Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 232310
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
610 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Windy conditions have arrived across the area. Subjective 12Z upper-
air analysis indicates an upper-level trough from central Canada
into the Dakotas/MN border, with an upper low lobe centered over the
MS/OH River confluence. A 125-160kt upper-level jet streak extended
from BC/AB into central MT/northern WY/western NE. An 850mb low was
centered well north on the west side of Hudson Bay, with a secondary
low centered in southern IL/southern IN. 50kt winds were noted from
ND into eastern SD/eastern NE/western IA, tied closely to the
gustiest surface winds. Surface low at 19Z was centered in western
ON/western Lake Superior, with a high centered in south central
MT/northwest WY, and with a tight pressure gradient across the
northern and central Plains.

It might be a dry forecast, but it still is an active one in the
region. Winds will relax somewhat tonight with loss of diurnal
mixing, but pressure gradient and passage of troposphere fold
through the MO Valley region will keep winds up in the 20kt-gusting-
to-30kt range even overnight. Winds may bump up briefly to around
25G35kt range on Tuesday morning. However, the trop fold will be
sliding to the southeast, mid-level winds will be decreasing, and
the pressure gradient will relax through the afternoon. Thus, the
alignment of synoptic factors and diurnal support is not great
tomorrow, and think wind speeds will stay a bit under today`s winds.
Will not issue a wind advisory for tomorrow at this time. Did bump
down temperatures just a touch to be closer to 850mb mix-down
temperatures.  Warmer temperatures are likely for Wednesday as
surface winds back to westerly, with mid-level warm air advection.

An upper-level trough is forecast to deepen to a low as it reaches
the upper Midwest to northern Great Lakes on Thursday. It will pull
substantially cooler air into the central Plains behind it, along
with another surge of gusty winds. Have used CONSMOS to increase
wind speeds on Thursday, and though current temperatures don`t
depict this yet, could be a day with early high temperatures and
steady to falling temperatures in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Dry but active weather will continue through the weekend. Winds will
keep temperatures on Thursday night/Friday morning from really
bottoming out, but cold air advection driving sub-0C 850mb
temperatures into the area will still allow lows to fall into the
upper 20s to lower 30s. With a pocket of 850mb temperatures in the
single digits below zero overhead on Friday, along with potential
clouds, expect warming only into the lower to mid 40s. Forecast
remains dry, but occasional runs of models swipe the northeastern
CWA with showers on Friday afternoon in the instability behind the
upper low. May still be enough breeze on Friday night/Saturday
morning to still prevent a true bottoming out of temperatures, but
despite light winds lingering, lows in the lower to mid 20s still
are indicated everywhere, which would provide a killing freeze if
Friday morning didn`t. To seal the deal, the clearing and lighter
winds do arrive on Saturday, and while temperatures on Saturday may
be a bit more moderated as cold air advection moves east, the clear
and calm conditions on Saturday night/Sunday morning could again
allow temperatures to fall into the mid 20s to near 30 degrees.

Temperatures should continue to moderate on Sunday under warm air
advection and westerly surface to mid-level winds, with cooler air
potentially arriving sometime on Monday to temper temperatures
again. Upper-level flow turns zonal behind the exiting upper low,
with a trough beginning to dig into the western US early next week,
but another trough moving through the northern Plains could push
cooler temperatures down into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Isolated showers present across much of the region as of 23z could
linger for a few more hours with strong northwest winds gradually
diminishing. Model guidance suggests that winds will re-intensify
late tonight and continue into Tuesday afternoon in association
with a deeper surge of colder air moving through the mid-MO
Valley. Outside of brief visibility restrictions due to blowing
dust, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mayes
LONG TERM...Mayes
AVIATION...Mead


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