952
FXUS63 KFGF 221017
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
417 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impacts to holiday travel are possible Tuesday and Wednesday,
  with a 40 to 50 percent chance for minor winter impacts.

- A colder and more active pattern is possible for the second
  half of next week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...Synopsis...

Northwest flow prevails today across the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest following a weak shortwave passage. This trough quickly
moves eastward, giving way to H5 ridging and westerly flow aloft. As
such, temperatures are expected to increase into the 40s to low 50s
this afternoon, with slightly warmer temps for Sunday. While this
ridge is traversing east, low pressure forms in the southwestern US,
then moves northeastward into the Central Plains by Monday.
Troughing forms off the Pacific Northwest Sunday into Monday, which
will move into the Northern Plains by Monday, interacting with the
southwestern low as we head into Monday night and Tuesday. This will
set the stage for potential winter impacts Tuesday into Wednesday as
the upper low is pulled into the larger trough. Much colder air
settles into the area as this system moves east of the area heading
into Wednesday. Additional shortwave activity is showing up in the
ensemble guidance, suggesting a potentially active pattern
continuing into the end of the week and the weekend.

...Travel Impacts Possible Tues and Wed...

Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for winter impacts
as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. A complex system is gaining
ensemble support, with better agreement in the last several runs. An
upper trough, moving southeast out of the Pacific Northwest, is
expected to encounter H5 low pressure, moving northeast out of the
southwestern US. There is still some uncertainty regarding the
location of the constructive interaction; however, the range of
potential solutions has gotten smaller in the last several runs. At
this time, there is a 40 percent chance for minor winter impacts in
eastern North Dakota and about a 50 percent chance for portions of
northwest Minnesota. Accumulating snow will be possible with this
system; however, amounts will depend on when the two systems
interact. Given the current guidance, there is a 40 percent chance
for 2 or more inches of snow across much of the area. It is worth
noting that the 10th and 90th percentiles range from a trace to
nearly 8 inches, thus highlighting the variability of the different
scenarios. Both the median and mean show the potential for around 2
inches.

...Active Winter Pattern Persists into the Weekend...

Signals are increasingly consistent regarding the persistence of
active weather into the end of the week and the weekend. Ensembles
show several H5 troughs traversing the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest, bringing reinforcing cold air as well as opportunities for
additional precipitation. Confidence is low regarding accumulating
snow potential at this time due to a large degree of ensemble
spread.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1151 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

All sites VFR with mostly mid and high clouds lingering over the
area. Southeast winds in the 5 to 10 kt range will shift to the
southwest and then west to northwest overnight. Models are less
pessimistic with bringing in some MVFR ceilings for the MN
airports, so backed off a bit although kept some MVFR conditions
at KBJI for a while this morning. Conditions should return to
VFR by tomorrow afternoon for all sites with northwest winds
picking up and gusting above 20 kts at times.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR