Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 161530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
930 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Issued at 930 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Tweaked cloud cover a bit for some high clouds over the far north
and southern counties. Do not think the clouds will have much of
an affect on temperatures so kept highs today in the upper
teens/low 20s and slightly higher in the trees.


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 700 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Some MVFR conditions may occur this morning over the southeast zones
with light fog occurring. MVFR conditions can be expected again
Tuesday morning over the southeast zones with fog developing.
Satellite loop indicated a mostly clear sky over the area except the
far north and the far northwest. Cigs were generally over
12 thousand ft.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

500mb ridging over the northern plains on Thursday begins to slowly
shift east on Friday. 850mb temps continue to look very mild through
this time frame. Main question will be the degree of mixing, with
fairly light south winds throughout. High temps look to rise above
freezing both days and will probably be warmer over the treed area
of our MN FA. This is much like a spring melt scenario, which
results in fog overnight. How any fog burns or does not burn off
during the day then affects temps the next day.

A blocking pattern over the eastern states develops by the
Saturday/Sunday time frame. Therefore short wave energy over the
central plains on Saturday morning lifts northward and into the FA
during the afternoon. By Sunday another 500mb low forms over the
southern plains, while the northern piece continues to affect this
FA. Guidance brings in chances for light pcpn, which seems to make
sense. Models do show cooler 850mb temps both days, although
guidance does not show much change from Thursday/Friday highs. How
this turns out will mainly affect pcpn type, with the current
forecast calling for mixed pcpn.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

VFR through the period with no cigs anticipated.




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