Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 182104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
404 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Surface and H8 ridge will move east of CWA during
the evening and overnight period, allowing southerly flow
to return to the area, impacting temperatures and low level
moisture. LLJ increases to 35kt overnight and will help draw
increasing moisture H9-H8. Short term models tended to over-
initialize moisture across southern plains/Gulf Coast, so not
overly confident on northern extent, which will play a role
in elevated thunderstorm potential. SPC has extended general
thunder area into southeast portions of CWA by 12UTC, but that
will be highly contingent on moisture. For now will keep PoPs
below 15 until extent of moisture advection becomes evident.

Whether any stratus makes it into forecast area will have affect
on temperatures tomorrow. All short term models depicting strong
surface to H8 warm advection, thus expect a 15-20 jump in
temperatures for tomorrow afternoon.  Records are in the lower
80s, thus though well above normal for mid-March, not record
setting. Warm temperatures and improved low level moisture
profile will set the stage for isolated thunderstorms, ahead
of surface front that will be entering western part of CWA
by late afternoon. Threat of storms will occur across mainly
southern portions of CWA during the late afternoon into evening
hours. Front will move south of the area overnight Sunday,
placing enter CWA on the cold side of the surface frontal system,
and thus temperatures will trend cooler.

Deepening mid-level cyclone over central Kansas will drive
cooler airmass into area on Tuesday. Shortwave moving around
base of shortwave moving across southern Kansas, will bring
chance of mixed precipitation to northern portions of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 403 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Medium range models showing fair amount of divergence
in medium range in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe
in terms of progression of long range trough.  Confidence
is low on the timing of various shortwave/jet features that
will produce precipitation. Best chances appear to be Thursday
into Friday. Again, looks to be a mixture of precipitation
Thursday, especially across northern CWA, trending to all liquid
during the day.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.  Atmospheric
river at or above 120AGL stretched across forecast area early
this afternoon, and will gradually move eastward with progression
of upper level flow. Clearing skies expected at all three TAF
sites. Some mixing is expected, but not enough to produce any
substantial wind gusts.

Main forecast concerns occur during the last 12 hours of the
forecast. Low to mid-level southerly flow will return to the
area this evening as surface and H8 ridge moves east.  Short
term models show increasing LLJ during the overnight hours
at H8 with decoupled surface. Nose of LLJ will encroach CWA
during overnight hours, bringing low VFR cigs into southern
sections of the CWA, impacting LFK & OMA. Moisture likely
will not stream far enough north to affect OFK. LLWS a concern,
but for time being, only included for OFK.


Issued at 4039 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Increasing temperatures on Saturday, coupled with increasing
wind speeds will elevate fire danger.  Mitigating factor
will be the amount of low level moisture that makes it
into forecast area overnight. If moisture is underdone,
many areas may see fire danger potential rise into very high




LONG TERM...Fortin
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