Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 271815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
115 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Area of cool high pressure continues to build southeast across the
forecast area allowing winds to become light and variable in our
western areas. A clearing line continues to slowly move east and
morning temperatures continue to drop to below freezing in clear
areas. Although temps under the blanket of clouds are above
freezing, we are going to continue frost/freeze headlines with any
additional clearing allowing temperatures to drop by sunrise.

After a chilly start to the day, dry and cool conditions
are expected through much of the day with light winds as the
surface ridge axis slides east over the area. By this afternoon,
an upper-level shortwave will move east out of the Colorado
Rockies providing large scale motion for ascent across northern
Kansas and southern Nebraska. Point forecast soundings indicate
quite a bit of dry air to overcome preventing much, if any, pcpn
north of I-80 before 03z. Pops will gradually increase and spread
north overnight as additional shortwave energy rotates around
a developing upper level low over the western CONUS. Forcing for
ascent should subside quickly by Friday afternoon while a
cooler/drier airmass drops out of the Dakotas.

Attention turns to strengthening western upper low which is
forecast to deepen over the Four Corners region late Friday night
and drift east/northeast across Kansas and into northern Missouri
by early Monday and eventually into the Great Lakes region Monday
evening. Ahead of this, the warm conveyor belt will bring a
significant amount of Gulf moisture into the Midwest. The
associated surface low will track northeast from north central
Texas Saturday afternoon into northeastern Missouri by Sunday
afternoon, leaving our area on the cool side of the system.
Precipitation should begin to spread north out of Kansas and
Missouri and into our southern counties overnight Friday into
early Saturday morning with rain showers becoming widespread over
the entire forecast area by Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Widespread precipitation will continue ahead of the upper low
through the day Sunday with deformation zone passing overhead
Sunday night into Monday. With temperature profiles across
northeast Nebraska showing lows in the low to mid 30s across our
north and 850mb temps around -5 to 0C, there is a potential for
some snowfall accumulations, especially across northeast Nebraska.
Have bumped Sunday/Sunday night winds up to the breezy category
with strong momentum transfer around the backside of the system.

Precipitation could linger into early Monday depending on timing of
the system, with a rapid warm up into the 60s for Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Patchy MVFR conditions early on at KOFK...then the trend will be
for increasing mid clouds this afternoon and tonight with showers
developing. As the low level moisture and lift increases
tonight...introduce showers then MVFR/IFR CIGS. There may be hit
or miss showers at KLNK in the evening, however have the bulk of
the steadier precipitation after 10Z. Forecast soundings show the
potential for a rain/snow mix at KOFK Friday morning. Surface
winds will be variable mostly under 10kts...however as the surface
low pressure system moves into western Nebraska...the easterly
component to the wind increases to 10 to 15kts or greater
generally after 09z.




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