Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 290931
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
331 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

WV imagery/88D profilers revealing well defined, tight circulation
and sfc reflection centered over the ern Dakotas. Meanwhile,
regional obs showing a couple of somewhat subtle sfc
boundaries...one stretching from about NW IA to NW KS, and the other
being a secondary caa surge from SW SD to NE CO.

At present...areas of light SN over the Dakotas wrapping around the
backside of the sfc low corresponding well with pockets of 285K-295K
isentropic upglide...per RAP13. Radar trends coupled with HRRR/RAP13
output suggest activity not reaching the CWA until late this morning
with initial pcpn type RA/SN mix before turning to all SN this
evening. SN activity continues then thru Wednesday morning....then
back to a RA/SN mix in the aftn. As for accumulations...good model
agreement pcpn will pretty much be confined roughly north of a
line from Portsmouth to Elgin with total SN amounts generally half
an inch or less. It is possible though that local SN amounts may
reach an inch or so. Dry and colder then heading into this
weekend.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

ECM and GFS continue to advertise NIL active weather to contend
with along with a modest warming trend late this weekend. Come
next Monday/Monday night per the GFS...another storm
system/attendant cold front will allow for the next round of RA or
RA/SN over the CWA. However...both the ECM/CMC delay possible pcpn
mix until Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The large storm system over the Dakotas and Minnesota will
continue to affect the TAFs through 06Z Tuesday night; especially
KOFK early on. Surface winds at KOFK should be 10 to 15kt and
generally under 10kts through 12Z at KOMA and KLNK. Included LLWS
at the TAF sites with 30 to 35kt into Tuesday morning. There will
be a push of reinforcing stronger northwest winds Tuesday and
these will mix down with WNW winds 12-20kts and gusty.

Patchy MVFR conditions are generally just north of KOFK. Will
mention patchy MVFR, then prevailing MVFR with the stronger more
northwest flow. KOMA/KLNK appear to remain VFR until Tuesday
afternoon. May see flurries or sprinkles Tuesday afternoon and
included a PROB30 at KOFK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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