OF
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS EXTENDED FROM CANADA DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO...
WITH A MAX OF AROUND 180 METERS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ANOTHER
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS WAS NOTED AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW THAT WAS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE. AT 850 MB...A POCKET OF COLD AIR WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT BUT THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...AND WILL INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM AROUND
COLUMBUS SOUTH TO SEWARD/LINCOLN/FAIRBURY/BEATRICE/PAWNEE CITY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS IS TO THE SOUTH. ON WEDNESDAY...SOME FLURRIES
COULD DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO OUR AREA. WEAK RETURN
FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY 12Z THURSDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE THURSDAY AND HELP PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...BUT SOME SPOTS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA MAY ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 20S.

FAVORABLE WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP MIX DOWN WARMER AIR FROM ALOFT
AND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE MOST LOCATIONS ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THIS
PERIOD. INITIALLY A RIDGE WILL BE OUT OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR THE DATE
LINE...A MODERATELY STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR 38N/150W...A
RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL BE
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THE FLOW
EVEN STARTS TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL
FAVOR A WARMER PATTERN THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. FOR NOW...
IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT USUALLY THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERNS
TURN WET AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 23Z THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
06Z. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THEN LIFT TO VFR
THEREAFTER. KLNK MAY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME AFTER
09Z AS NORTHERN EDGE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM BRUSHES THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.