Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 181756
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1256 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Continued dry and warm through Friday.

Weak west/northwest flow aloft will continue today as a weak
upper level ridge slides east across the Southern Plains. A strong
shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Prairie Provinces
will allow a cold front to drop southeast and weaken as it moves
across our area this afternoon bringing primarily a wind shift
and perhaps some better mixing along the boundary during peak
heating. Highs today should range from the mid to upper 70s.

A large area of surface high pressure is forecast to build overhead
tonight into early Thursday with return southerly flow increasing
during the day Thursday.  By Thursday night, strong theta-e
advection is expected ahead of an approaching shortwave trough over
the southwestern US. This trough tends to weaken as it slides
northeast into late Friday however a stronger trough will quickly
move east out of the Pacific Northwest and into the northern High
Plains by early Saturday. At the surface, the associated frontal
boundary will extend from the eastern Dakotas southwestward into
low pressure over northern Kansas. A strengthening low-level jet
overnight Friday into Saturday could aid in nocturnal
thunderstorms over the area. Thunderstorms look to become more
widespread through the day Saturday as the strong front dives
southeast across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Precipitation should be quick to clear from west to east Saturday
evening as the upper trough axis shifts east of the forecast area.
Moderating temperatures are expected into next week as a
deepening trough to our east keeps the colder temps across the
eastern third of the US.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions today at all sites with period of high cloudiness.
A cold front moving through will bring veering winds...southwest
winds shifting around to the north. The winds will be variable
through 00Z mainly 8 to 15kts. The stronger winds will be from the
northwest at KOFK with some gusts over 20kts. After 00Z...the
variable winds becoming north at all sites will settle down to
under 10kts. After 12Z...the winds will be light from the
southeast.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Zapotocny



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