Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 292325
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...TRAPPING
MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION LEVEL...LEADING TO AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG. LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE KEPT CLOUDS AROUND
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF
FOG/CLOUDS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE THE TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF OUR AREA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH LOWERING PRESSURES
IN THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAIN
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR THIS SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS DEEP MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TO ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL SETTLING SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENSUE
THEREAFTER...AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN TROUGH AND CENTRAL RIDGE PATTERN
TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

OUR ONLY REAL CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN MID LEVEL WAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND DRIFTS
THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL ENTER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT UNDER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE AREA. A FEW ELEVATED STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK IMPULSE REMAINING OVER THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AMPLIFICATION OF WESTERN TROUGH/CENTRAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 SHOULD BE
COMMON. RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR STORM TRACK TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS OVER ALL THE AREA SATURDAY. GENERALLY THESE
LONGWAVE PATTERNS ARE SLOWER TO EVOLVE THAN MODELS SUGGEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING INTRODUCTION OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IF
CONVECTION IS REALIZED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED ALL TAF SITES. MVFR FOG MAY
REDEVELOP 09-13Z...AND COULD TEMPORARILY BE IFR AT KOMA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KNOTS AT KOFK BY 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD


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