674
FXUS63 KOAX 260844
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
344 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong storm or two is possible in western Iowa this
  afternoon, and in northeast Nebraska this evening. Hail
  and/or locally strong wind gusts are the main hazards.

- Dry, but breezy for Memorial Day.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast in the
  Wednesday night-Saturday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.Today and Tonight:

An area of trailing stratiform precipitation ongoing across
portions of southeast NE as of 330 AM is expected to shift to
the southeast prior to daybreak with some decrease in clouds
later this morning. By this afternoon, daytime heating coupled
with cold temperatures aloft attendant to a shortwave trough in
the vicinity will contribute to steep lapse rates and pockets of
moderate instability. And, despite the absence of any notable
boundaries in the area, latest CAM output suggests the potential
for isolated thunderstorm development over portions of western
IA. Vertical shear is not expected to be particularly strong;
however, the thermodynamic environment will be supportive of a
few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail up to
quarter size and/or wind gusts of 50-60 mph.

Other showers and thunderstorms approaching the area from the
northwest could move into portions of northeast NE this evening
with some model signal for locally strong wind gusts.

Highs today will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows tonight in
the low to mid 50s.


.Memorial Day:

A shortwave trough passing to our northeast will contribute to
breezy conditions, especially across northeast NE into west-
central IA where northwest winds could gust to 35 mph.
Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly sunny with highs in
the mid 70s to around 80.


.Tuesday and Wednesday:

Another shortwave trough will glance the region Tuesday with the
models suggesting the best precipitation potential remaining to
the immediate east of the area. By Wednesday, the models
indicate a midlevel ridge progressing from the Rockies into the
Great Plains. No precipitation is expected with daytime
temperatures in the 70s.


.Thursday through Saturday:

The 00z global ensembles are in relatively good agreement in
suggesting that a vigorous midlevel trough will track from the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley.
Low-level moisture will increase ahead of a slow-moving surface
front, yielding an unstable air mass which could support
multiple rounds of thunderstorms during this time period. While
some severe weather appears possible, specific details remain
uncertain at this time.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Storms have been on the downward trend, so removed TS from all
sites, though can`t completely rule out a rogue storm moving
over a TAF site early in the period. Expect winds to become
northwesterly to northerly once the storms exit with speeds on
either side of 10 kts. Expect a period of MVFR to possibly IFR
ceilings Sunday morning, but those ceilings should scatter out
by late morning/early afternoon, giving way to VFR conditions
for the remainder of the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...CA