Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271303
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
703 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Fog cover much of the REd river Valley this morning. Will extend fog
advisory until noon. No other changes at this update.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Water vapor loop indicated upper level trough was located over
northern AZ with an upper jet digging a secondary trough off the CA
coast. AZ low will move into northeast SD Mon night. Rain will move
into the southern zones by late this afternoon and will spread north
Sun night. May some snow mixed at the leading edge of precip and
snow for the western zones for tonight.

Fog was over much of MN and adjacent parts of eastern ND. Southeast
wind will bring fog/low cloud into the area today. Will keep fog
advisory for this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The most significant period in the long term could be Wednesday as
our next winter weather system continues to slowly accumulate snow
over the forecast area with the surface low shifting into northeast
MN and northwest WI.  The upper low should be between Duluth and
Minneapolis area with short waves rotating around the low brining
continued spurts of snow over the region.  As the surface low pulls
into northern Wisconsin Wednesday night, the heavier snowfall should
shift east of the valley.  Accumulating snowfall should end by
Thursday morning however light snow or flurries may continue into
Friday with the cyclonic flow aloft bringing some weaker shortwaves
over the area.  In general a couple of inches of additional snowfall
is possible from Wednesday morning to around noon Thursday.

Some breezy winds will be a concern on Wednesday as the tighter
pressure gradient slides over the valley with the low departing to
the east.  At the current time fairly unidirectional flow up to H850
should produce 15 to 25 mph winds or a bit higher with stronger cold
advection behind the low.  How much this impacts surface
visibilities will be dependent on how much snow falls Monday and
Tuesday, but some minor drifting is possible from the falling snow
alone.

By Thursday night into Friday the upper low finally moves off into
eastern Canada however the cyclonic flow continues aloft until a
ridge begins to slide over the area Friday night into Saturday.  This
will bring a dry weekend with daytime highs around the freezing
mark...and daytime highs will vary depending on snow depth
accumulated over the five days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

IFR conditions were across much of the area except the Devils Lake
basin with cigs under 1 thousand ft and visibilities under 1 mile.
Expect IFR conditions for the morning. Fog should lift by late
morning or early afternoon. However cigs will likely remain IFR
throughout today and tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ008-016-027>030-
     038-039-049-052-053.

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hoppes
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Hoppes



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