Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 251751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1251 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will continue to
spread over portions of the forecast area this morning ahead of an
approaching upper-level shortwave trough over central Wyoming. A
surface cold front has pushed through a majority of the forecast
area this morning and is expected to extend just to our southeast
across northeast Kansas and southwest Iowa through a good portion
of the day as surface low pressure along the Kansas/Oklahoma
border works its way slowly northeast along the front. Additional
widespread showers are expected through the day ahead of the upper
wave as it pushes east across South Dakota. In addition, strong
cold air advection will continue today with highs in our northern
counties only rising a few degrees with highs forecast in the mid
to upper 40s. Precipitation should end from northwest to
southeast Wednesday as the upper-level trough axis finally shifts
east of the area. A few snowflakes could mix in with the rain
along the South Dakota border early Wednesday morning but no
accumulation is anticipated.

Have continued mention of patchy frost in our northern counties
Thursday morning with lows in the low 30s. Will continue to
monitor for any headlines that may be needed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Dry conditions are expected Thursday before a series of upper
troughs swing through the region through the weekend. Significant
differences continue with the medium range models with the 00z GFS
giving the area significant precipitation Friday while the 00z
ECMWF remains fairly light with its QPF by keeping the strongest
forcing to our south.

Heading into the weekend, the pattern will remain cool as a
deepening mid/upper level trough digs across the Four Corners
region and quickly moves into eastern Nebraska by Sunday.
Continued precipitation is expected with this system with cold air
working south. Some mix with light snow is possible before the
system exits to the east on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

IFR to low MVFR cigs will overspread all eastern Nebraska TAF
sites between 18Z and 00Z, and continue through most of the TAF
period. Cigs should generally average FL008 to FL015 with north
winds 15 to 20kt. Scattered showers in northeast Nebraska will
initially dissipate early in the TAF period, then redevelop by 00Z
and continue through about 06Z. Southeast development toward KOMA
and KLNK is in question, and would expect only isolated showers
at these sites.




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