Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 251742
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1242 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO ENTER NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AT
07Z. RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH A SECOND AREA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SCATTERED SPRINKLES REPORTED SO FAR WITH THE WESTERN
BAND OF PRECIP. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT POPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTH THEN CHANCE POPS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND UVV
INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH
MOISTURE RATHER LIMITED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.10 INCH EXPECTED. WAITING ON 08Z METARS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
CHECK ON VSBYS IN FOG. GENERALLY 1/2 MILE OR LESS CURRENTLY. MAY
NEED ADVISORY THERE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING BASED ON
LATEST HRRR.

UPPER WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RESULT WILL BE PERIODS
OF SLIGHT POPS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE
ALTHOUGH RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH STRONG
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPPER PATTERN QUICKLY FLATTENS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW DRIVING UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY NOW BUT
00Z EURO SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL PRECIP AS COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF IN THE FAST PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. KLNK IS ON THE
NORTH END OF THE PRECIP AREA...AND THIS PRECIPITATION SINKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAF. VFR WITH SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS THE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOR NOW THERE IS SOME WIND
ALOFT THAT MAY KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH AND CAN RE-ASSESS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY


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