Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 271107
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
507 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EXHIBITED A LARGE POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE ROTATING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM A SHRTWV WAS SEEN OVER WY /THIS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SOME HIGH CI TO THE SRN CWA TODAY/...AND IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ONE WAS LOCATED OVER AZ...WITH AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS HIGH WILL START TO
SHIFT SEWD TODAY...BUT WE WILL SEE VERY LIMITED
MIXING...ESPECIALLY ACRS NEW SNOW AREAS OF W-CNTRL IA. HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A TOUCH MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NE
CWA.

AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TONIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE FM THE
SE...AND THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER THAN TONIGHT. HEIGHT RISES OF 40 TO 60 M
AT H5 ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
PAC NW SHRTWV TROF DIVES INTO THE SW US. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE REGION BECOMES
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT H25 JET.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP OVER PARTS
OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE DAY ON SAT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.
LATEST SHRT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THIS EVOLUTION
THOUGH DIFFER ON SOME OF THE DETAILS. WE FEEL THE EC LIFTS PRECIP
INTO THE AREA TO QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON SAT PREFERRING A SLOWER
ONSET TO -SN. THE GFS SEEMS TO STRONG WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHRTWV TROUGH THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS/MN ON SAT NIGHT AND
LEADS TO ENHANCED H8 FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT BY SUN MRNG...THUS
OVER-DEVELOPS QPF. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR
LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO SE NEB/SW IA LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVNG
WITH OCCASIONAL -SN THROUGH SUN MRNG BEFORE THE CDFNT MOVS THRU
AND PRECIP SHIFTS EWD. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS WILL GO WITH 2-3 INCHES
RIGHT ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER WITH 1 INCH ALONG I80 AND LITTLE IF
ANY IN NE NEB.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

OVER OVER-ALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS THE SW US SHRTWV TROUGH CLOSES OFF LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
EJECTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OPEN TROUGH FOR MON/TUE/WED. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHRTWV TROUGHS WITHIN THE FAST FLOW AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF MON SHOULD
BE DRY ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BY AFTN OVER
CNTRL TO NE NEB...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCHC POPS. WE SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CHCS FOR PRECIP ON MON NIGHT THOUGH AS STRONG
LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE CTNRL PLAINS AND LEADS TO
GOOD NET ISENTROPIC VERTICAL MOTION. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER AS TO
THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILE...ALL DO INDICATE THAT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. WE WILL CONT WITH A
MENTION OF RA/FZRA IN THE SOUTH...FZRA/IP IN THE CNTRL AND IP/SN
IN THE NORTH...BUT PLACEMENT OF THESE TYPES WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS
THE EVENT NEARS. AS THE SURFACE LIFTS SHIFTS E ON TUE WE SHOULD
SEE COLDER AIR RUSH IN SWITCHING THINGS OVER TO SN TO END AT
LEAST. WE WILL LINGER SOME POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND WED ACTUALLY AS
THE 00Z EC IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE TROUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOUSTEAD
LONG TERM...BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...



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