Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 130434
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Seeing some cirrus from the decaying storms in SD spreading into
the western FA now. Also seeing some lower clouds in north
central ND that may be associated with the denser smoke and lower
visibilities there. Some of this cloud cover will linger into the
late night hours. Not as confident the lower visibilities from
the smoke will affect our FA, so will continue to monitor them for
now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Wind shift moving into the northwestern portion of the FA this
afternoon will stall out in a few hours across the northern third
of the area. Will continue a slight shower mention in the southern
valley overnight as SFC trough in SD with convection ongoing near
the Blackhills lifts NE this evening into the overnight. RAP and
latest runs of HRRR do show some activity reaching the southern
valley near 10 to 12z. Also of some concern will be fog potential
overnight with stalled boundary and light winds along this
feature. Airmass dewpoints are in the 50s and 60s and with clear
skies and light winds patchy fog does appear possible. Will
continue to monitor the potential with lows expected to fall into
the mid 50s and low 60s, near dewpoint values.

Aforementioned boundary will help create a tight baroclinic zone
tomorrow afternoon with max temps in the north along the Intl
border in the upper 70s compared to across the central valley and
areas to the south temps will be pushing near 90 again. The
boundary will slowly work southward in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Models are in general agreement for this forecast period. By
Wednesday night and Thursday, the weather pattern changes and
becomes more unsettled as southwest flow aloft begins to dominate,
and an upper level trof digs in the intermountain west. Surface
features indicate a relative open Gulf so expect some decent
moisture transport ahead of the slow progressing surface system.
As the surface system progresses slowly across the northern
Plains, more beneficial rain amounts are anticipated, mainly in
the one to two inch range. Otherwise, expect much cooler and
cloudy conditions to be in place through Monday, with highs mainly
in the 60s to near 70. By the end of the period, a slow warming
trend will take place, with scattered showers expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Expect a little more smoke around the TAF sites for this TAF
period, so kept a FEW250 layer to account for that. May be a
little thicker at times, but that is always hard to judge.
Otherwise wind speeds will continue to remain on the lower side as
well. Not sure vsbys will be affect, so will continue to monitor
that for now, and not mention in the TAFs.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Godon



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